WPR Blog Archive

One of the paradoxes posed by China’s rise has been the way in which increased economic expectations have not translated into increased demands for political liberalization. But is it possible that the financial crisis will liberalize China more than the past decade of growth? Here’s how the WaPo describes the stimulus package Beijing unveiled today: In a wide-ranging plan that economists are comparing to the New Deal,the government said it would ease credit restrictions, expand socialwelfare services and launch an infrastructure spending program thatwould include the construction of new railways, roads and airports. What’s striking is the expanded welfare services […]

More proof that France really, really, really wants to be Barack Obama’s privileged EU interlocuter: France, currently chairing the six-month rotating European Unionpresidency, is pushing for the bloc to engage more and “without delay”in Iraq, a working paper seen by Financial Times Deutschland reads. . . . The timing of such a move serves the interests of the new U.S. president,as he is set to shift the U.S. focus in its War on Terror from Iraq toAfghanistan and Pakistan. The easy punchline here is obviously that “serving the interests of the new U.S. president” is not how you’d normally expect […]

The EU Observer reports that Lithuania is the last holdout against restarting EU-Russia strategic partnership talks. France has proposed restarting the talks while simultaneously condemning Russia’s violations of the Georgia ceasefire agreement: The proposal was good enough for Russia-critical states Sweden, the UK,the Czech Republic, Estonia and Latvia, which agreed that major EUsecurity and financial interests outweigh the niceties of the Georgiaconflict. . . . “If you look at this issue, legally there is no reason to relaunch thetalks. But political reality dictates that we need to communicate withRussia,” an EU diplomat said. For some more on that political reality, […]

The NY Times reports that since 2004, the U.S. military in conjunction with the CIA has been authorized by presidential directive to conduct targeted counterterrorism strikes and ground raids within 15 to 20 countries, including Syria and Pakistan, but also Saudi Arabia. I suppose there’s some news value in confirming this sort of thing, but I’m hard-pressed to feel surprised by it. On the other hand, a good part of the story here seems to be why this was leaked now, at such a sensitive moment of transition, and by whom. It seems like it ties the Obama adminstration’s hands […]

This, by Art Goldhammer at French Politics, is about the most concise and compelling case for questioning French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s foreign policy prowess as any I’ve read. I especially liked this part on his handling of the Georgia War, which I have defended: The Russia-Georgia War ended because Russia knew that it could not oustSaakashvili without damaging its long-term interest in a cooperativeeconomic relationship with the West. It ended when the Russians weregood and ready to end it, and the limits to their incursion wereself-imposed. Sarkozy merely showed up with a piece of paper on whichhe had hastily scrawled […]

Interesting to note that the election of Barack Obama has not changed all Iraqi parties’ views on the U.S.-Iraq SOFA. Say what you want about Moqtada al-Sadr, but the guy has been remarkably consistent. Who knows? He might even turn out to be right. Meanwhile, as Al-Jazeera reports, the U.S. has returned the SOFA to Iraq with some — but not all — of the revisions requested by Baghdad now written into the document. One thing that I hadn’t realized is that, with all the talk of a firm withdrawal by 2011, the document now requires American forces to withdraw […]

In his recent WPR piece on the IPI pipeline project, Siddarth Srivastava examined India’s shifting calculus on engaging Iran, now that its nuclear deal with the U.S. has been approved by the NSG and the U.S Congress. Interesting to see that the same difficulties plaguing the IPI are present in a rail project an Indian consortium was developing in Iran as well. Also worth noting is that the country waiting in the wings should India fail to back the project in both cases is China. It’s easy to overlook this little detail, but under normal circumstances, revolutionary communist regimes and […]

Among the first buckets of cold water that might be tossed on Barack Obama’s presidency is a hawkish Israeli government shoud Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud Party win Israel’s upcoming elections. But as the headline to this Haaretz analysis piece puts it, Obama will star in Israel’s election campaigns. Now, Tzipi Livni recently came down against an American-Iranian dialogue [says Matt Eckel at FP Watch: “I must admit I’m a bit baffled here. . . . Livni is supposed to represent the moderate center in Tel Aviv.], and she also recently opposed outgoing PM Ehud Olmert’s Syrian peace track. So it’s hard […]

James Brazier has a piece worth reading in Diplomatic Courrier on the Saudi-Iranian “Cold War” and how any accomodation of the Taliban in Afghanistan will come at the expense of Tehran. In terms of order, though, it seems obvious that a prior breakthrough on Israeli-Palestinian and/or Israeli-Syrian negotiations seriously strengthens Obama’s hand to bargain with the Iranians. But a political breakthrough that secures a meaningful stability in Afghanistan might have the same impact. Again, it’s important to point out that the talks in Riyadh were exploratory, that the Taliban are an unsavory lot who will be difficult to sustain any […]

Since no one else seems to be very forthcoming about offering BarackObama advice on how to conduct his foreign policy, and since I’m surehe’s got some down time to fill catching up on his favorite blogs, Ithought I’d step up and do what’s right.In particular, with regards to Europe. A big part of Obama’s political technique is to go beyond coddling asympathetic constituency by appealing to its individual responsibilityand making hard demands of it to contribute to the solution for its ownproblems. (I’d call it a “S-st-h S–ldj-h” instinct if I hadn’t made avow to never utter that expression or […]

Robert Hutchings and Frederick Kempe make the case over at Foreign Policy for what they call a Global Grand Bargain, an across the board approach whereby instead of trying to tackle individual problems one by one, Barack Obama tries to reach a global consensus on broad reform measures designed to clear the decks: Former U.S. President Dwight D. Eisenhower once advised, “If a problem cannot be solved, enlarge it.” Itis a way of bringing more politically relevant clout to bear andcreating opportunities for constructive trade-offs. Most of thechallenges we face are interconnected, and the only way for the newadministration to […]

Just last Friday, Douglas Duncan’s WPR piece on poor morale amongBritish armed forces mentioned the problem of troops deployed inAfghanistan and Iraq not being propoerly or adequately equipped. Thispast Monday, the Telegraph (via Defense Industry Daily) reported on anew equipment controversy, this one involving Britain’s lightly armoredSnatch Land Rovers, in which four British soldiers — including itsfirst female casualty of the war — were killed in June. The commanderof British SAS (special forces) troops in Afghanistan has now resignedas a result: In his resignationletter, Major Morley, the commander of D Squadron, 23 SAS, said”chronic underinvestment” in equipment by the Ministry […]

A quick follow up on a couple of Russia posts from Monday, both via Nicolas Gros-Verheyde’s excellent French-language blog on European defense, Bruxelles 2. The EU and Russia signed the formal agreement for the Russian helicopter detachment that will participate in the EUFOR Chad mission. And the Russian navy’s upcoming Indian Ocean war games exercise is part of an increased strategic focus by Moscow on the Indian Ocean, especially off the coast of Africa.

Rob at Arabic Media Shack makes a good point: If we made a list of the top 10 American global securitychallenges, probably 9 would be directly or indirectly related to theMiddle East. Therefore, wouldn’t it be logical to pick someone who isa specialist on the region? Someone who could go to a conference ofMiddle Eastern scholars and hold their own discussing regional,history, politics, and culture and not purely strategy from a narrowperspective of American interests? None of the last four NSA’s(Rice,Hadley, Berger, orLake) were experts on the Middle East. Has policy been especially stellar during this period (1993-2008)? I’d argue […]

Nikolas Gvosdev wonders out loud whether Nicolas Sarkozy is hoping to play trans-Atlantic interlocutor between America and Russia. I’ve argued before that a good deal of Sarkozy’s conciliatory posture towards the U.S. — which has gotten him accused here in France of an Atlanticist alignment with Washington — was in fact a gambit designed to make Paris the fulcrum upon which American-EU relations pivot. Sarkozy has been very careful to balance his gestures towards Washington with demands for concessions (NATO vs. EU defense, for instance), and has also not been reluctant to oppose American positions (on NATO expansion, for instance) […]

From WPR’s editorial on President-elect Barack Obama: Theworld has an ongoing love-hate relationship with America, born often ofthe higher expectations and disappointed hopes that it holds for theworld’s most enduring democracy. The United States also has swornenemies and dangerous rivals. Much has been made of the symbolic impactMr. Obama’s presidency will have on global opinion. But more than hisimage, it will be his leadership that will define the United States’foreign relations for years to come. Just as America still needs theworld, the world still needs America. Its national genius forinnovation and historic willingness to advance fearlessly into theunknown, combined with […]

InsideDefense.com has a rundown of “all that we know about the state of the Pentagon’s budget and transition efforts as the move to an Obama administration begins in earnest.” Among the highlights, this Defense Science Board report (pdf) on “Defense Imperatives for the New Administration.” The DSB’s report points out that “it’s been more than two generations since the presidency transitioned with troops engaged in major combat operations,” and makes recommendations about which issues should top the agenda of the next defense secretary. (Or the current defense secretary under Obama?) A few of the problems the report highlights: * Weapons […]