WPR Blog Archive

Matthew Yglesias flags this remark by Randy Scheunemann, John McCain’s top foreign policy aide, in the context of an interview on Georgia and U.S.-Russia relations: Well, I think first of all the administration has said very clearly and publicly that there will be no trade-offs. Trade-offs like that are kind of a relic of a bygone era of power politics. Yglesias then responds with a pretty heavy dose of snark: That’s right, he thinks the entire process of bargaining for mutual advantage that lies at the core of diplomacy — and, indeed, of almost all constructive human interaction — is […]

This Hindustan Times story about how Pakistan’s governing coalition is already on the brink of collapse (due to the PPP’s refusal to reinstate the Supreme Court justices sacked by Pervez Musharraf) reminded me to link to Arif Rafiq’s very smart piece on how America should reconfigure its strategic partnership with Pakistan: Historically, ties between the United States and Pakistan have been strongest with a Republican in the White House and an army general in power in Islamabad. In this scenario, Congress generally plays an antagonistic, if not wholly hostile role. The goodwill usually ends when Democrats in Washington and democrats […]

EurasiaNet just picked up the story I flagged yesterday about a Russian shipment bound for Iran’s Bushehr reactor being held up by Azerbaijan customs. Apparently I’m not alone in believing that the incident has more to do with behind the scenes intrigue than with the lack of proper shipping documents. And while the possibility of American involvement in the seizure is advanced, the article points out that the Russians, too, might have an interest in keeping one foot on the brake while the other hits the gas when it comes to Iran’s nuclear program. Iran, after keeping a low profile […]

There’s been a glaring absence of coverage in the American press of the ways in which Turkey has been increasingly pursuing an independent line in its regional foreign policy. What’s more, Ankara is basically ignoring pressure from Washington on a number of high-priority items despite belated American intelligence-sharing in the campaign to eradicate PKK bases in Northern Iraq. Three recent examples have gone all but unnoticed. The first was Turkey’s refusal to deploy more troops to Afghanistan at the recent NATO summit in Bucharest. The second was its recent involvement in advancing Israeli-Syrian dialogue in the face of American efforts […]

Frankly, I’m a bit surprised to see this LA Times blog post (which suggests that the Syria intel briefing photos were doctored) gaining traction. The first example is a still from the presentation video’s opening shot, which begins as a satellite image but dials in until it becomes a computer-generated model based on the photographic evidence. How do you know it’s a computer-generated model? Because the same image is clearly described as such not long afterward, at the 1:58 mark of the video. So, yeah, it’s a doctored photo, but no one was suggesting otherwise. As for the second example, […]

For whatever it’s worth, Iranian press coverage today is dominated by the mysterious “comprehensive package of proposals” for resolving the uranium enrichment standoff that was delivered to a visitng Russian security delegation (according to ISNA, Swiss FM Micheline Calmy-Rey gives it two thumbs up), and a 60 Minutes interview in which Israeli Air Force commander Eliezer Shteki discussed Israel’s military contingency plans for bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Something fishy is going on at the Iran-Azerbaijan border. Last week I noticed a mention in the Russian press that a Russian shipment bound for the Bushehr reactor in Iran was held up three weeks ago by Azerbaijan customs officers because it supposedly lacked the proper paperwork. Now Iran is demanding the cargo be released, but Azerbaijan is still dragging its heels over concerns that the material, described as “heat-isolating equipment,” might be in violation of the U.N. sanctions against Iran. A spokeswoman for the Russian state-run export company claimed the delay would not effect the reactor’s launch date. But […]

Score one for the public diplomacy guys: the U.S. Soccer Federation just formally invited the Iranian national team for a pair of friendly tune-up matches this summer. This is the sort of quiet stuff that can sometimes go a long way, because when it comes to information ops, the old saw applies: Who are you going to believe, me or your lying eyes? Seeing is believing, and that’s why exchange programs are so effective at dispelling the kind of misinformation about America that has formed the basis of so many anti-American narratives around the globe. In the same vein, last […]

The global crisis arising from skyrocketing food prices is suddenly all over the front pages. On Sunday, for example, the Washington Post began a series on the issue. And this morning comes news that the U.N. is establishing a task force with the goal of raising $755 million in additional funds for the World Food Program. WPR has been tracking this issue for several months, so given the current attention to it in the mainstream press, we thought we would highlight three commentary pieces from our archives that examine various aspects of rising food prices. First, back in December, the […]

Yesterday I flagged a couple articles about the growing interest in both the EU and Russia to update their 1994 Partnership and Cooperation Agreement. Today, an ITAR-TASS article elaborates on what Russia hopes to accomplish by updating the framework agreement. In addition to developing working arrangements for international crisis management, the Russians seem to be particularly interested in the development of a joint Russian-EU conflict intervention, peacekeeping and stabilization capacity. A spokesman for the Foreign Ministry mentioned the recent example of Russia’s contributing helicopters to the EUFOR Chad mission as a model for future cooperation: “The participation of Russia in […]

On Friday in World Politics Review, Frida Ghitis explained why talks of peace between Syria and Israel are merely a show meant in fact to prolong the status quo: There was a time when peace between Israel and Syria was a fairly simple problem to solve. That time is now past. Israel will not relinquish the Golan to a country that is closely allied with another nation, Iran, which calls for Israel to be “wiped off the map.” And Assad will not easily push away the one country, Iran, on which it can rely to ensure his hold on power. […]

Low-level discussions that could eventually lead to formal peace negotiations between Israel and Syria are being mediated by. . . Turkey. And a closed-door conference of Iraqi sectarian factions, mentored by advisors from Northern Ireland and South Africa, and designed to promote conflict resolution is being hosted by. . . Finland. Seriously, I think America’s still got a solid run of relative dominance ahead. And the Oslo Accords are an obvious example of how tough negotiations sometimes benefit from being shielded from the glare of the American-sponsored spotlight. But whereas the Oslo talks took place while America was arguably at […]

We’re used to hearing about the coming resource wars, in particular how the increased global demand for scarce energy resources will lead to increased conflict. But as this post from 2point6billion.com about the Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline points out, energy can also be the basis for cooperation between historical enemies. The beauty of natural gas is that transit fees actually encourage interconnectivity. Ultimately that’s why the West probably has a better chance of integrating Iran into its sphere of interest through the Nabucco pipeline project than it does at containing it. Of course, gas pipelines also create pressure points, as Russia […]

In an interview with Interfax, Javier Solana explains why the EU is eager to begin negotiations with Russia for an agreement to replace the current Partnership and Co-operation Agreement signed in 1994: The current agreement was negotiated soon after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Russia as a state was then only a few years old, and the EU of today is also very different from that of the early 1990s. . . The new agreement should reflect the changes in both Russia and the EU, and lay a good ground for the very wide and diverse co-operation that we […]

On Friday I mentioned that the Bush-Petraeus approach was about to go regional, and when you step back and take a look at the past few weeks, there are a lot of indications that we’re already seeing that shift into high gear. In addition to Petraeus’ promotion to CENTCOM commander, we’ve also seen a significant ratcheting up of the rhetoric towards Iran, beginning with the Petraeus-Crocker hearings, continuing on to Robert Gates’ statements of concern, and culminating with JCS Adm. Mullen’s pointed warnings about contingency planning and available military strike capacity. In some ways, the Syria-N. Korea briefing can also […]

A press release from Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: (Prague, Czech Republic – April 28, 2008) -An attack of unprecedented scale and intensity is under way against the Internet sites of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s Belarus Service and more than half a dozen other RFE/RL language broadcasting sites. The cyber warfare started at 8 AM Prague time (2 AM EST), Saturday, April 26, and is ongoing. Known as “Denial of Service,” or DOS, it slows web traffic to a standstill by bombarding the system with bogus requests it has to consider and then deny. The brunt of the attack is aimed […]

Another interesting sidenote from the Syria intel briefing was this mention of last December’s NIE on Iran’s nuclear program: When we published our NIE, we had not planned to make unclassified key judgments available to the public; therefore we wrote our estimate for a very sophisticated audience believing or understanding that they understood that in the program, it’s basically three large pieces: There is pursuit of fissile material; there is a delivery system – ballistic missiles or some other; and then there is weapons design. The only thing that the Iranians halted that we had awareness of was design of […]