Whether Russia in Ukraine or Iran in the Middle East, authoritarian regimes flexing their military muscles can generate a sense of irresistible momentum that fuels anxiety among more open societies. Yet if one looks at how both these regimes are coping with social change, what initially seems unstoppable begins to look less ominous.
French President Emmanuel Macron has long called for a stronger and more sovereign Europe, in part by pursuing stronger partnerships with the Global South and reform of the international finance architecture. But those plans won’t be enough if major powers refuse to cooperate or negotiate in good faith with Global South countries.
Russia’s role in allowing Azerbaijan to conduct its final invasion on Nagorno-Karabakh last year, despite its peacekeeping role there, has sparked a profound sense of betrayal in Armenia. That in turn has created an opportunity for the EU to forge stronger ties with Yerevan and reshape the geopolitical orientation of the South Caucasus.
France and India have for decades developed a strong partnership grounded in strategic affinities and a shared preference for a multipolar international order. Though the U.S. has tended to be rather suspicious of this relationship, it should reconsider its view, as it actually serves Washington’s broader interests.
Efforts to explain why relations between Russia and the EU collapsed over the past decade have taken a closer look at previously neglected historical factors. But one development that perhaps represented the first step toward the current crisis between Moscow and Europe is overlooked: the Moldova-Transnistria war over 30 years ago.
The war in Gaza and the Houthis’ de facto blockade of the Suez Canal have both imperiled the Mediterranean’s recently regained status as a nodal point of global trade. But at the same time, the European movement toward de-risking trade with China and adopting shorter supply chains provides an opportunity for Mediterranean nations.
The liberal European order has been under attack from within and without in recent years. The EU became a convenient punching bag for opportunistic politicians in many of its member countries, and centrist political parties are being challenged by a populist wave that may not have yet crested. The work to rebuild trans-Atlantic ties with the U.S. under President Joe Biden has begun, even as Russia’s attempts to destabilize the European order have not abated.
The coming year looks to be one of continued headaches and reactive crisis management for Germany’s ruling three-party coalition. A budget crisis, which triggered mass farmers protests, has compounded the country’s existing challenges, testing the durability of the ruling coalition and the political skills of its leaders.
In the final weeks of 2023, three Scandinavian countries signed defense agreements with Washington, further strengthening U.S. military ties with a region of the world that has long favored nonalignment. The deals are proof of just how deeply Russia’s war against Ukraine has transformed the strategic landscape across Europe.