It looks like the vaunted U.S. pivot to Asia is going to be delayed. The ongoing conflict in Syria and the escalation of tensions with Iran make it highly unlikely that Washington will be able to shift away from its long-held priority focus on the Middle East anytime soon. When the Asia pivot was first floated by the Obama administration in 2009, it was based on a series of strategic assessments about the likely future of the Middle East. There was guarded optimism that a combination of effective sanctions and deft diplomacy could produce a workable deal on the Iranian […]

If the critics of the United Nations were to design a scenario to make the organization seem absolutely irrelevant, it would look a lot like this week’s debacle over Syria. On Wednesday, the U.N. Security Council was meant to vote on a Western resolution to impose sanctions on Syria unless the government of embattled President Bashar al-Assad ceased significant military operations within 10 days. The vote was delayed after three high-ranking members of Assad’s inner circle, including his brother-in-law Assef Shawkat and Defense Minister Gen. Dawoud Rajiha, were killed in Damascus that day. But with fighting escalating in Syria, the […]

MOMBASA, Kenya — Following a barrage of accusations that the Rwandan government is fueling conflict in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the presidents of the two nations met Sunday to broker a deal authorizing an African Union (AU) peacekeeping force in the conflict-prone region. Held on the sidelines of an AU summit in Addis Ababa, the face-to-face talks constitute a rarity for the central African neighbors. In recent years, each side has repeatedly blamed the other for arming various insurgencies in the mineral-rich and chronically chaotic territory of the eastern DRC. The U.N. released a report in June […]

The Battle for Damascus

Stratfor’s Vice President of Global Analysis Reva Bhalla discusses the recent rebel offensive that has begun on Damascus and its implications on the Syrian uprising as a whole. World News Videos by NewsLook

Syria’s Peace Prospects

International envoy Kofi Anna raises hopes of a revived peace effort in Syria, saying he has reached a framework with President Bashar al-Assad and will hold talks with rebel leaders. World News Videos by NewsLook

Fears of violence are rising in Libya on the eve of the country’s first free election in more than 50 years. Saturday’s National Assembly elections could determine whether Libya continues to suffer discord along ethnic and regional lines or consolidates its moves toward becoming a new, democratic state. “It is important to keep in mind that in a postconflict election like [this one], the main concern is usually about credibility,” Ayman Ayoub, regional director for Western Asia and North Africa at the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, told Trend Lines. “What really matters is that the elections are […]

Last week, I noted one of the ironies of the U.S. effort in Afghanistan since 2009: From the perspective of civil-military relations, the process worked. Regardless of one’s opinion of the Obama administration’s strategy in Afghanistan and despite the high degree to which the U.S. government and its allies have struggled to implement that strategy, the division of labor between civilian officials and military officers in formulating the strategy itself functioned more or less according to design. In light of the reaction the column generated, I’d like to examine civil-military relations in the United States more broadly. Today, I will […]

More than 20 years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, with most of the world’s attention having shifted to the threat of international terrorism, the Philippines and Peru are still struggling to pacify their countries’ communist insurgencies. Rather than fading into history, the Philippines’ New People’s Army (NPA) and Peru’s Shining Path have updated their rhetoric to reflect contemporary concerns in an effort to make their ideologies relevant to the “masses” in the post-Cold War era. The NPA and Shining Path, which were founded in 1969 and 1982, respectively, have not abandoned their discourse on Marxism and land reform, […]

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