The world continues to hold its breath over a swine flu that, while perhaps slowing, is still likely to kill in the low hundreds and remains balanced on the edge of a true pandemic. Although only a mere 2-3,000 cases have — so far — been recorded worldwide (80 percent of them in co-sources Mexico and America), this variant of H1N1 influenza penetrated dozens of nations and all mass-populated regions of the globe in a matter of days — a truly humbling reminder of how globalization enhances mankind’s epidemiological interdependency. Has the media overreacted? It’s possible that round-the-clock coverage in […]

As the founders of the United States wrote in the Declaration of Independence, an effectively governed state that keeps order and fosters the well-being of its citizens is an essential means of guaranteeing basic human rights and civil liberties. It is also something that the Palestinians have been denied for too long now. The world seems to have delegated the decision of whether and when the Palestinians will have their own state to Israel. But negotiations between the Palestinians and Israel were already unlikely to lead to a viable Palestinian state before the election of Benjamin Netanyahu as Israeli prime […]

Mexican Politics in the Time of Swine Flu

TORREÓN, Mexico — Just as love persisted in García Márquez’s masterpiece set during the 19th century cholera outbreaks, politics has not gone on hiatus during the swine flu epidemic that continues to threaten Mexico. While the political consequences of the outbreak have yet to fully crystallize, it’s clear that the episode has the potential to scramble the electoral calculus ahead of this summer’s elections. The entire lower house of Congress as well as a handful of governorships and state legislatures will be chosen on July 5. President Felipe Calderón’s allies and adversaries are competing to define his government’s reaction to […]

A newly issued U.S. Army field manual has put people on notice: Video games are serious training tools. In its first revision since 9/11, the U.S. Army field manual for Training and Full Spectrum Operations mentions gaming 32 times, describing it as as a key ingredient in replicating “an actual operational environment.” Released in December 2008, the new doctrine is another reminder of how gaming is rapidly redefining military recruitment and training. The push to use games as a recruiting tool dates back to 2002, when the Army released “America’s Army” — a free, downloadable video game that gave people […]

We’re very happy to introduce WPR’s newest regular columnist, Thomas P.M. Barnett, appearing every Monday beginning next week. Most of you are probably already familiar with Barnett’s work, but for those of you who aren’t, you’re in for a real treat. In addition to being a New York Times best-selling author and a sought-after public speaker, Barnett is a challenging and iconoclastic thinker, who combines intellectual creativity with clarity of analysis. The result is a far-reaching vision of U.S. grand strategy that somehow manages to be both provocatively novel and intuitively obvious at the same time. If you like big […]

PUERTO NUEVO, Ecuador — Camaraderie may be the key to military morale, but the 24 Ecuadorian troops traveling towards the Colombian border by helicopter maintain an eerie quiet. The Amazonian jungle stretches out below, apparently undisturbed but for the odd small farm or oil well. But appearances in the jungle can be deceiving. Under the foliage, invisible from the air, are FARC guerrilla bases and cocaine laboratories. The soldiers’ mission over a five-day patrol covering around 25 kilometers will be to find and destroy them. “It’s a reality,” says Gen. Fabián Narváez, the commander of Ecuadorian forces in the border […]

Have we really reached the end of American hegemony? For those who think so, the signs of America’s decline and the rise of emerging powers are everywhere. According to this line of argument, the world’s sole superpower succumbed to overstretch. U.S. failures in the “war on terror” revealed the limitations of American military power, while its role in provoking the global economic crisis revealed the shortcomings of American economic leadership. As a result, rising powers around the world feel suddenly emboldened by America’s visible weakness. Brazil’s president blames the worldwide recession on “white-skinned people with blue eyes,” and Russia and […]

In the years since Arab countries proclaimed their infamous “Three Nos” policy towards Israel — no peace, no recognition, no negotiations — the official stance of most Arab governments has eased. A number of Arab leaders now openly speak of normalizing relations with Israel under certain conditions. But despite the change in policy at the top, hundreds of millions of Arabs continue to receive a steady barrage of anti-Israel, anti-Jewish and anti-American propaganda, much of it coming in the official government-sanctioned press. The quest for peace between Israel and its Arab neighbors faces no shortage of obstacles. Not least of […]

Better Aid, not ‘Dead Aid,’ for Africa

Dambisa Moyo’s new book, “Dead Aid,” is a prime example of an old idea wrapped up in new packaging. As a Harvard-educated child of Africa (Zambia), with stints at Goldman Sachs and the World Bank, Moyo makes for an appealing messenger. However, the idea on which her book is based — that foreign assistance for Africa hasn’t worked — is hardly an original one to most aid practitioners. But instead of offering ideas to improve aid Moyo takes the opposite approach, asserting that aid is altogether bad for Africa and should be gradually replaced with foreign investment. Moyo’s solutions may […]

Hundreds of Somali pirates have transformed the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean into the world’s most dangerous waters. But this Sunday, on the Indian Ocean, a group of Somali pirates didn’t know what they were getting into. The 11 young men — armed with rockets, guns and explosives and riding in three small boats — spotted a vessel on the horizon and moved to attack. The “victim” vessel maneuvered into the sun, partially blinding the attackers. When their vision cleared, the pirates probably realized they’d made a huge mistake: rather than the defenseless merchant vessel they apparently thought […]

PHNOM PENH, Cambodia — Unsubstantiated corruption allegations against the Cambodian judiciary overshadowed the Khmer Rouge war crimes tribunal, denying it the pristine start that supporters would have hoped for. The United Nations linked their funding for the trial to an inquiry into whether Cambodian judges paid kickbacks for their jobs, resulting in a cash shortfall after staffers balked at the demand. However, the Japanese announced a $4.1 million grant for the Cambodian side of the tribunal, which should ensure enough funds until the end of 2009. The allegations stole a lion’s share of the attention from center stage, where the […]

Pirates operating off the coast of Somalia have resumed a disturbingly high rate of activity recently, despite hopes that the arrival of more foreign warships in the Gulf of Aden had discouraged the regional threat. Following a lull in late 2008, Somali pirates carried out almost 100 attacks during the first three months of 2009. The growing number and expanded range of these incidents has threatened important trade and transit routes connecting Africa, Asia, and Europe to Persian Gulf oil as well as other valuable commodities. Although the number of deaths directly attributable to the pirates has remained small, their […]

President Barack Obama didn’t look into Dimitry Medvedev’s eyes and claim that he saw the Russian president’s soul at the G-20 summit in early April. But the meeting between the two leaders has potentially set the stage for a more pragmatic relationship between Washington and Moscow. Substantial policy differences still separate the two powers, but the dynamics of the U.S.-Russia relationship have shifted away from the mutual bitterness that arose out of the August 2008 war in the Caucasus. However, although energy is not a major part of the public discourse on U.S.-Russian relations, it is a latent factor that […]

For years, analysts have argued that the Nabucco natural gas pipeline — a U.S.-backed effort to transport gas from the Caspian Sea to Europe via Turkey, thus bypassing Russia — needed to accept gas from Iran if it was to be economically viable. But Iranian involvement in the project, which is intended to reduce European energy dependence on Russian gas exports, has been anathema for U.S. policymakers: Washington’s efforts to thwart Iran’s ambitions have so far overridden its desire to thwart Russia’s. That may be changing. The White House has appointed a new envoy for Eurasian Energy, Richard Morningstar, who […]

CHIANG MAI, Thailand — Thailand calls itself the Land of Smiles, and is known for its tropical beaches, beautiful mountains, good food and friendly people. But that may soon change. While the happy-go-lucky image of Thailand may be hard for many to shake, political observers — and the government — are beginning to take the possibility of a civil war much more seriously. On April 21, Jakrapob Penkair — a key leader of the opposition United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) and reputedly the man behind this month’s violent protests in Bangkok and Pattaya — announced in a BBC […]

Dear Ambassador Hill, Congratulations on your long-delayed confirmation as U.S. ambassador to Iraq. By now you’re probably on the ground in Baghdad, being overwhelmed with briefings from the embassy staff and the military. We trust that Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and his government have also presented you with their agenda for what Iraq wants from the United States. You are being pulled in many different directions, with everyone vying to attract your attention to their own special needs and issues. Iraq is sure to test your formidable diplomatic skills. The ad hoc bargains and ceasefires negotiated by your predecessor, […]

The top item at President Barack Obama’s two-day mini-summit with Afghan President Hamid Karzai and Pakistani leader Asif Ali Zardari at the White House this week will be “cooperation.” The agenda is also likely to include a pile of other challenges now facing South Asia — like the 40 percent spike in civilian deaths in Afghanistan last year, the popular backlash in Pakistan against the United States’ use of drone missile attacks, and the floor-to-ceiling corruption that pervades President Karzai’s government. With all that to talk about, maybe the summit should last the whole week. Because the three men would […]

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