Iran Archive

In examining possible approaches to Iran policy in my last several columns, I concluded that “focusing on deterrence in the short run while increasing efforts to promote regime modification — by internal means — over the long haul” might end up being the most effective one. Some of the feedback I received suggested that I was being too pessimistic about current efforts to bring about a new round of punitive sanctions on Iran, and that there were signs that even Russia and China were moving closer to the U.S. position. Those hopes received a serious setback on Thursday, when Russia […]

With the United States currently fighting two wars abroad and facing a health care crisis and an economy on life-support at home, Pentagon officials are hoping to meet a looming threat to America’s future global dominance — not to mention national security — by boosting capacity in elementary school classrooms across the nation. In January, the Pentagon approved a proposal by their risk-taking research agency, DARPA, to invest $45 million into efforts to increase enrollment in computing, science, technology, engineering and mathematics programs (CS-STEM). To do so, DARPA wants to develop extracurricular initiatives to target and engage elementary aged kids, […]

If you want to get an early read on the ultimate success or failure of the Obama administration’s policies for the Middle East, keep an eye on Syria. From the earliest days of the administration, even before it assumed power, its planned strategy for dealing with a number of conflicts in the region has included changing Syria’s behavior. After all, Damascus has not only complicated life for U.S. forces in Iraq, it has also proven over the years to be an important ally of the Iranian regime and a key partner of radical militant organizations in Lebanon and Gaza. Syria […]

On Feb. 16, following decades of disruption, Turkey and Iraq restored a rail link running from the northern Iraqi city of Mosul to Gaziantep in southern Turkey, via Syria. The move is a concrete illustration of Turkey’s increased efforts to develop commercial ties with Iraq, initiatives that Ankara has in turn used to establish a platform upon which it can deepen its diplomatic role and limit destabilizing spillover effects from its volatile neighbor. The strategy has paid off, as demonstrated by the recent visits to Ankara of a host of Iraqi political players — including ‘Ammar al-Hakim, Humam Hammoudi and […]

Director of Harvard’s Negotiation Research Project Robert Mnookin talks about the ramifications of a nuclear Iran. Mnookin says that a nuclear Iran will cause a domino effect with its neighbors, such as Saudi Arabia, wanting to become a part of the nuclear club. The realization of which, he says, would be detrimental to international security.

WorldFocus’ Daljit Dhaliwal interviews Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment about the state of affairs in Iran. Sadjadpour describes the Basij, an arm of the Islamic Revolutionary guard, as “boy scouts” in some rural parts of Iran. However, he says there are some hard-line elements to the organization that are more like “a cross with the Hells Angels and the Taliban.” He says this particular faction of young men is responsible for violently suppressing protesters with the blessing of Tehran.

We Americans tend to have an overly inflated sense of our place in this world. If there is an enemy, we must defeat it. If a global challenge looms, we must lead the way forward. When somebody reaches for a weapon, we must strike before they can use it (against us, naturally). And should we fail to do so, we would be to blame for whatever tragedy might result. That’s not to say that our sense of global responsibility doesn’t have deep and logical roots. Armed with the world’s largest gun after World War II, we set about creating an […]

The IAEA’s latest Iran report is available here (via Arms Control Wonk). As Laura Rozen notes, the good news is that Iran appears to be experiencing significant technical difficulties in its already existing LEU enrichment efforts. But that’s about where the good news ends. Now, part of the difficulty in fully registering the bad news is that a lot of it involves technical details that are more the province of the ACW gang than political analysts. But another complicating factor is the diplomatic language used by the IAEA report itself. For obvious reasons, a technical report cannot categorically define or […]

Pundits and politicians alike have been making a number of predictions of late about Iran’s future trajectory. To the extent that the scenarios they are outlining serve to justify the policy options they propose and endorse, it may be useful to step back and examine the logic that guides them. After all, many of the assumptions that drove our approach to Iraq policy in the run-up to our invasion of that country were based on intellectual quicksand that would not have stood up to closer scrutiny — among them, the idea that a post-Saddam Iraq would recognize Israel and become […]

There were no bright explosions lighting up the horizon, but this week’s coordinated deployment of U.S. diplomats as well as military, intelligence and political leaders — all warning of dire consequences for a defiant Iranian regime — amounted to an Obama-style re-enactment of the Shock and Awe tactics made famous during the opening salvo of the war in Iraq. The tactically synchronized detonations of tough talk were accompanied by a loud blast from Washington, where one administration official openly considered the possibility of regime change in Iran. But it was the Middle East that saw a swarm of high-ranking members […]

At the risk of venturing pretty far down Speculation Boulevard, here’s a quick follow-up to yesterday’s post on the sale of Russian S-300 air defense systems to Iran. I mentioned that the timing of Russia trotting out its long-time political line could be meant to drive up the price of any bargain struck over UNSC sanctions. Today, a spokesman for Russian President Dmitry Medvedev refused to rule out Iran sanctions — again, nothing more than the standard Russian line. But at the same time, a Russian defense industry official stated that Russia and Saudi Arabia are finalizing an array of […]

At some point I’m going to make a list of foreign policy non-story stories (in which “Fatah-Hamas Agreement Imminent” will feature prominently). For now, I’ll just direct your attention to the Russian national security adviser’s declaration that nothing is “restricting” delivery of S-300 air defense systems to Iran. This is nothing more than Russia’s political line, unchanged and often-repeated ever since the contract for the sale was signed. “Unrestricted” in this case means that the S-300 system is not covered by any relevant international arms sales agreements because it is a defensive weapon. This does not suggest that delivery is […]

Around this time last year, nostalgia abounded as Iranians inside and outside of the country recounted their memories of the Iranian revolution three decades prior. The Islamic regime, having rolled out the red carpet to commemorate yet another important milestone, looked as impregnable as ever before, and all eyes were on Washington and the new American president to see how he might impact the next evolutionary phase of the 30-year-old Iranian revolution. The idea that the course of this next phase might be dictated not by external actors, but by elements from within Iran itself seemed far-fetched. What a difference […]

Whenever I ponder some of the challenges U.S. foreign policy faces today in Afghanistan, Somalia, or Yemen, I inevitably return to a passage in Bob Woodward’s “Veil,” describing how Mohammad Hussein Fadlallah, after an attempt to assassinate him had failed, was persuaded to restrain his followers in Lebanon from launching attacks on U.S. interests: The Saudis approached him and asked whether . . . he would act as their early-warning system for terrorist attacks on Saudi and American facilities. They would pay $2 million cash. Fadlallah accepted, but said he wanted the payment in food, medicine and education expenses for […]

When Iran announced this week that it would start enriching its uranium stockpiles to 20 percent — a level much closer to that needed for nuclear weapons production — it closed the first chapter in the history of the Obama administration’s foreign policy. That chapter has ended in failure. Now the administration’s push to get started on Chapter Two is already visible, presumably adopting a more muscular American posture to confront international challenges in Iran and beyond. In his first year, President Barack Obama tried a radically different approach from the confrontational policies practiced by his predecessor, George W. Bush. […]

Over the past 30 years, the poisonous effects of Afghanistan’s narcotics industry have steadily transformed Iran’s law enforcement and border security institutions, forcing drastic changes in the way Iran deals with what has become a burgeoning transnational narco-insurgency on its southeastern frontier with Pakistan and Afghanistan. Iran’s police chief, Brig. Gen. Ismail Ahmadi Moqaddam, announced last October that Iranian authorities are now using remote security surveillance and control systems from Tehran to help monitor and interdict the massive flow of narcotics streaming over the border from Afghanistan. But despite the country’s draconian anti-narcotics laws and aggressive interdiction efforts, Iran remains […]

Iran’s decision to further enrich its LEU to 20 percent clearly adds weight to the case against a purely civil nuclear objective. To recapitulate, not only is Iran now producing nuclear fuel despite not having any reactors to fuel, it is also enriching uranium for a medical reactor despite not having the capacity to transform the higher grade uranium into the fuel rods that reactor requires. In so doing, it crosses yet another threshhold toward achieving at least the “Japan option” of mastering all the component parts of a nuclear weapons capacity, ready for assembly when necessary. At this point, […]