European governments are seeking to deepen their oil and gas partnerships with Libya, largely to diversify away from Russian supplies. Yet by neglecting internal challenges such as political discord, corruption and militias, they may jeopardize their own objectives as well as Libya’s path to stability and economic recovery.
Middle East & North Africa
Relations between Sudan and the United Arab Emirates have deteriorated rapidly in recent months because of Abu Dhabi’s alleged support for the Rapid Support Forces, which remains at war with the military-led government. Now, Sudan has reestablished ties with Iran, the latest signal that the UAE’s stance has backfired.
Whether Russia in Ukraine or Iran in the Middle East, authoritarian regimes flexing their military muscles can generate a sense of irresistible momentum that fuels anxiety among more open societies. Yet if one looks at how both these regimes are coping with social change, what initially seems unstoppable begins to look less ominous.