Latin America is trending toward more militarized security strategies, a trend that could be consolidated by elections across the region in the coming 18 months. As one consequence of civilian governments and publics embracing hard-line security approaches, the region’s militaries could become more powerful and politically influential.
The Wagner Group’s headline-making activity in Ukraine and recent attempted rebellion in Russia has brought renewed attention to the role of private military and security companies, or PMSCs, in contemporary conflicts. One under-explored facet of the rise of PMSCs is the effect of their proliferation on the delivery of humanitarian aid.
Nearly 1 million people have been displaced in eastern Congo since rebels from the March 23 Movement, or M23, reemerged in early 2022 after having been dormant for almost a decade. Since then, the insurgency has caused humanitarian needs in the area to skyrocket, while raising thorny questions about regional stability.
Upon taking office in January 2022, Honduran President Xiomara Castro promised to demilitarize public security. Instead, after a series of high-profile episodes of violence, she has mimicked the rhetoric and methods employed by Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele, hoping to exploit its apparent efficacy, but especially its popular appeal.
With NATO membership for Kyiv off the table in the immediate term, some are calling for an alternative mechanism dubbed the “Israel Model,” in which the U.S. would provide Ukraine with the kind of security it provides Israel so it can defend itself after the war ends. But there are several reasons why that approach is inappropriate.
The failed rebellion by Yevgeny Prigozhin in late June has created uncertainty about the Wagner Group’s future operations in Africa. U.S. and European policymakers should focus on making Wagner unviable should it try to regroup from the debacle back home, while building an approach to do the same when Russia tries again with other outfits.
With the collapse of efforts to contain jihadist insurgencies in the Sahel, neighboring states are faced with acute dilemmas when it comes to the mass displacement engulfing West Africa. The plight of Fulani refugees in Ghana facing deportation back to Burkina Faso offers insights into how these conflicts have escalated so disastrously.
Some observers are worried that the U.S. decision to supply cluster munitions to Ukraine will damage the international norm against their use. But while there are many other good reasons to be concerned, the reputational impact of this decision will likely fall on the parties themselves for violating the norm, not on the norm itself.
Israel’s military operations in the West Bank have strengthened popular resistance and energized Palestinian armed groups, and last week’s invasion of Jenin’s refugee camp marked another dangerous escalation. With increasing numbers of Palestinians supporting armed resistance, a new uprising against Israel seems increasingly likely.
The true danger for NATO is not the emergence of European defense capacity, but the lack of it. A rebalanced alliance will require a new paradigm based on closer NATO-EU cooperation with a stronger European pillar within NATO. That will only happen if Europe adopts, and the U.S. supports, a more ambitious European defense agenda.
When Myanmar’s junta responded to peaceful demonstrations against their 2021 coup with a bloody crackdown, the opposition turned to armed resistance. In recent months, the conflict has been escalating, and the ruthlessness of Myanmar’s military has greatly intensified. Still mostly below the world’s radar, Myanmar’s civil war is raging.
In mid-June, attackers allegedly belonging to the Allied Democratic Forces, or ADF, murdered 42 people, including 37 students, at a school on the border with Congo. The attack has raised complex questions about the assailants’ goals, as well as the domestic implications of Uganda’s cross-border security operations in eastern Congo.