Briefing Archive

President Donald Trump’s protectionist “America First” trade policy has stoked significant fear about the prospect of a trade war. Although certain aspects of his trade agenda so far have temporarily eased the concerns of business leaders and policymakers, Trump’s decision last week to withdraw from the Paris climate agreement should generate renewed anxiety over the stability of the international trading system. As president, Trump has walked back some of his most aggressive campaign promises on trade, such as imposing a 45 percent tariff on all imports from China. However, in addition to exiting the 12-country Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), Trump’s provocative […]

Gubernatorial elections in three Mexican states last Sunday were supposed to show Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s viability as a candidate in next year’s presidential race. Instead they checked the ambitions of the brash left-leaning populist aiming to succeed outgoing President Enrique Pena Nieto in 2018. Lopez Obrador’s party, the National Regeneration Movement, known as MORENA, lost in all three states. He’s now calling for a recount in the key race in Mexico state, the country’s most populous by a wide margin. Blaming tough election losses on fraud has been a familiar tactic for the fiery two-time presidential candidate who Mexicans […]

Like the United States before it, China has grown past the narrow pursuit of short-term gains as its economic influence has expanded across the Eastern Hemisphere, if not the world, for most of this century. Emboldened by this growth, but also compelled to look for new markets to supplement its own cooling economy, China is now using this influence to build a global economic network for trade and development, with itself as the driver. The grand “One Belt, One Road” initiative, known as OBOR, which President Xi Jinping unveiled in 2013, has been touted as the blueprint for this new […]

After a political shake-up last month, Austria is set to be Europe’s next battleground in the fight between mainstream politicians and far-right populists. On May 10, after months of political bickering and party infighting, Reinhold Mitterlehner stepped down as Austria’s vice chancellor and chairman of the center-right Austrian People’s Party, or OVP. That effectively ended Austria’s grand governing coalition between the OVP and the center-left Social Democratic Party, or SPO. A few days later, Chancellor Christian Kern, who leads the SPO, announced that Austria would hold snap parliamentary elections on Oct. 15. Aside from growing frictions within the ruling coalition, […]

Demonstrations are continuing across Morocco in the wake of the arrest of a number of popular leaders of an emergent social justice movement. Despite the government crackdown, protests against corruption and unfair privilege—known as “hogra” in the local Darija dialect of Arabic—have steadily unfolded in the city of Al-Hoceima on the northern Mediterranean coast. Last week, they spread to the capital, Rabat, and the main commercial hub, Casablanca. Located in Morocco’s mountainous Rif region, Al-Hoceima has been at the center of the protest movement, known as al-Hirak al-Shaabi, or the Popular Movement, which has developed over the past seven months […]

Bahrain’s political scene has never been defined by the presence of a robust opposition. But the dissolution last Wednesday of Waad, a major secular opposition group, took an ongoing crackdown to new heights. Waad was hardly the first opposition movement to be targeted; one year ago, for example, the government suspended the activities of al-Wefaq, at the time Bahrain’s main Shiite political party. But Waad will likely be the last opposition group to endure the government’s wrath for a while, by virtue of the fact that it was the only one left. Waad was a fixture of the pro-democracy protests […]

Since the collapse of world oil prices in 2014, the wealthy Arab monarchies in the Persian Gulf have all faced difficult times, but especially Oman. Last month, things got even worse when Standard & Poor’s downgraded Oman’s credit rating to junk status over concerns with the country’s budget and revenue prospects as oil prices stay low. After recording average budgetary surpluses of 9.7 percent of GDP in the 2000s, Oman has seen fiscal deficits of 1.1 percent of GDP in 2014, 15.1 percent in 2015 and 20.6 percent in 2016. Unless oil prices increase significantly, the country will face the […]

Colombia right now is closer than it has ever been to solving its illicit drug problem. This may be a surprising contention, since the country just measured record-breaking cultivation of coca, the plant used to make cocaine. Yet the landmark peace deal between the Colombian government and the country’s principal guerrilla group, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, has eliminated the most prominent obstacle to consolidate democratic governance over the vast rural areas where coca is cultivated. Or, at least it has eliminated the handiest excuse for longstanding inaction. Passed in November, the peace accord, along with President […]

After months of speculation, President Donald Trump announced Thursday his decision to withdraw the United States from the Paris climate change agreement. The move came in the face of high-profile pressure from a diverse set of voices—everyone from Pope Francis and U.S. military brass to business leaders such as Tesla CEO Elon Musk and ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods, and other members of the G-7 had urged the U.S. president to remain in the accord. Nevertheless, Trump declared in the White House Rose Garden that “we’re getting out” of the landmark deal to reduce global carbon emissions. Trump immediately added that […]

MEXICO CITY — The lengthy and tumultuous prelude to talks between the United States, Mexico and Canada over the North American Free Trade Agreement has in many ways epitomized the chaos and contradictions of Donald Trump’s presidency. Trump has demonized the 23-year-old pact as the “worst trade deal, maybe ever,” but officials from his administration have hailed its potential to create a “regional powerhouse” through further economic integration. The confusion notwithstanding, Trump has forced policymakers to reflect on an agreement that is vital to the interests of all three NAFTA members. But he has also forced them to consider the […]