In the face of persistent violence in Mexico, citizens are increasingly forming vigilante groups they say are for self-defense. Estimates vary on how widespread the groups are; one recent report said such self-defense groups were active in 68 municipalities in 13 Mexican states. Adam Isacson, senior associate for regional security policy at the Washington Office on Latin America, told Trend Lines, “Basically, the police have broken down in a lot of these municipalities, and organized crime has moved in.” Yet while the groups claim to fight violence and extortion where the Mexican government can’t or won’t, there are concerns that […]

Strategic Horizons: Thinking the Unthinkable on a Second Korean War

Today, North Korea is the most dangerous country on earth and the greatest threat to U.S. security. For years, the bizarre regime in Pyongyang has issued an unending stream of claims that a U.S. and South Korean invasion is imminent, while declaring that it will defeat this offensive just as — according to official propaganda — it overcame the unprovoked American attack in 1950. Often the press releases from the official North Korean news agency are absurdly funny, and American policymakers tend to ignore them as a result. Continuing to do so, though, could be dangerous as events and rhetoric […]

The U.S.-European Union “Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership” negotiations, which were launched last month, are the biggest consolation prize in the history of international trade liberalization. Since the end of World War II, the United States and Europe, as the world’s two economic superpowers, have led successive rounds of global negotiations that slashed import tariffs, removed quotas and greased the wheels of international commerce. The last and biggest round, which created the World Trade Organization in 1994, was, like the seven others before it, essentially a U.S.-EU agreement with the rest of the world along for the ride. Few at […]

Given domestic economic weaknesses, security competition with India and an antagonistic relationship with Afghanistan, Pakistan has traditionally sought external alliances with strong powers and pursued an offensive security policy. Nevertheless, there has been a dawning realization in Islamabad that a new approach is necessary, and as a result, Pakistan’s foreign and defense policies are undergoing important transformations, including a normalization of relations with neighbors and a renewed focus on domestic security threats. With a low growth rate, high inflation, budget deficits and unsustainable debt, economic weakness is the single biggest challenge for Pakistan. A major energy shortage, which both results […]

Global Insider: Inter-American Commission Reforms Seek to Change a Mixed System

Last year, the Organization of American States (OAS) voted to begin reforming the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights, its multilateral forum for investigating human rights conditions, with Bolivarian Alliance for the Americas (ALBA) countries led by Venezuela and Ecuador putting forward a number of reform proposals. In an email interview, Christina Cerna, a former human rights specialist at the commission who is currently a visiting scholar at the George Washington Univerity Law School and an adjunct professor at the Georgetown University School of Law, explained the commission’s history and prospects.* WPR: How well does the Inter-American system function at present […]

Most of the U.S. foreign policy community assumes that relations between the United States and Venezuela can only improve in the aftermath of Hugo Chavez’s death. Exemplifying this optimism, the Obama administration’s initial reaction was to note that as a “new chapter” begins in Venezuela, Washington reaffirms “its interest in developing a constructive relationship with the Venezuelan government.” The U.S. response was based on the hope that any successor to Chavez will be interested in repairing the breach that opened up between the two nations during the almost 13 years of Chavez’s tenure. But nothing should be taken for granted. […]

Egypt’s National Salvation Front, an opposition coalition, recently announced its intention to boycott parliamentary elections planned for this April, citing the Islamist-led government’s failure to consult the coalition about the election law. Emily Beaulieu, a political science professor at University of Kentucky and an expert on election boycotts, explained in an email interview the conditions under which election boycotts succeed and reviewed the present boycott’s prospects. WPR: What have been some of the most significant successful and failed election boycotts in recent history? Emily Beaulieu: Recent election boycotts that produced subsequent democratic reforms include the Philippines (1981), Equatorial Guinea (1993), […]

As one of the founders of the original Non-Aligned Movement, India has often found itself standing between opposing camps, trying to keep from becoming entangled in the disputes that divide them. In the current environment, however, with a globalized economy and a shrinking, interconnected world, the feat of staying out of international conflicts poses especially complicated and potentially costly challenges. That is most evident as India tries to navigate its important trade relationship with Iran, while continuing to expand its valuable commercial, diplomatic and strategic links with the U.S. and Israel. The difficulty of maintaining relations simultaneously with bitter geopolitical […]

The death of Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez after a long battle with cancer was announced yesterday by Vice President Nicolás Maduro, who has assumed the presidency as interim leader. Chávez had served as Venezuela’s president for 14 years. The news has led to widespread speculation over the future of Venezuela and the region. An expert who spoke with Trend Lines addressed what Chávez’s long absence from Venezuela’s political scene and his death might mean for Venezuelan democracy. “What happened over the past three months, which is to say that a democratically elected president literally disappeared from his country and was […]

Since World War II, Americans have obsessively mined their armed conflicts for “lessons.” Every war spawns books, workshops and conferences. The U.S. military has even institutionalized the “lessons learned” process, creating organizations like the Army’s Center for Lessons Learned at Fort Leavenworth, Kanas, which can turn information from the field into officially sanctioned lessons in short order. Within the policy community, where there are no generals and admirals to decide which lessons are worth learning and which are not, it normally takes a few years to reach agreement on the lessons of a given conflict — time allows perspective and […]

President Hugo Chávez’s return to Venezuela has not resolved the political uncertainty that the country has faced since he was unable to take the oath of office on Jan. 10. The day before, the Supreme Court ruled that he could be sworn in when he overcame his health problems and gave no deadline, effectively allowing an unelected vice president to remain in charge indefinitely. Opposition politicians and analysts, questioning the legitimacy of the current arrangement, have called for the court to declare Chávez in a “temporary absence” from the presidency — which the constitution allows for a maximum of six […]

The past two decades have brought dramatic swings in the pace and extent of Latin American natural gas and electricity integration. Enthusiasm among the region’s investors and governments has waxed and waned as the economic and political drivers of cross-border investment and cooperation have evolved. Recent technological developments that have unlocked shale gas resources in the United States will be extended to Latin America. At the same time, renewed political momentum for regional economic cooperation and trade also extends to the energy sector. As a result, a new phase of regional energy integration is gathering pace, but it will be […]

At last month’s NATO defense ministerial meeting, one of the main topics of discussion concerned how many coalition forces will remain in Afghanistan beyond 2014, as well as what their mission will be and how rapidly to withdraw forces that will be departing. After almost 12 years of U.S. and coalition combat operations, the durability of recent gains remains under question as NATO withdraws its forces and reduces its other military support to the Afghan government, making it essential that the alliance plan carefully for drawing down its operations in the country. The numbers under consideration at February’s meeting assumed […]

As South America’s middle class continues to grow, two important political priorities will increasingly clash: the need to meet growing energy demand, and an increasing sensitivity to the environment. Until these legitimate interests can be reconciled, however, the massive investment required to meet burgeoning energy demand across the region will be less likely to materialize. Brazil, whose Belo Monte Dam project is one of the most ambitious public works projects in the region, offers an excellent case in point. The project has been controversial since its inception in the 1970s, during the Brazilian dictatorship. Opponents successfully stalled the project due […]

At the beginning of the 1980s, governments controlled the energy sector in all the major Latin American countries. Over the next two decades, however, the combination of low energy prices and a lack of state capital to support exploration and production by national oil companies’ (NOCs) forced energy policy reforms in every country. These took the form of market-oriented policies emphasizing privatization, liberalization and fiscal discipline, known as the Washington Consensus. While the consensus prevailed, hydrocarbon rents went overwhelmingly to private firms, and the promised benefits of economic reforms turned out to be short-lived, if they materialized at all; the […]

CARACAS, Venezuela — Despite an increase in violence and kidnappings in recent weeks, the latest round of peace talks between the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and the Colombian government kicked off on Feb. 18 with a rare display of common ground when both sides wished an ailing Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez a speedy recovery. Their sympathies provide a subtle reminder of the integral role the 58-year-old firebrand has played in the peace process, even if he is now confined to a hospital bed. While Venezuelan governments have been involved in seeking a solution to the Colombian conflict in […]

In late-February, Interpol concluded its first-ever international operation against illegal logging, a three-month operation in Central and South America that resulted in the arrest of almost 200 people and the seizure of some $8 million worth of timber. Duncan Brack, an expert on illegal logging at Chatham House, explained the scope of the problem and efforts to curb it in an email interview. WPR: What is the extent of the problem of illegal logging in terms of problem regions and financial costs? Duncan Brack: Illegal logging and the international trade in illegally logged timber are major problems for many timber-producing […]

Showing 18 - 34 of 38First 1 2 3 Last