The coup in Niger caught much of the outside world by surprise, given the country’s image as a relatively stable outlier in a region beset by upheaval. But if foreign observers were stunned by President Mohamed Bazoum’s ouster, it did not come as a shock to many Nigeriens, and not solely because of Niger’s history of military coups.
West Africa
If there has been a significant difference between the coup in Niger and others across the region in recent years, it has been in ECOWAS’ response to it. That highlights a nascent transition between waning Western power structures in the region and efforts to construct a new system of collective security there.
The failed rebellion by Yevgeny Prigozhin in late June has created uncertainty about the Wagner Group’s future operations in Africa. U.S. and European policymakers should focus on making Wagner unviable should it try to regroup from the debacle back home, while building an approach to do the same when Russia tries again with other outfits.