The U.S. intelligence community recently completed its first National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on the implications of global climate change for U.S. security. Although the report remains classified, senior intelligence officials have begun presenting its major findings in Congress and at various think tanks. Most media commentary covered the findings of the NIE, but not the more interesting process by which the conclusions were reached. By the admission of the person in charge of the effort — Thomas Fingar, deputy director of National Intelligence for Analysis and Chairman of the national Intelligence Council — the climate change topic presents serious methodological [...]
“If China is winning, the United States must be losing.” That is precisely the principle that many Americans see at work not only in the world, but also in the Middle East. China’s surging manufacturing capacity has contributed to the steep decline in manufacturing jobs in the United States. U.S. businessmen worry about the consequences of Chinese firms taking over U.S. firms such as Unocal and 3Com and scuttle the deals. U.S. bankers agonize over China’s massive current accounts surpluses and its huge dollar holdings. Many perceive China to be a military threat too, expanding its reach in the Pacific [...]
To follow up briefly on Judah’s post on realism vs. idealism in Obama’s policies and character, I just wanted to point out the passage from the Berlin speech that perhaps provides the most cause for worry that an Obama administration might fail to recognize that, as Judah says, now is a moment for restraint in American foreign policy: Will we lift the child in Bangladesh from poverty, shelter the refugee in Chad, and banish the scourge of AIDS in our time? Will we stand for the human rights of the dissident in Burma, the blogger in Iran, or the voter [...]
