WPR Blog Archive

I’m not going to get into the habit of discussing transition rumors for the Obama administration. But one of the major criticisms directed at both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton during their primary campaign duel was the fact that neither of them had much foreign policy experience. So this doesn’t strike me as a particularly inspired choice from the perspective of “hands on” foreign policy chops. That it’s driven primarily by domestic political maneuvering is a point that won’t be lost on the world, and seems like a clumsy initial gesture reinforcing the common wisdom that in the U.S., foreign […]

I’m grateful to the Atlanticist for republishing Steven Philip Kramer’s Strategic Forum article, The Absence of Europe, because otherwise I would have missed it, and it’s really a must read for anyone interested in U.S.-EU relations, EU defense and EU common foreign policy. It’s a thorough, balanced and non-dogmatic treatment of the many challenges that the EU must resolve if it really wants to assume a partnership role in international security, with all the responsibility that entails. I’ve flagged recent progress on EU defense, but as Kramer points out, there are fundamental insitutional impasses that need to be opened before […]

I couldn’t agree with Ilan Goldenberg, writing at Democracy Arsenal, more. There’s this gathering meme out there suggesting that the way to deal with Europe’s positive reaction to Barack Obama’s election victory is to quickly get our partners to agree to unpopular American policy proposals to which they’ve been signalling their opposition very strongly. Just Monday, the head of the British Armed Forces, Gen. Jock Stirrup, expressed his opposition to redirecting British troops from Iraq to Afghanistan, citing an overstretched military. British public opinion is resolutely opposed to the Afghanistan War, calling for withdrawal within a year, and even Prime […]

Via the In Asia blog, the Burma cyclone, six months after. Despite the heart-wrenching stories, the takeaway leaves room for hope: Six months on, most of the initial logistical and political obstaclesto providing aid have been overcome. And the overall relief effort isshifting its focus from emergency response to longer-termreconstruction projects that will help restore the livelihoods ofpeople whose lives have been irrevocably altered by Cyclone Nargis. Without making any apologies for the Burmese regime’s handling of the cyclone, I think we can conclude that a humanitarian invasion would probably have done more longterm harm than shortterm good. The post […]

As fascinating as the initial euphoric global reactions to Barack Obama’s election victory is the secondary wave of introspection it has provoked. Here in France, the nation’s first black prefect (the government’s regional representative) was just appointed yesterday. I’ve also seen a number of articles on the failure to keep promises in the troubled “banlieues,” and it seems you can’t open a newspaper (or click through to one) without seeing a story about the chances for a “French Obama.” Overnight, instead of pointing fingers at America for its shortcomings, the gaze has been redirected inward to examine what can be […]

China opts for deferred maintenance on Tibet, and the projected cost of repairs immediately goes up. Between Taiwan and Tibet, the territorial sovereignty issue makes for a pretty brittle posture, with longterm and high-risk investments in both hard and soft power. Pretty steep price to pay for what amounts to pride.

Two of the four biggest challenges facing French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s European defense ambitions were opposition from London and Washington. I mentioned in a few recent posts the sea change in British attitudes. Now comes word, via Nicolas Gros-Verheyde at Bruxelles 2, that American personnel will be participating in an EU civil-military advisory mission in Guinea Bissau. That follows similar American participation in the EU’s mission in Kosovo, formalized last month, but yet to be deployed (also via Bruxelles 2). Again, it’s a limited participation in a limited mission. But symbolically, it’s a significant attitude adjustment, especially since, as a […]

I just wanted to flag Richard Weitz’s WPR column from last week, which ran on Election Day and might have gotten overshadowed by the day’s historic events. But the piece is really worth a look, because it presents the findings of a non-partisan research group — the Project on National Security Reform — that Richard headed which used exhaustive case study analysis to assess the country’s national security system. And the conclusion was that it functions inconsistently at best, and often as a result of non-reproducible factors like personal relationships across agencies or individual initiative. The piece is timely especially […]

Over the objections of Lithuania, the EU has decided to unfreeze partnership talks with Russia. By a happy coincidence, on the same day, Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller announces that natural gas prices for Europe will decline in 2009. I don’t think there’s any doubt that Russia is willing to respond to favorably to engagement. That leaves three questions that the West needs to ask itself. First, is that likely to reverse Russian policy in South Ossetia and Abkhazia? Second, is that likely to make future Russian behavior more responsible and predictable? And third, do the areas where Russia is willing […]

Der Spiegel’s got a fascinating gallery of color photos from WWI. Fascinating in part because of the way the color, which resembles that of early postcards, softens the image of the war compared to the black and white images we’re used to seeing. At the same time, it makes the surrounding destruction even more incongruous, highlighting its absurdity.

I ran across a title fight while channel surfing this weekend: Arthur”King Arthur” Abraham defending the IBF middleweight belt against RaulMarquez. Talk about globalization. Abraham’s an Armenian-bornnaturalized German citizen and entered the ring to a live band playingbad German heavy metal. Marquez is a Mexican-born naturalized Americancitizen (he represented the U.S. in the 1992 Olympics) and entered thering to a mariachi soundtrack. But to show that globalization doesn’tnecessarily mean homogenization, the German and American nationalanthems were played by a string quartet. (First time I’ve heard thedescending bass line accompanying the last verse of the Star SpangledBanner on a cello.) After […]

Alexander Watson has a thought-provoking op-ed in the NY Times on how today’s holiday is observed in Europe (Armistice Day) compared to Stateside (Veteran’s Day). It resonated with a moving post I read this morning by Jean-Dominique Merchet at Secret Défense about the last battle of WWI, an ill-fated river-crossing ordered and carried out the morning of Nov. 11 despite the French command knowing that the Armistice would take effect at 11am that day. And while the symbollism of the armistice saving the continent from the brink — the eleventh hour of the eleventh day of the eleventh month — […]

A very smart take from MK Bhadrakumar in Asia Times Online on the potential bumps in the road for U.S.-India relations under an Obama administration. Interestingly enough, the Bush administration viewed India predominantly through the lens of China policy. Hence the emphasis on the U.S.-India nuclear deal. With Obama’s commitment to reversing the unraveling situation in Afghanistan, he is more likely to see India through the lens of Afghanistan policy. Hence his emphasis on resolving the Kashmir conflict with Pakistan. As for the nuclear deal, he very cleverly supports it, while pushing very strongly for the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty […]

Nothing really out of the ordinary about the Chinese Foreign Ministry’s outlook on U.S.-China relations under the Obama administration. It did bring to mind the rocky start the Bush administration got off to with China. Despite the rough transition, though, China policy has been one of the highlights of the Bush foreign policy legacy, to the point that Tom Barnett suggests history might consider this, and not the failure in Iraq, as the outgoing administration’s lasting mark. It also made me wonder about the conventional wisdom by which all of America’s emerging rivals for global influence are waiting to pounce […]

I know it’s wrong and everything, but wouldn’t you, too, if you could? I mean, they don’t call it the Royal Air Force for nothing. Somehow you just knew Harry had to be involved, too, right?

Add China to the list of countries making inroads into Latin America (see Christina Madden’s WPR piece on Iran’s growing presence). The People’s Daily reports that trade is growing substantially across the region (up by roughly 50 percent). The details are thin, but there seems to be a two-way traffic of high-tech components being shipped from Latin America to China, with the finished products heading back the other way. Also interesting is that while country-by-country, China maintains a positive balance of trade, when taken across the region as a whole it’s pretty much a wash. (They actually import $2.5 billion […]

In case you haven’t seen WPR’s front page today, we’ve got two great articles assessing the possibilities of Barack Obama’s foreign policy. The first, by Thomas P.M. Barnett, takes a grand strategy approach and discusses the rule sets a successful Obama presidency must define. The second, by Nikolas Gvosdev, takes a realist approach and examines the possible deals an Obama administration might be forced to consider making. Two keen and insightful analysts, two fascinating pieces. Quite a pleasure having them here at WPR.