U.S. Foreign Policy Archive

The U.S. intelligence community recently completed its first National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on the implications of global climate change for U.S. security. Although the report remains classified, senior intelligence officials have begun presenting its major findings in Congress and at various think tanks. Most media commentary covered the findings of the NIE, but not the more interesting process by which the conclusions were reached. By the admission of the person in charge of the effort — Thomas Fingar, deputy director of National Intelligence for Analysis and Chairman of the national Intelligence Council — the climate change topic presents serious methodological […]

“If China is winning, the United States must be losing.” That is precisely the principle that many Americans see at work not only in the world, but also in the Middle East. China’s surging manufacturing capacity has contributed to the steep decline in manufacturing jobs in the United States. U.S. businessmen worry about the consequences of Chinese firms taking over U.S. firms such as Unocal and 3Com and scuttle the deals. U.S. bankers agonize over China’s massive current accounts surpluses and its huge dollar holdings. Many perceive China to be a military threat too, expanding its reach in the Pacific […]

To follow up briefly on Judah’s post on realism vs. idealism in Obama’s policies and character, I just wanted to point out the passage from the Berlin speech that perhaps provides the most cause for worry that an Obama administration might fail to recognize that, as Judah says, now is a moment for restraint in American foreign policy: Will we lift the child in Bangladesh from poverty, shelter the refugee in Chad, and banish the scourge of AIDS in our time? Will we stand for the human rights of the dissident in Burma, the blogger in Iran, or the voter […]

After a brazen Taliban attack killed nine U.S. soldiers in a remote outpost in Afghanistan on July 13, Sens. McCain and Obama seemed to start a competition over who would more rapidly surge U.S. military forces to Afghanistan. Sen. Obama’s trip to Afghanistan and Iraq has further focused attention on the vast disparity in U.S. resources going to the two wars. Americans should welcome the recognition by both presidential contenders that Afghanistan is central to U.S. and international security. But we should remain wary of promises to apply an Iraq-style surge to Afghanistan. Afghanistan is even more complex than Iraq, […]

Today, the Center for a New American Security releases a report, “Strategic Leadership: Framework for a 21st Century National Security Strategy,” that sketches the broad outlines of a recommended U.S. national security strategy for the next president of the United States. The centrist but Democratic-leaning CNAS, founded by two former senior staffers of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, has existed for a little more than a year. But the report grew out of a project known as the Phoenix Initiative, which according to CNAS began three years ago as a collective effort of a number of U.S. foreign […]

On July 15, Indonesian and East Timorese leaders jointly accepted the findings of the Commission of Truth and Friendship, established in 2005, which blamed Indonesian security forces for committing “gross human rights violations” in a failed attempt to prevent the succession of East Timor from Indonesia in 1999. Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, East Timor President Jose Ramos-Horta and East Timor Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao issued a joint statement that expressed “deep regret to all parties and victims, who directly or indirectly suffered physical and psychological wounds” due to the affair, in which hundreds of people died. At a time […]

It isn’t shocking that, all else being equal, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki would prefer to have American troops out of his country. But all else isn’t equal. After Maliki caused a stir last week by calling for a timetable for the withdrawal of American troops, other members of his government immediately began qualifying the statement. The ambivalence is understandable; it reflects the ambivalence of Iraqis in general. Most are deeply suspicious of American motives and want U.S. troops out of their country. At the same time, in towns across Iraq and neighborhoods around Baghdad, U.S. soldiers and Marines are […]

During the past week, representatives of civil liberty groups and the U.S. government have feuded over how many people were on the watch list of individuals suspected of being potential terrorists. The American Civil Liberties Union held a recent news conference to publicize their calculation that the database now includes more than 1 million names, whereas homeland security officials claimed that “only” 400,000 people were included. Caroline Fredrickson, the ACLU’s Washington legislative director, called the growth in the size of the terrorist watch list “unfair to travelers, unfair to law-abiding Americans and unfair to the security screeners who have to […]

WARSAW, Poland — To defend against the potential threat of a nuclear attack from “rogue states,” the United States has been working to shore up support for deploying 10 silo-based long-range interceptors in Poland and a mid-course tracking radar in the Czech Republic by 2013. After months of shuttle diplomacy and intense negotiations, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice inked a deal with the Czechs on July 8 but failed to convince her Polish counterparts to host the project. For months, it appeared that Poland would easily accept U.S. plans. Undoubtedly, Poland is a strong U.S. ally and a vital […]

BAGHDAD — In a recent investigative hearing at the Central Criminal Court of Iraq (CCCI) in Baghdad, a detainee held by the U.S.-led Multi-National Force-Iraq (MNF-I) gave his version of the events leading up to his detention in a village in al-Anbar province, and his subsequent transfer to the Iraqi court for possible prosecution. The detainee, clad in a standard-issue bright yellow jumpsuit, explained that the weapons caches found on and next to his property were part of an elaborate set-up arising out of a feud with a neighboring family. According to the detainee, he was not involved in insurgent […]

When Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Eric S. Edelman visited with top officials in Lebanon May 31, he brought more than just words of encouragement. Timed with his visit, a shipment of body armor, helmets and more than 1.3 million rounds of ammunition was delivered to the Lebanese Armed Forces — the latest installment in an ongoing program of military and economic aid that has made Lebanon, on a per capita basis, the second-highest recipient of U.S. assistance. On the heels of sectarian clashes in May, in which Hezbollah-allied forces largely routed pro-government Sunni fighters, the move is an […]

The daring rescue this week of hostages held by Colombian rebels marks a milestone in Colombia’s transformation, a transformation the Colombian people had already recognized. Now, the rest of the world should acknowledge Colombia’s imperfect, but no less miraculous, turnaround. With the release of Ingrid Betancourt, along with three American contractors and a group of Colombians, some in the United States may pause for a moment to ponder the horrific crime of kidnapping. Growing up in Colombia, we pondered it a lot, picturing not only ourselves in captivity, but also, knowing what a kidnapping does to a family, our relatives. […]

BOGOTÁ, Colombia — The stunning rescue by Colombian soldiers of 15 guerrilla hostages, including three American contractors and a one-time presidential candidate, brings the government closer to victory in its long civil war. This latest success could also pave the way for an unprecedented third term for President Álvaro Uribe, a prospect that worries some analysts. In the meticulously planned operation, the Colombian military infiltrated the communications network of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, and convinced units holding prominent hostages that a guerrilla leader wanted the hostages transported to another region. In a jungle clearing in southern […]

SEOUL, South Korea — The six-party talks on North Korea’s nuclear program are expected to resume this month after a six-month deadlock. But Washington says many questions remain unanswered regarding North Korea’s nuclear weapons program. Last week, North Korea handed over a long-awaited declaration of its nuclear activities dating back to the mid 1980s and also demolished the cooling tower of the disabled Yongbyon nuclear reactor. The disclosure was originally supposed to be submitted by the end of last year. The documentation, which was handed over to the Chinese Foreign Ministry by Pyongyang’s ambassador in Beijing, revealed details of the […]