WPR Blog Archive

Funny what a couple of crises can do for a continent’s reputation. LastJune, following Ireland’s rejection of the Lisbon Treaty, the EU seemedlike a dead man walking, hobbled by its decade-long institutionalparalysis but unable to find its way forward. But the Georgia War andthe financial bailout have demonstrated that not only is it possible for the EU to be an effective actor on the global stage, it is necessary. Combined, both crises will go a long way to convincing Europeans thatdespite its sometimes burdensome complications, the Union gives them acomforting weight that they otherwise would not have. I haven’t seenany […]

You’d think that if China is wary of Islamic separatists destabilizing Xinjiang, the two things it wouldn’t want to do is outlaw Muslim practices in the province and allow Pakistan to self-destruct.The former creates the kind of resentments that fuel insurgencies, andthe latter creates the kind of safe havens that harbor them. Despite turning down Islamabad’s loan request, though, China’s “due diligence” didn’t stop it from promising to help Pakistan build a couple nuclear reactors. Those things ain’t cheap, of course, but at least they’re C.O.D.

Forgive me for flagging this lede from a Turkish Daily News rundown of global markets’ response to the massive, coordinated bailout plans: Hundreds of billions of dollars of taxpayer money flooding into the veins of the global financial system prove insufficient, as global markets continue their decline. Stock markets, including the Istanbul Stock Exchange, are hit hard, as the evaporation of worldwide equity value reaches $25 trillion. Depressing, I know, but it’s that last part that caught my eye. When people talk about value evaporating, they have a tendency to confuse theoretical value with real value. But a decline in […]

How can you not like the A-11 offense? Definitely in the spirit of its time. Hopefully they won’t come up with a rule change to ban it. Of course, I’m still waiting for them to bring back limited substitutions to make the game interesting again. As an added football bonus, check out this video — filmed off a television screen — of Marvin Gaye singing the national anthem before a Raiders-Cowboys game, circa 1974. Talk about a time capsule: Marvin Gaye, Tom Landry and John Madden in the same clip. For obvious reasons, Gaye’s 1983 NBA All-Star game anthem gets […]

I mentioned yesterday that the two big winners of the EU’s financial bailout plan were Gordon Brown and the EU. Here’s Le Figaro on Brown: The markets are crumbling, the British banks are at the edge of the abyss, but the crisis seems to have had a reinvigorating effect on at least one man: Gordon Brown. For the past year, the prime minister has never seemed as at ease, as sure of himself and as convincing. . . His radical bailout plan of the financial sector was hailed in every capital, from Paris to Washington, before being taken as an […]

For an idea of some of the very concrete effects the financial crisis has already had on global trade, try this Economist article: Since the early summer the price of steel has fallen by 20-70% and thekey rate for bulk shipping of commodities is down by more thanfour-fifths. There are even stories of grain cargoes piling up in portsin the Americas. Their buyers’ letters of credit have not beenhonoured, because of a lack of confidence in the banks that underwritethem. At least one Australian producer has had the same problem withiron ore shipments to China. And shipowners are having trouble […]

Expect a lot of noise from the neo-Cold War alarmists about the Russia-Georgia talks in Geneva breaking down before they even started. Not a big deal, though. They’re rescheduled for a month form now, and time isn’t on the Russians’ side. Should they insist on holding onto the provinces, they will open themselves up to very easy asymmetric strikes (last week’s, for instance), of the sort that will eventually necessitate a full-scale invasion and occupation of all of Georgia. In other words, a total waste of resources while they’re trying to reestablish their rusting military (see Richard Weitz’ WPR column […]

Worth noting, given my repeated warnings over fading European commitment to the NATO Afghanistan mission: the German parliament just formally approved the plan to add a thousand troops over the next fourteen months, bringing Germany’s total deployment to 4500, third behind the U.S. and Britain. Behind that silver lining, however, lurks a cloud: Merkel, supported by the Defense Ministry, did not want the mission tobe used by her political opponents during the federal election campaignnext year, particularly since there is growing public opposition tocontinuing German military involvement inAfghanistan. Apparently when we export democracy, it leaves less to go around back […]

I call it Middle Power Mojo. Nikolas Gvosdev calls it Regional Problems, Regional Answers. The only real difference is that in addition to the coincidental benefits Gvosdev identifies, I believe that with some strategic ingenuity (ie. dovetailing with middle powers that have similar but not identical interests), we could manage to actively exploit the regional answers to our advantage. The relative decline of American dominance does not necessarily mean automatic reversals for American interests. It just means we have to find new ways of getting what we want. But we’re America. We can do innovation.

Without getting into speculating about whether the U.S.-Iraqi SOFA deal will get done or not, the fact that the main sticking point is Iraq’s demand for jurisdiction over American soldiers off their bases is telling. Here’s Iraqi Vice President Tariq al Hashimi in McClatchy: “The impression of the Iraqi people is that American troops from time to time exaggerate their reactions, use excessive force and irresponsible behavior,” Hashimi said. “We would like to put an end to that. When this happens in the future there must be prosecution of those who are exceeding the limit of the authorities given to […]

Art Goldhammer at French Politics wonders: How is it that Europe, with its divided leadership, was able to achieve coordination so quickly, whereas the U.S., with decisive power concentrated in the Federal Reserve and Treasury, has struggled for months to do the same and has finally arrived, it seems, only by copying the European model? Art goes on to answer his question, in a follow up post, with a list of thought-provoking hypotheses that are worth a read. Implicit in them, though, are a couple of points that I thought I’d tease out. To begin with, he points out that, […]

It’s impossible to assess the longterm impact of Russia’s invasion of Georgia, but at least one immediate outcome is certain: increased European travel privileges for Eurasian and Central Asian dictators. Uzbekistan’s EU travel ban for government officials was lifted and that of Belarus’ President Lukashenko and his government suspended, due to the vast improvement in each country’s human rights record, obviously. (For background, see Marianna Gurtovnik’s WPR piece on Belarus’ recent parliamentary elections.) Irony aside, new circumstances call for new measures, and the Georgia War certainly qualifies as a new circumstance. I think the EU’s handling of the crisis has […]

Sam Roggeveen and Mark O’Neil have a little back and forth and back again exchange over at The Lowy Interpreter, about whether or not the Army’s recently released Stability Operations field manual represents what Sam calls the ascendancy of “small wars” in U.S. military doctrine. It just so happens WPR’s current feature articles include a piece by Jack Kem, of the Command and General Staff College at Fort Leavenworth, on the Stability Ops manual. Kem puts it into the context of doctrine’s purpose in the U.S. Army, and talks of a “doctrinal renaissance” that is being driven by the new […]

At the risk of tooting our own horn, I’d just like to point out a couple of stories in the news today that WPR has been out ahead on. The IHT reports on the impasse in the negotiations over the Zimbabwe unity government, a story we brought to you on Friday. The NY Times reports on developments in the North Korea nuclear program talks, all discussed in detail by Richard Weitz in his regular column last Tuesday. And Diplomatic Courier has a piece on the Turkey-Armenia rapprochement, a story we reported on three weeks ago. I imagine you don’t need […]

From the NY Times (via Small Wars Journal), President Ali Zardari of Pakistan is headed to China, Pakistan’s longtime ally and hedge against India. My first thought was that if politics is war by other means, then this represented Pakistan’s efforts to find a way of waging its war against domestic terrorism independently of America’s regional interests. But Arif Rafiq, my source for all things Pakistan over at The Pakistan Policy Blog, is quoted in the fourth paragraph of the piece as saying: . . .”the two closely timed visits to China by President Zardari and General Kayani are not […]

I’ve mentioned the impact the financial crisis is likely to have on European resolve with regards to the Afghanistan mission. Here’s Charlie from Abu Muqawama on the potential impact Stateside: But if you think the American public is fickle and short-sighted in the best of times, you ain’t seen nothing yet. It’s going to be increasingly hard to justifying long-term occupations overseas…not to mention Army and Marine plus-ups (that budget money is going to go to big ticket hardware items like ships and planes, the kinds of things that create jobs in congressional districts). That touches on something that’s been […]

An article by Nathan Field in The National discusses the rivalry for the “Arab street” between al-Qaida and Hizbollah, and how that might be driving al-Qaida full circle, from the “far enemy” alternative (targeting the U.S. before local governments) that marked its initial divergence from historic jihadism, back to local “national resistance” struggles. Definitely worth a read. Keep an eye out, also, for an upcoming WPR feature from Nathan on how, by misreading the historical roots of al-Qaida, we’ve misread the strategic threat they pose.