WPR Blog Archive

Three weeks ago, the IAEA’s latest report on Iran’s nuclear program included an oblique but very noticeable reference to the involvement of “foreign expertise” in the program’s currently shuttered weaponization component. Here’s what I said at the time: No mention yet of where that foreign expertise originated from, but look for that as the next front in the campaign of intelligence leaks on past Iranian weaponization efforts. Sure enough, today the NY Times (via Friday Lunch Club) reports that European and American officials have leaked the source of that foreign expertise — a Russian nuclear scientist apparently acting on his […]

The terrorist attacks in Pakistan are striking closer and closer to home, this time the highly secure police headquarters in Islamabad. There’s lots of speculation about what impact the domestic attacks will have on the Pakistani leadership’s approach to the extremist elements they’ve been otherwise cultivating for many years. My hunch is that it will be a lot like the American approach in Iraq, and what’s increasingly being proposed for Afghanistan and the FATA: buy out the ones who have a price, and fight the ones who don’t. It’s becoming increasingly difficult to figure out who’s who and what that […]

If you’d like to see the official Iranian position on the U.S-Iraq Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA), here it is. Short version: they’re against it. Not a surprise, of course, but it also squares with something I heard about Iraqi PM Nouri Maliki being under extraordinary pressure from Tehran (as in, diplomatic cables in the form of severed horses’ heads) to include a withdrawal timetable for American troops in any eventual agreement. From recent reports, it looks like that’s been resolved with a conditions-based clause, and that the main point of contention is now jurisdiction over American forces outside of […]

Two of the major sticking points of the U.S.-India nuclear deal (or 123 Agreement) were India’s right to reprocess spent nuclear fuel, but especially the degree to which India’s access to imported nuclear fuel would be guaranteed. The reason being that India wanted to maintain its liberty of action with regards to nuclear weapons testing, while the international community wanted to make sure the IAEA and NSG safeguards agreements that allowed the deal to go through wouldn’t just be a way for India to get a free pass on the Non-Proliferation Treaty. India viewed both the Hyde Act and the […]

Those Somali pirates who hijacked a Ukrainian freighter carrying Russian arms to South Sudan via Kenya may soon get paid for their treachery, and handsomely, the New York Times reports: After sticky negotiations, which several people involved likened to bazaar-style haggling, a deal seemed to be close in which the pirates would be paid millions of dollars and the ship would be freed. “The pirates and the ship owners have agreed on around $8 million,” said Ahmed Omar, a businessman in Xarardheere, a notorious pirate den on the coast of Somalia. “The ship may be freed today or tomorrow.” Maritime […]

To follow up on an earlier post on rumors of desertion among French troops deploying to Afghanistan, Jean-Dominique Merchet at Secret Défense has done some digging and decided that the evidence doesn’t back them up. Going through the numbers for the 8th RPIMa, he found only two cases of confirmed AWOL: The 8th is an elite regiment with highly motivated personnel, so it’s likely those numbers are higher in other units. But for now, it would not be honest to talk of a troubling phenomenon. (Translated from the French.) There are still a lot of troubling phenomena about the NATO […]

Joel Kotkin at Newgeography has a thoughtful foreign policy prescription: Think globally, act locally: When looking for our closest allies, we may well need to look away from current entanglements in unfortunate, far away places and towards a stronger relationship with countries — notably Canada — with whom we share so much. Kotkin points out that a “. . .strongly integrated North American Energy Community, including Mexico, could insulate Americans from unreliable suppliers in the Middle East, Russia and South America. For Canadians, it would cement a stable, long-term relationship with a steady customer and perhaps guarantee a floor on […]

A few weeks ago, a colleague asked me what I thought about “the American financial crisis.” I told him I didn’t think it would stay American for very long. “No,” he said. “Our banking system isn’t exposed to all that subrpime stuff.” If it isn’t obvious already, my colleague isn’t an economist. Nor am I, for that matter, but what’s becoming clear is that not only is the Eurozone pretty well-exposed to the toxic mess of the credit crisis, the ECB has fewer tools to deal with it than the Fed. That’s what makes the failure of this weekend’s EU […]

Global stock markets plunged precipitously today, as fears of a global credit squeeze and recession continued. The U.S. Dow Jones and NASDAQ indexes were down about 7 and 8 percent, respectively, as of this writing, at 3 p.m. in Washington. But the U.S. plunge looked relatively minor next to the performance of equities in Brazil and Russia, which were the two biggest laggers among world markets. Brazil’s BOVESPA index was down more than 12 percent as of this writing, and Russia’s MICEX index dropped an astonishing 18 percent, even though trading was halted three times during Monday’s session. Why the […]

When Robert Kaplan speaks, I listen. His NY Times op-ed (via Small Wars Journal) makes the case for taking Afghanistan seriously as a strategic priority, and committing the resources necessary for rebuilding it as a functioning state instead of just treating it as a manhunt for Osama bin Laden. Kaplan makes the good point that notwithstanding the shortsightenedness that the Indian-Pakistani rivalry often provokes, a stable Afghanistan is in everyone’s longterm interests. . . .Even under a weak central government, Afghanistan could finally achieve economic salvation: the construction of a web of energy pipelines that have been envisioned for years […]

Following up on the “Coalition of the Bankrupt” post from last week, Jean-Dominique Merchet at Secret Défense has a series of posts (here and here, both in French) discussing whether or not French army units scheduled to deploy to Afghanistan are experiencing higher rates of absenteeism (read: desertion). The thread was begun when Merchet reported that a unit that had been training for its deployment for the past six months was “frustrated” and “disappointed” to learn that it had been replaced by another and would, in fact, be staying put as an operational reserve. Merchet noted that the unit’s reaction […]

Melinda Brouwer at U.S. Diplomacy flags a series of conversations the Council on Foreign Relations hosted with various heads of state and diplomacy during the opening of the UN General Assembly: Those distinguished leaders include: Ali Babacan, Turkey’s Minister of Foreign Affairs; Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, President of Argentina; Viktor Yushchenko, President of Ukraine; Alvaro Uribe, President of Colombia; Sergey V. Lavrov, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Russian Federation; Michelle Bachelet, President of Chile; and David Miliband, Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs, United Kingdom. Brouwer’s got excerpts from the interviews, as well as all the individual links to […]

As sometimes happens when blogging, I read a Fareed Zakaria article on the two presidential candidates’ vision of the world, had a quick thought about whether the U.S. can counter or only channel the emerging powers, dashed it off and largely forgot about it. Then Nikolas Gvosdev happened across my post, had a less hurried thought about the relative “brittleness” of Russia and China and the implications for countering vs. channeling them, and developed it. And before you know it, Kal at The Moor Next Door has a leisurely and very well formulated thought about the limits of both China […]

Matthew E. Valkovic and Brian M. Burton pen a Small Wars Journal op-ed that pushes back a bit against Andrew Bacevich’s recent Atlantic piece on the Army’s internal “COIN vs. Conventional” doctrinal debates. You have to gather some momentum in order to influence an institution as massive and resistant to change as the U.S. Army, especially in the immediate aftermath of the violently imposed transformation of the Rumsfeld era. Add the immediacy, very eloquently expressed by Abu Muqawama, of watching your fellow soldiers die and I think the conviction of the COIN “crusaders,” as Bacevich characterizes them, becomes very understandable. […]

Judah speculated about how European “outrage” over the U.S. financial crisis may affect the Afghanistan mission. John McCain and Barack Obama have milked the “main street vs. Wall Street” narrative for political gain (never mind the significant contribution of main streeters who got in over their heads), so it is no surprise that European politicians are eager to point the finger across the pond, even if, for example, no one forced the European banks that are now in trouble to invest in the toxic securities that are now on their balance sheets. Angela Merkel sharply criticized the U.S. House of […]

As expected, the big winner of the U.S.-India nuclear deal, which just passed the House and might be approved by the Senate as early as today, is France. Actually, that’s just a catchy lede, because the agreement signed by French President Nicolas Sarkozy and Indian PM Manmohan Singh yesterday in Paris is simply the French equivalent of the American “1-2-3 Agreement.” The actual contracts between Areva and India have yet to be signed (although I’d be surprised if there aren’t any rough drafts already circulating). They would eventually need EU approval as per the Euratom Treaty [Update: Looks like Sarkozy […]

So here’s a question. How long before the growing European outrage over the American financial crisis plays a role in the debate over European troop presence in Afghanistan? I’ve already written about the French army’s barely concealed resentment over the lack of equipment and preparation for their recently deployed reinforcements. Now comes news that a Dutch platoon serving in Afghanistan has been suspended for directly refusing an order, with the Dutch Defense Minsitry confirming the incident took place but withholding further comment. Now, this kind of incident might just be the result of internal tensions between a unit and its […]