Briefing Archive

BEIJING — Enhanced transnationalism in international systems is creating new sources of comparative advantage for nations, with the strategic value of connectedness being a particularly noteworthy example. But in an age where horizontal global network connections are proliferating, the world’s fastest-rising power, China, maintains a rigidly vertical, Communist Party-led hierarchy of information. This exceptionalism, increasingly apparent throughout China’s domestic and foreign policy, is emerging as one of the most fundamental obstacles to the country’s continued international rise. Chinese exceptionalism in formal foreign and economic policy is by no means a new phenomenon, but China, to a greater degree than any […]

The 21st century’s great shift of power from West to East is not limited to China alone. The Asian century also belongs to India. Already the world’s fourth-largest economy, India has continued to grow swiftly even after the financial crisis, expanding at 8-9 percent annually. With more than 60 percent of its population younger than 35, it possesses the world’s most potent demographic dividend. Its recent affluence has also increased India’s appetite for military power. India’s annual defense expenditure stands at $30 billion today, or 2 percent of global defense spending, making it the world’s biggest importer of arms. From […]

My first thought upon hearing the news of Dominique Strauss-Kahn’s arrest was that, if there is even a kernel of truth to the allegations, it is highly unlikely that this is the first time he has been guilty of this kind of behavior. And indeed, the stories have begun, not to surface, but to resurface, with one former Sarkozy adviser quoted a few years ago as saying, “Everyone in Paris has known for years he had something of a problem. Not many female journalists are prepared to interview him alone these days.” If this is actually the case, then it […]

Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh landed in Kabul last week amid renewed interest in India’s trajectory in Afghanistan following the death of Osama bin Laden. Singh, in Afghanistan after a six-year absence, announced a fresh commitment of $500 million for Afghanistan’s development, over and above the $1.5 billion in aid India has already allocated. New Delhi and Kabul agreed that the two neighbors’ “strategic partnership” will be implemented under the framework of a partnership council to be headed by the countries’ foreign ministers. It will entail cooperation in security, law enforcement and justice, including an enhanced focus on cooperation in […]

At first glance, the power struggle currently taking place among Iran’s ruling elites might seem bizarre. After all, it is not often that the chief executive of a 21st-century nation is accused of “witchcraft,” “experimenting with exorcism” and “communicating with genies.” Mullahs have tarred Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s administration as containing “deviants, devils and evil spirits.” Ahmadinejad responded that his opponents have launched a “conspiracy” to undo socio-economic changes beneficial to most Iranians. At the heart of the widening dispute is Ahmadinejad’s increasing independence from the system of “velayat-e faqih,” or guardianship of the — religious — jurist, on which […]

Following the revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt and the developments still unfolding in the region, several questions arise: Is the Arab Spring over? Have we reached a turning point where no new revolutions are likely and where the remaining autocratic leaders will reaffirm their power monopolies? And what do post-revolutionary developments in Tunisia and Egypt suggest about the pace and prospects of their political opening and possible democratization? In trying to answer these questions, the two waves of democratization in Eastern Europe and Eurasia provide useful analytical comparisons. The 1989 revolutions in the former communist bloc, as well as its […]

CAIRO — Following the ouster of former President Hosni Mubarak, Egypt seems poised to pursue a more independent foreign policy in the Middle East. But as Cairo prepares to change course from Mubarak’s unblinking adherence to the region’s pro-U.S. bloc, Saudi Arabia can be expected to do its best to prevent both the current military leadership and any future civilian government from disrupting the status quo. Riyadh, whose first concern is blocking the expansion of Iranian influence, has an arsenal of political, economic and social tools to keep Egypt in check. Saudi Arabia’s rulers, long accustomed to dealing with Mubarak’s […]

In what was described as a major milestone in the six-nation Multirole Medium Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) tender, the Indian Ministry of Defense announced the final contenders for the $10 billion, 126-plane purchase in April. Only the Dassault Rafale and the Eurofighter Typhoon were left in the fray, while Boeing’s F-18 E/F Superhornet, Lockheed Martin’s F-16, Saab’s Gripen and UAC’s MiG-35 were all eliminated. The selection of aircraft offered only by European manufacturers has been seen by many U.S. commentators as a political snub to the Indo-U.S. strategic partnership, despite the Indian government’s great efforts to frame the decision as a […]

India’s policy of continued engagement with Pakistan took a blow in the wake of Osama bin Laden’s killing in Abbottabad, barely 100 yards from the gates of a Pakistani military academy. Islamabad’s alleged role in shielding bin Laden — and perhaps other terrorist organizations that pose a direct threat to India — has driven calls to modify New Delhi’s outreach initiative toward its South Asian neighbor. It has also resurrected the question dogging Indian policymakers since the 2008 Mumbai massacre: Should India continue to engage with Pakistan even though Islamabad cultivates terrorist groups as a strategic option and harbors some […]

BEIJING — As policymakers from the world’s two largest economies gather in Washington for the third U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue, the Chinese yuan is trading at a 30-year high against the dollar, while its convertibility has expanded significantly since this time last year, and bullish sentiment surrounds its future evolution. Although this may suggest China is finally getting serious about rationalizing the value of the yuan, recent measures are geared toward internationalization rather than genuine liberalization, and China’s economy is still decades away from being able to support a free-floating currency. It is in the U.S. interest to support […]

At the start of the Arab revolutions, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) tentatively placed Turkey on the side of the pro-democracy movements, starting with Tunisia and then Egypt. In contrast to 2009, when Ankara backed the Ahmadinejad administration following Iran’s disputed elections, Turkey was the first country to call for Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak to step down at a time when other leaders, including U.S. President Barack Obama, were hedging their bets. In doing so, Erdogan positioned himself and Turkey as regional leaders in encouraging democracy in other Muslim countries, based on […]

The Libyan debacle has been a major wakeup call for those thinking that Europe has a grip on its neighborhood or that the European Union might one day become a serious geopolitical actor. The point is now so moot, it’s barely worth making. What’s less obvious is that the fallout from the Libyan intervention will have a serious impact on the upstream energy landscape around Europe. That’s not just because the EU has lost around 1 million barrels per day of sweet oil production and around 16 percent of its gas supplies for the “EU 15,” but also because the […]

The recent events in the Arab world and Iran have led many in the West to urge President Barack Obama to take a stronger stance against human right abuses in Iran. The Obama administration should resist this temptation, as doing so would only serve to weaken Iran’s domestic opposition. As the popular uprisings in the Middle East have demonstrated, revolutions are most successful when they are organic. The voices calling on the Obama administration to give greater attention to human rights abuses in Iran have been forceful and diverse. A Washington Post editorial from last month, for instance, told the […]

DENPASAR, Indonesia — With Indonesia experiencing an escalation of terrorist violence, local analysts have focused on trying to determine who is behind each of the recent attacks. Assessing the nature and affiliation of the groups responsible is certainly important. But the current situation may be the result of several converging trends that suggest Indonesia must confront some of its persistent demons if it wants to contain terrorism. In its latest report, entitled “Indonesian Jihadism: Small Groups, Big Plans,” the International Crisis Group (ICG) outlined how homegrown terrorism in Indonesia has lately taken on a new form, with small cells operating […]

Even for a man who was no stranger to government shackles, Ugandan opposition leader Kizza Besigye’s arrest last Thursday was particularly vicious. Though it was Besigye’s fourth arrest since April 11, when he and his supporters began holding “walk to work” protests against rising fuel and commodity prices, this one was met with disbelief across this East African nation of 33 million. A day after being released on bail following his previous arrest, Besigye was intercepted in his vehicle at a Kampala roundabout by plainclothes officers, who smashed the car’s windows with a hammer and a pistol, and doused Besigye’s […]

Chinese truckers at the port of Shanghai ended a three-day strike on April 23 after local authorities released a communiqué promising the reduction of logistics fees and attempts to mitigate the effect of rising fuel prices. The incident made headlines in global media coverage, as it threatened operations in the world’s largest port. But it is just the latest in a widespread pattern across China, with similar protests by independent truckers and taxi drivers angered at rising fuel costs taking place on a regular basis in all Chinese cities. The mix of repression and accommodation shown in Shanghai is also […]

China’s long-awaited census results, finally released last week, put the Chinese population at 1.37 billion, an increase of only about 74 million people over the past decade. That represents a low annual growth rate of 0.57 percent, which has resulted in the premature aging of China: Those older than 60 now account for more than 13.3 percent of the population, while those younger than 14 make up 16.6 percent. But probably the most unwelcome aspect of the census results is that China’s sex ratio at birth has risen once again. There are normally between 105 and 107 baby boys born […]