In the weeks since British Prime Minister David Cameron lost a parliamentary vote that would have authorized the use of force in Syria, commentators have breathlessly debated whether the crisis over the Assad regime’s use of chemical weapons has heralded a significant shift in Western security relationships. Some have been moved to claim that, as a consequence of the vote, Paris is gradually replacing London as Washington’s European security partner of choice. While certainly providing food for thought in both the U.K. and France, such claims are profoundly misleading. Insofar as the United States chooses to work with its European […]

Iran’s new president, Hasan Rouhani, is scheduled to address the U.N. General Assembly Tuesday and plans to use the occasion to reach out to world leaders about restarting talks on Iran’s controversial nuclear program. As U.S. President Barack Obama and his administration consider how they should react to the friendlier diplomatic face put forward by Rouhani and his team, they will need to contend with five popular myths about U.S. policy toward Iran’s nuclear program. 1. It’s Iraq all over again. No. For anti-war activists, simply invoking the Iraq War is an easy way to avoid making a fresh judgment […]

Although welcome, the U.S.-Russia agreement on Syria’s chemical weapons reached this weekend in Geneva will prove difficult to implement. Some of these problems can be reduced with concerted effort and continued focus. But the Syrian crisis should not be seen in a vacuum—it is the latest in a series of chemical weapons crises that includes Iraq and Libya. As a result, the United States and other countries should respond not only by working to implement the U.S.-Russia deal, but also by strengthening broader nonproliferation efforts as well as their own national instruments for combating chemical weapons use and proliferation. The […]

Early in President Barack Obama’s first term, there were suggestions that the United States and China could forge a new partnership to manage global affairs. Some commentators argued that a Sino-American “Group of Two” could run the world better than the G-20. It is said that the Obama administration made some version of this proposal to Beijing but was rebuffed. Last week, it suddenly seemed possible that the Syrian crisis could trigger the creation of an alternative G-2, this time involving Russia. When U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov arrived in Geneva on Thursday […]

The U.S.-Russian negotiations over Syria’s chemical weapons, now underway in Geneva, will determine whether President Barack Obama can walk back his threat to launch punitive strikes against the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. But they will also impact the paradigm for addressing WMD elsewhere, particularly Iran. Depending on the outcome of the talks over Syria, the U.S. could find itself with new options for negotiating a deal to resolve the standoff over Tehran’s nuclear program—or find the door to a peaceful outcome firmly shut. U.S. officials have characterized the Russian plan to secure Syrian chemical weapons as “doable but […]

Whatever happens next in the ongoing drama between the U.S. and Syria over the use of chemical weapons, it would be difficult to conclude that President Barack Obama has performed impressively in his handling of the crisis in Syria. Obama’s response to the slow-motion disintegration of that key Arab state has been marked by a combination of neglect, ambivalence and improvisation. The latest chapter, played out over the past couple of weeks, showed the president at long last responding to what by all appearances was a massive use of chemical weapons by forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. That […]

Until today, last week’s G-20 summit in St. Petersburg, Russia, looked to be a bust. Although the group, whose members represent 90 percent of the world’s economy, is not supposed to have a traditional military security agenda, the impending U.S. military strike against Syria ensured that the Syrian issue would dominate deliberations. Despite efforts by U.S. President Barack Obama to convince the other leaders in attendance of the need to respond to the Syrian government’s Aug. 21 use of chemical weapons with military force, the group remained sharply divided on the issue. China and Russia but also Brazil, India and […]

President Barack Obama apparently failed to change any minds on Syria when the leaders attending the G-20 summit in St. Petersburg, Russia, met for a working dinner Thursday night. Instead, according to Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta, the divisions over Syria “were confirmed” at the dinner. One of the problems facing the Obama team is that there remains widespread skepticism about the veracity of U.S. intelligence claims. Even as lab results from Britain’s Porton Down laboratory seem to confirm that sarin gas was used in the attack on three Damascus suburbs on Aug. 21, Russia, along with some other countries, […]

Among the harshest critics of President Barack Obama’s push for military intervention in Syria are skeptics who question the very foundation of the claim that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad used chemical weapons on Aug. 21, the day intelligence agencies in several countries say Syrian forces carried out a massive nerve gas attack. The critics declare themselves unpersuaded by the evidence made public so far and say it simply does not make sense from a tactical and strategic vantage point for Assad to have used the internationally proscribed weaponry. If chemical agents were used, they argue, it makes more sense for […]

Strategic Horizons: Syria and the Road to American Retrenchment

The extent of history-altering decisions often isn’t evident until after the fact. Who could have guessed, for instance, that George H.W. Bush’s decision to oppose Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990 would lead the United States into a global war with al-Qaida and a second, even costlier conflict in Iraq? On rare occasions, though, the importance of a decision is apparent even before it is made with finality—the big picture clearly lurking behind the closer, more immediate one. Deciding whether to attack Syria’s Assad regime for the large-scale use of chemical weapons against civilians is just such a choice, […]

Over the weekend, President Barack Obama called for a vote on a proposed United States military strike against Syria, with the administration releasing a draft authorization for the use of military force (AUMF) that served as a starting point for congressional discussion this week. Lawmakers are working to amend the broad language of that draft, with new draft language proposed by the Senate that uses narrower language than in the administration’s draft and places some limits on the authorization to use force. Speaking with Trend Lines on Tuesday, John Bellinger III, an expert in national security law, said the president […]

The impending U.S. military strike against Syria due to the Syrian army’s massive use of chemical weapons against innocent civilians underscores the difficulties involved in using military force in such situations. It would be far better and less costly to strengthen the Chemical Weapons Convention and other nonproliferation tools than to apply military power to eliminate rogue states’ existing chemical weapons (CW) materials or try to limit their use. Obama administration officials have cited various reasons for launching a limited attack: to punish the Syrian government for its past CW use; to deter further use; and, in case deterrence fails, […]