Some of the trends from 2023 that we’ve identified are decidedly pessimistic. Others are less so or even cause for optimism. These trends can seem distant to our local, daily concerns, but they create the conditions and shape the global environment in which our daily lives evolve.
As the ideologies of dominant factions within Toryism converge with far-right thought in the rest of Europe, claims that the U.K. does not face radicalization on the right look absurd. The transformation of the Tory Party looks irreversible, but it remains to be seen what kind of far-right movement it will become.
U.S. government efforts to root out Chinese influence in academia have been clumsy at best, discriminatory and counterproductive at worst. Restrictions and guardrails to protect scientific integrity and national security should be applicable to all, not based on ethnicity or national origin.
The parallels between the current challenges facing the U.S. and EU, particularly when it comes to obstruction from far-right populists, has reinforced a tendency to equate the problems faced by both systems of government. However, the EU is suffering from a chronic but manageable affliction, while the U.S. has an acute condition.
Financing is a critical component in the response to various development goals across the Global South, but it is also urgent to scrutinize how solutions are implemented. In particular, the exclusion of local actors affects the effectiveness of international assistance and can even lead to foreign aid doing more harm than good.
Beijing’s recent diplomatic moves have fueled the growing chorus of voices raising the alarm over China’s alleged desire to use the Israel-Hamas war to fundamentally challenge the U.S. role in the Middle East. However, it would be a mistake to perceive China as anything other than an opportunistic actor in the Middle East.
Some observers have wondered whether the taboo against nuclear weapons is weakening under the pressures of resurgent nuclear brinksmanship and unyielding nuclear postures. But based on what political scientists know about international prohibition norms, there is less need for concern here than it might seem.
Yesterday, Venezuela held a controversial referendum to underscore its longstanding territorial claim to Guyana’s Essequibo region. But despite fears the referendum was an effort to provide popular legitimacy for the government to seize and annex Essequibo, there are plenty of reasons why a military operation to do so is highly unlikely.
After a brief period of high expectations and progress following last year’s presidential election, Somalia continues to face familiar obstacles. President Hassan Sheikh’s government urgently needs to develop long-term policies and set realistic objectives. But consumed by the stalled war against Al-Shabaab, it has struggled to do so.