Middle East & North Africa Archive

Hard to know what went on in that high-level timeout in Helsinki the other day between JCS Chief Adm. Mike Mullen and his Russian counterpart, but I’d be surprised if today’s declaration by Russian FM Sergey Lavrov that Russia will not veto a UNSC resolution extending American troop presence in Iraq in the absence of a deal between Baghdad and Washington is just a happy coincidence. Mullen went on talk tough in Lithuania about the need to better integrate Baltic defense into NATO’s architecture. But the Baltic is already a done deal. To my mind, Russia’s major strategic blunder in […]

AMMAN, Jordan — Little more than six months ago, the government of Jordan broke some most unwelcome news to the population. As oil-rich neighbors nearby basked in fantastic wealth from seemingly unstoppable jumps in oil prices, importers such as Jordan could barely cope. The government in Amman decided it could no longer afford oil subsidies. Almost overnight, fuel prices took off, some rising more than 75 percent. Before long, the cost of food followed suit, with some staples quickly doubling in price. The shock has not quite worn off, but suddenly things are changing. Now that oil prices have rediscovered […]

Good point by Matt Eckel at The Global Buzz regarding Iran’s ability to cut off the flow of oil in the Straits of Hormuz as a deterrent against an American attack, most recently cited by Robert Kaplan in his Atlantic piece on Iran’s asymmetric naval strategy: The problem with Kaplan’s logic, however, is that it assumes Iran is only a crude oil exporter; that by attacking maritime shipping in the Strait of Hormuz it will only reap the bounty of higher oil prices. Except Iran isn’t only an crude oil exporter. It is a major importer of gasoline and other […]

The election of five new non-permanent members to the United Nations Security Council sent starkly different messages to two neighboring Muslim nations in the Middle East. Turkey, which last held a UNSC seat in 1961 and lobbied hard in the months leading up to the election, secured 151 votes from the 192-member U.N. General Assembly, easily defeating its competition. Iran, meanwhile, saw its hopes of holding a seat for the first time since 1956 crushed, garnering just 32 votes in its bid for the Asian seat against Japan, the U.N.’s second largest donor. The results come as no surprise. While […]

When Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert traveled to Moscow earlier this month, he hoped to achieve three objectives: to ensure that Israel’s pre-August military ties with Georgia had not unduly damaged Russian-Israeli relations, to convince Russian policy makers not to provide Syria or Iran with advanced weapons that could be used against Israel, and to induce Russian leaders to pressure Tehran to moderate its nuclear ambitions. Olmert did not mention the Georgia issue at his public cabinet meeting prior to departure, saying only that he would discuss several subjects “that cause deep concern and require immediate action,” including Russian “arms […]

RUSSIAN RIGHTS DEFENSE A POISONOUS AFFAIR — In a twist that could have been lifted from the plot of a dime store spy novel, a Russian human rights lawyer prosecuting the case of an assassinated journalist missed pretrial hearings last week when she and members of her family fell ill after discovering a suspicious substance in their car. Karina Moskalenko has built a career participating in some of Russia’s most notorious cases, defending some of the Kremlin’s harshest critics along the way. Last week, she and her children fell ill with bouts of dizziness, headaches and nausea after discovering balls […]

On Oct. 16, 2002, President Bush signed the Authorization for the Use of Military Force Against Iraq Resolution into law. But six years later, neither the political left nor the political right has internalized the key lessons we should have learned from the run up to the Iraq War. Both Sen. Obama and Sen. McCain deserve credit: Obama for his skepticism and opposition to the war in 2002 and 2003, McCain for supporting the Surge which has helped make the decision to invade Iraq marginally less disastrous than it appeared in 2006. But the debate over those two questions this […]

The Arab Gulf States and the United States are adopting increasingly contradictory positions on Iran. Each side seems bent on undermining the other, potentially leading to precisely the outcome that each side is trying to prevent. Here’s how. There is a strong tendency in the Gulf Arab states to try to co-opt adversaries. The most famous example may be King Abdul Aziz ibn Saud’s propensity for marrying the daughters of rival tribes of the Arabian Peninsula in the early 20th century, but there are many others. The United Arab Emirates exists as a country in part because the richest emirate, […]

Without getting into speculating about whether the U.S.-Iraqi SOFA deal will get done or not, the fact that the main sticking point is Iraq’s demand for jurisdiction over American soldiers off their bases is telling. Here’s Iraqi Vice President Tariq al Hashimi in McClatchy: “The impression of the Iraqi people is that American troops from time to time exaggerate their reactions, use excessive force and irresponsible behavior,” Hashimi said. “We would like to put an end to that. When this happens in the future there must be prosecution of those who are exceeding the limit of the authorities given to […]

In the midst of two wars and with an “era of persistent conflict” foreseen ahead, America and its military are confronting battlefield urgencies and operational complexities that challenge the very way in which we conceive of warfare. Whether on the ground in Iraq and Afghanistan, or on the waters off of Somalia, the reality of today’s conflicts have exposed gaps in our tactical thinking and operational approach to waging war. The responses have combined doctrinal evolutions and operational innovations, demonstrating once again the strategic asset represented by American ingenuity and creative thinking. But they have also generated a passionate and […]

This month’s release of Field Manual 3-07, “Stability Operations,” marks a milestone for the United States Army. With it, the Army acknowledges and codifies a dramatic change in thinking: No longer does the mission of the military stop at winning wars; now it must also help “win the peace.” As Lt. Gen. William B. Caldwell, IV, states in the foreword to the new manual: As the Nation continues into this era of uncertainty and persistent conflict, the lines separating war and peace, enemy and friend, have blurred and no longer conform to the clear delineations we once knew. At the […]

The three short articles by an anthropology professor from California seemed out of place beside a large area map and various military memoranda on a plywood wall at combat outpost Tarmiyah, about 20 miles north of Baghdad. Not long ago, the accompanying note demanding that all platoon and squad leaders not only read the articles, but pass the information along to their men, would have made most commanders in Iraq laugh at the thought of burdening their already overworked junior officers and NCOs with articles by college professors. But the conduct of the Iraq War has taken a decidedly cultural […]

I’ve mentioned the impact the financial crisis is likely to have on European resolve with regards to the Afghanistan mission. Here’s Charlie from Abu Muqawama on the potential impact Stateside: But if you think the American public is fickle and short-sighted in the best of times, you ain’t seen nothing yet. It’s going to be increasingly hard to justifying long-term occupations overseas…not to mention Army and Marine plus-ups (that budget money is going to go to big ticket hardware items like ships and planes, the kinds of things that create jobs in congressional districts). That touches on something that’s been […]

An article by Nathan Field in The National discusses the rivalry for the “Arab street” between al-Qaida and Hizbollah, and how that might be driving al-Qaida full circle, from the “far enemy” alternative (targeting the U.S. before local governments) that marked its initial divergence from historic jihadism, back to local “national resistance” struggles. Definitely worth a read. Keep an eye out, also, for an upcoming WPR feature from Nathan on how, by misreading the historical roots of al-Qaida, we’ve misread the strategic threat they pose.

Three weeks ago, the IAEA’s latest report on Iran’s nuclear program included an oblique but very noticeable reference to the involvement of “foreign expertise” in the program’s currently shuttered weaponization component. Here’s what I said at the time: No mention yet of where that foreign expertise originated from, but look for that as the next front in the campaign of intelligence leaks on past Iranian weaponization efforts. Sure enough, today the NY Times (via Friday Lunch Club) reports that European and American officials have leaked the source of that foreign expertise — a Russian nuclear scientist apparently acting on his […]

If you’d like to see the official Iranian position on the U.S-Iraq Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA), here it is. Short version: they’re against it. Not a surprise, of course, but it also squares with something I heard about Iraqi PM Nouri Maliki being under extraordinary pressure from Tehran (as in, diplomatic cables in the form of severed horses’ heads) to include a withdrawal timetable for American troops in any eventual agreement. From recent reports, it looks like that’s been resolved with a conditions-based clause, and that the main point of contention is now jurisdiction over American forces outside of […]

Editor’s note: The following is an unsolicited response to a World Politics Review commentary from Qubad Talabany, the Kurdish Regional Government’s representative to the United States. WPR usually publishes reader mail on our blog, but we have chosen to publish this as a stand alone item out of respect for Mr.Talabany’s diplomatic stature.As both a news and analysis journal, WPR recognizes that some articles it publishes will provoke differences of opinion and disagreements of interpretation. Above all, our commitment is to airing all sides of a contested issue, so long as they are respectfully expressed. Dear Sir: The “Commentary” by […]