The Islamist Ennahda party holds a large rally in the Mediterranean port city of Sfax in southeast Tunisia, Oct. 2014 (Atlantic Council photo).

Tunisia’s parliamentary elections on Sunday confirm the erosion of trust over the past three years in the Islamist party Ennahda, which failed to live up to its electoral promises and implement an effective post-revolutionary political agenda after the ouster of longtime autocrat Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali. Nidaa Tounes, the secular party led by Beji Caid Essebsi, an 87-year old anchor of the country’s old guard, won with 39 percent of votes, while Ennahda, which dominated the 2011 elections under the leadership of longtime dissident Rachid Ghannouchi and governed the country until ceding power to an interim government in January 2014, […]

U.S., Australian and Chinese service members disembark from an Australian Army CH-47 Chinook helicopter at a remote landing zone in Northern Territory, Australia, Oct. 12, 2014 (DoD photo by Cpl. Jake Sims, Australian Defense Force).

Earlier this month, Australian, U.S. and Chinese troops took part in a survival training exercise in northern Australia. In an email interview, Benjamin Schreer, senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, discussed Australia’s military and strategic partnerships. WPR: What is the extent of Australia’s military engagement, in terms of joint exercises and dialogue, with China? Benjamin Schreer: In recent years, Australia’s military engagement with China has gradually increased. In 2012 both countries agreed on a “strategic partnership,” which included a commitment for an annual high-level dialogue. In September, the second Australia-China Foreign and Strategic Dialogue was held in Sydney. […]

U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, South Korean Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se and South Korean Defense Minister Han Min-koo in Washington, D.C., Oct. 24, 2014 (DoD photo by U.S. Air Force Master Sgt. Adrian Cadiz).

The first so-called 2+2 meeting of the U.S. and South Korean foreign and defense ministers since Park Geun-hye became South Korea’s president took place last week in Washington. At the meeting, the two sides reaffirmed their global partnership and also made progress in walking back a commitment to transfer wartime command from U.S. to South Korean forces by the end of next year. However, South Korea and the United States have yet to overcome their differences regarding missile defense and how to counter North Korea’s new missile capabilities. After years of tense talks on the issue between the two countries, […]

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, Astrakhan, Russia, Sept. 29, 2014 (Photo from the website of the Russian president).

While Iran is normally seen as a regional power, its influence extends beyond the Middle East. In an email interview, Jeffrey Lefebvre, associate professor of political science at the University of Connecticut, discussed Iran’s relations with countries in the Horn of Africa. WPR: How extensive are Iran’s ties with countries in the Horn of Africa? Jeffrey Lefebvre: Iran has maintained “proper” diplomatic relations with Ethiopia, Somalia and Djibouti despite their close political and strategic ties with the United States. In particular, Camp Lemonier in Djibouti has served as a base for U.S. military forces and the launch pad for U.S. […]

President Ronald Reagan with Caspar Weinberger, George Shultz, Ed Meese and Don Regan, Nov. 25, 1986 (White House photo from the Ronald Reagan Library).

In the early 1980s, U.S. military strategy had lost its bearings. Rocked by a decade of bloody, expensive and divisive counterinsurgency in Vietnam, Americans could not agree on how to use their military in a way that would both promote the national interest and reflect national values. Under the Reagan administration, the U.S. began to shake off this malaise. In a 1984 speech at the National Press Club in Washington, Caspar Weinberger, Reagan’s secretary of defense, suggested a set of tests or principles to guide the use of the American military: vital national interests must be at stake; the U.S. […]

Two UH-60 Blackhawks assigned to U.S. Army Europe’s 12th Combat Aviation Brigade on approach to pick up soldiers during a mission rehearsal exercise (Photo by SPC. Glenn M. Anderson).

Since the U.S. Army left Iraq and began withdrawing from Afghanistan, it has struggled mightily to reinvent itself and convince Congress and administration policymakers to preserve much of its force structure. This has been an uphill battle. For many Americans, the Army has become synonymous with counterinsurgency in Iraq and Afghanistan. Since the U.S. doesn’t expect to fight a major land war with another nation, it was easy—if incorrect—to conclude that it no longer needs a large Army. This forced military leaders and national security experts who believe in the enduring importance of land power to appeal for preserving Army […]

Smoke rises from a fire in Kobani, Syria as seen from Mursitpinar on the outskirts of Suruc, at the Turkey-Syria border, Oct. 15, 2014 (AP photo by Lefteris Pitarakis).

Just as the United States thought it had made progress convincing Turkey to help fight the so-called Islamic State (IS)—particularly in the current battle for Kobani, the Kurdish town near Turkey’s border with Syria—Ankara came out with a rather disconcerting announcement. Turkish warplanes, officials said, had launched bombing raids, but they had struck Kurdish guerrillas in Turkey, not IS. The bombing raids against Kurdish rebels in southeastern Turkey did not directly change the balance in Kobani, but their timing was a particularly brazen defiance of international pressure. The U.S.-led effort to “degrade and destroy” IS has put a harsh spotlight […]

Russian President Vladimir Putin shakes hands with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, Minsk, Belarus, Aug. 26, 2014 (AP photo/Kazakh Presidential Press Service, Sergei Bondarenko).

Russian President Vladimir Putin is scheduled to meet with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and the leaders of Italy, France, Germany, the United Kingdom and other European countries at tomorrow’s 10th Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) in Milan. The meeting, the third between Putin and Poroshenko since the latter took office in May, will include talks on Russia’s supply of gas to European countries via pipelines through Ukraine, which was a fraught issue even long before the ouster of Ukraine’s previous president, Viktor Yanukovych, in February. Russia shut off Ukraine’s gas supply in June, citing Ukraine’s failure to pay its debts, and the […]

Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel, front left, welcomes Japan’s Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera during an honor cordon at the Pentagon, July 11, 2014 (AP photo by Manuel Balce Ceneta).

On Oct. 8, after a year of intense effort, the Japanese and U.S. governments released an interim progress report on planned revisions to the guidelines framing their militaries’ respective roles in the joint defense of Japan. The report does not identify specific threats or discuss detailed scenarios for joint military operations, but it does provide a series of principles guiding the revisions and lists some types of cooperative activities they will cover. These principles and examples make clear that the two countries plan to expand the range of possible operations both geographically and functionally. The two governments’ foreign and defense […]

Armed men belonging to the Self-Defense Council of Michoacan guard a checkpoint in western Mexico, May 9, 2014 (AP photo by Eduardo Verdugo).

The emergence of self-defense groups in the state of Michoacan in Mexico earlier this year is yet another chapter in the history of nonstate actors that contest the government’s monopoly on violence. While many circumstances are specific to Mexico, parallel cases in Colombia, El Salvador and Nigeria can help illustrate how such groups form and why they persist. Mexico Earlier this year, violence in Mexico once again made international headlines. On this occasion, however, the media feeding frenzy wasn’t caused by the most recent macabre innovation of cartel gunmen or the arrest of a prominent drug lord. Instead, a heterogeneous […]

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg at NATO headquarters in Brussels, Oct. 1, 2014 (AP photo by Virginia Mayo).

Jens Stoltenberg, former prime minister of Norway, assumed the position of secretary-general of NATO on Oct. 1. He takes over the job at an important juncture for NATO: With the drawdown in Afghanistan and tensions with Russia running high over Ukraine, there are many questions about the alliance’s future. “Being secretary-general of NATO is one of the most difficult jobs in international diplomacy,” Jorge Benitez, director of NATOSource at the Atlantic Council, says in an email interview. “Most national leaders find it hard to manage the many competing interests of their domestic political systems. The secretary-general of NATO has to […]

State authorities seal off a warehouse that was the site of a shootout between Mexican soldiers and alleged criminals on the outskirts of San Pedro Limon (AP photo by Rebecca Blackwell).

The story out of San Pedro Limon keeps changing. First, Mexican soldiers had killed 22 gang members in a late June shootout in a warehouse in the rural town some 95 miles southwest of Mexico City, according to the army’s official account. Then the Associated Press sent reporters to San Pedro Limon, where they found evidence not of a shootout but a massacre. A witness said that all but one of the gang members had actually surrendered before they were executed. Months passed before an official government investigation in mid-September, after which the Mexican Defense Department arrested an army officer […]

An Iraqi Air Force Cessna 208 flies over Iraq on a training sortie, Nov. 9, 2008 (U.S. Air Force photo).

Earlier today, fighters from the so-called Islamic State (IS) shot down an Iraqi military helicopter. In an email interview, Rick Brennan, a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation and former senior adviser to the U.S. military in Iraq from 2006-2011 who led a RAND study entitled “Ending the U.S. War in Iraq: The Final Transition, Operational Maneuver and Disestablishment of United Sates Forces —Iraq,” discussed the current air capabilities of the Iraqi military and its significance for both internal security and external defense. WPR: What air assets does the Iraqi army currently have, and what purchases—on order and planned—are […]

Angolan President Jose Eduardo dos Santos at the Planalto presidential palace, Brasilia, Brazil, June 16, 2014 (AP photo by Eraldo Peres).

Last month, Brazil and Angola signed a Technical Memorandum of Understanding for the Brazilian navy to support the development of Angola’s naval capabilities. Angola will purchase seven Brazilian Macae patrol ships, four of them built in Brazil with Angolan personnel support, and three others in Angola. Brazil will also train Angolan military personnel and build a shipyard in Angola. The agreement is another sign of Brazil and Angola’s strategic partnership, following their 2010 Defense Cooperation Agreement and more recent pacts on naval and aeronautic cooperation. But it also fits into Angola’s broader strategy to secure its maritime borders to safeguard […]

An Islamist flag flaps in the main square in Maan, southwest of Amman, Jordan, July 4, 2014 (AP photo by Raad Adayleh).

In the U.S.-led coalition against the so-called Islamic State (IS), one country has remained relatively aloof: Israel, which has only provided some intelligence when asked. Israel has a good reason for this stance. Unlike Syria and Iraq, where IS controls swaths of territory, or Iraq, where its takeover of Mosul and other northern towns has weakened an already fragile state, it is not a direct threat to Israel. As a result, Israel does not want to get involved in what is amounting to a regional war. But IS does pose an indirect threat to Israel. And while Syrian militants from […]

Fighters of the Islamic State waving the group’s flag from a damaged display of a government fighter jet following the battle for the Tabqa air base, Raqqa, Syria, photo post Aug. 27, 2014 (AP photo/ Raqqa Media Center of the Islamic State group).

President Barack Obama has set his course for the U.S. conflict with the so-called Islamic State (IS). The deep roots of the extremist organization, the chaotic conditions in Iraq and Syria, and Obama’s determination to limit American involvement will make this a long slog. Months, even years will pass with few demonstrable gains. Whoever moves into the White House after Obama will inherit the crisis. Over time, though, the situation will undergo major shifts, each forcing the United States to re-examine its strategy. To be ready to exploit opportunities and avoid risks, American leaders must anticipate what the big “game […]