The U.S.-China trade war has entered a new and dangerous phase. Both countries have adopted a series of punitive measures designed to inflict significant economic harm on the other, raising the risks of an unconstrained economic conflict. Like all wars, trade wars are easier to begin than they are to end.

It’s too early to say what India’s decision to revoke the semiautonomous status of Kashmir will mean for long-term stability in South Asia. Everyone stands to lose if tensions escalate further. Ultimately, China—not India or Pakistan—will likely tip the balance in a region teetering yet again on the brink.