The U.S. intelligence community recently completed its first National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on the implications of global climate change for U.S. security. Although the report remains classified, senior intelligence officials have begun presenting its major findings in Congress and at various think tanks. Most media commentary covered the findings of the NIE, but not the more interesting process by which the conclusions were reached. By the admission of the person in charge of the effort -- Thomas Fingar, deputy director of National Intelligence for Analysis and Chairman of the national Intelligence Council -- the climate change topic presents serious methodological challenges for the U.S. intelligence community. Since climate change occurs over decades and centuries, and is governed by little understood non-linear processes and tipping points, analysts seeking to assess its consequences need to adopt a much longer perspective than for most subjects they regularly analyze. Instead of considering whether Iran is seeking nuclear weapons, for example, they need to ponder how the shrinkage of the Caspian Basin might affect Tehran's relations with the other littoral states, which currently disagree over how to delineate the seabed.
U.S. Intelligence Community Grapples with Climate Change
