Mexico’s presidential election is still a year away. But the likely winner of the 2024 contest is being chosen now, as President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s Morena party begins choosing its candidate. Morena has become such a juggernaut that there’s only a vanishing chance its rivals will defeat the party’s standard-bearer next year.
Like all public health crises, Peru’s worst-ever dengue fever outbreak has political roots and implications. The ongoing crisis following former President Pedro Castillo’s ouster last year is affecting the government’s and region’s responses to the outbreak. And the outcome could determine the fate of current President Dina Boluarte.
Guatemala might be holding general elections on June 25, but it is rapidly losing its claim to be a democracy. A cohort of predatory factions has been jointly coopting independent institutions and pushing opponents into exile or jail since 2019, leading many Guatemalans to view the election as a pointless farce.
In the faceoff between liberal democracies and autocracies, the competing camps are enlisting backers across the globe, and Latin America has become an important battleground. Venezuela has emerged as the epicenter of activity for the anti-Western front, as highlighted by Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s visit to Caracas last week.
In Guatemala’s upcoming presidential election, change is not on the ballot. President Alejandro Giammattei cannot run for reelection, and the candidate for his conservative Vamos party won’t win. But while Giammattei’s party might be unable to hold onto power, it has prevented any candidates who threaten the status quo from winning.
Reports that Cuba will host a Chinese spy station are likely to fuel hysterical debates in the U.S. over politics, not policy. Such a nearby facility would pose a threat that should be taken seriously. But a better debate over how the U.S. should respond would start with the correct historical analogy for what is happening today.
The election of President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, or AMLO, in July 2018 was supposed to result in a radical transformation for Mexico. But since taking office in December 2018, AMLO has struggled to deliver on his campaign promises. After having to play catchup during his first two years in office to Donald Trump’s quixotic threats linking trade and immigration, he has more recently had to reboot relations with the U.S. under President Joe Biden.
Ecuador might be caught up in a political crisis, with President Guillermo Lasso having dissolved the National Assembly and called snap elections for later this year. But if you ask most Ecuadorians what they are worried about, they won’t tell you politics. They will say crime and public authorities’ inability to stop it.
It’s no secret that Colombian President Gustavo Petro has been struggling. His ambitious domestic agenda has stalled, and his approval ratings have plummeted. But no one could have anticipated the wild new series of scandals that emerged in the past week to threaten his presidency in such spectacular fashion.
In April 2021, Cuba experienced a watershed moment when Miguel Diaz-Canel became the leader of the Cuban Communist Party, completing a political transition that began three years earlier when Diaz-Canel was inaugurated as president. Now, for the first time since the 1959 revolution, a Castro leads neither the country nor the party, making way for a new generation of leaders to chart the island nation’s path forward.
Ever since the assassination of President Jovenel Moise over two years ago, Haiti has been in the grips of a political and security crisis that has left much of the civilian population at the mercy of brutal, predatory gangs. Now, those gangs are themselves under assault from the latest armed group on the block: Bwa Kale.
At a meeting of South America’s presidents last week, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva called for regional financial integration and some sort of mechanism to conduct trade without U.S. dollars. Judging by the number of times in recent months he has suggested something along these lines, it’s a topic on Lula’s mind.
Nearing the end of his first year in office, and facing local elections just around the corner, Colombian President Gustavo Petro can boast of few major political victories. His “Total Peace” plan for a country long wracked by conflict has suffered serious setbacks, and his most ambitious political reforms have been stymied.
The leaders of El Salvador’s two main opposition parties are reportedly discussing a plan advanced by civil society groups to field a single presidential candidate in the country’s 2024 election. It may be the only chance they have to unseat authoritarian President Nayib Bukele, but even then, the task will prove daunting.