Diplomacy & Politics Archive

On Sunday, Mexico tuned in to the second and final debate between the four candidates who will compete in the country’s upcoming presidential election, scheduled for July 1. The election’s outcome will determine to a large degree how the country, currently at a crossroads in its battle against organized crime, will reduce violence within its own borders while working with its neighbors to the north and south. “The impact of this election will depend on whether the next president is willing to put enough emphasis on the deep transformation that Mexico needs,” said Maureen Meyer, senior associate for Mexico and […]

With U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on a tour of the South Caucasus last week, hopes that Washington’s top diplomat could use the visit as an opportunity to push for regional peacemaking and democracy support were quickly overcome by events on the ground, underscoring the region’s volatility. Though Clinton’s meetings in Georgia were mostly low key, the brittle cease-fire between arch-nemeses Azerbaijan and Armenia was sorely tested by a series of clashes, fueling fears that another Caucasus war was in the offing. Relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia have been rocky since the two former Soviet republics fought a war […]

After the International Criminal Court sent a team to Libya over the weekend to negotiate the release for four court employees arrested last week, the relationship between the Hague-based court and Libya’s new authorities seems to be as rocky as ever. But even as the court’s chances of securing the trial it wants in Libya appear to be vanishing, the arrests go to show that the ICC still has an important role to play in the transitioning country. The ICC has been involved in Libya’s transition since the U.N. Security Council referred the situation to the court in a prelude […]

This weekend, Spain followed Greece, Portugal and Ireland in seeking shelter under the European Union’s rescue umbrella in order to save its banks. Spain, perhaps prouder than the others, tried to avoid by all means a government bailout, fighting hard for a solution that would rescue its hard-hit banks directly. The problem for Madrid is that after two years of crisis, the EU has learned how to hook countries up to its bailout lifeline, but nobody knows how to move them off of it. The confession of failure might take a harder toll on the Spanish nation than the formal […]

Following the death of four French soldiers in Afghanistan on Saturday, French President François Hollande reaffirmed his decision to withdraw French combat forces from the country by the end of 2012, with the drawdown to begin in July. Hollande had already defended the move at last month’s NATO summit in Chicago, where it met with little public opposition from alliance members. Militarily, the withdrawal of French troops will have little impact on the war effort. The transition of security operations to Afghan security forces in France’s area of responsibility, Kapisa province, had already begun in March, and the roughly the […]

The debate over whether or not to intervene militarily in Syria is hardly a new one. In fact, it is one that resurfaces every time a humanitarian crisis pushes the boundaries of our collective moral conscience. And because we have yet to decisively resolve the question of when to use American military force in such cases, the outcome of each recurring instance of this debate hinges on an ad hoc combination of factors, including the public’s mood, media coverage of the crisis and, at times, elements as haphazard as the vocal support of a celebrity spokesperson. In the case of […]

Following the United States’ restoration of diplomatic relations with Myanmar and the European Union’s relaxation of economic sanctions targeting Naypyidaw earlier this year, international investors have lined up to discuss opportunities for future investment in the resource-rich country, which boasts the world’s 10th-largest natural gas reserves. However, substantial hurdles must be overcome if Myanmar is to join the ranks of Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand and South Korea as the next Asian tiger economy. In an address at the World Economic Forum in Bangkok earlier this month, Myanmarese opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi raised a red flag for potential investors […]

As international negotiators prepare for the next round of talks with Iran over its nuclear program, scheduled in Moscow for June 18-19, the United States faces a 21st century version of a “Stevenson moment.” In 1962, in a forceful presentation backed by compelling photographic evidence at the United Nations, Ambassador Adlai Stevenson made the case that the Soviet Union was installing nuclear weapons in Cuba. In addressing Soviet Ambassador Valentin Zorin in the chamber of the Security Council, Stevenson pointedly declared, “Let me say something to you, Mr. Ambassador. We do have the evidence. We have it, and it is […]

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which concluded its annual summit in Beijing, China, today, announced that it had granted observer status to Afghanistan as part of the group’s effort to play a larger role in the stabilization of the war-torn country after the U.S. military leaves in 2014. The organization, which is made up of six nations — China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan — was founded in 2001 to promote regional economic integration and security cooperation. But the two experts who spoke with Trend Lines said the organization has traditionally been better at ceremony than substance, and closer coordination […]

One of the obvious dangers of a possible war with Iran over its controversial nuclear program is that it could push oil prices sharply higher and, in turn, send the global economy into a tailspin. But a number of developments, some very deliberately set in motion by Iran’s adversaries, have recently converged to erode the effectiveness of Iran’s powerful oil weapon. The sharp edge of Iran’s oil power has been dulled through painstaking tactical moves by Washington and its allies, but the most significant change came not by design, but by misfortune. Ironically, the fear that a conflict with Iran […]

COMBAT OUTPOST SABARI, Afghanistan — “Incoming! Incoming! Incoming!” droned the cold, mechanical voice of the warning system as the combat outpost’s radar detected another Taliban rocket launch. Soldiers ran for cover in the shelters that dot this little American army camp near the Pakistani border. Then three deep booms shook the ground as the rounds hit the hill behind the outpost. The Taliban almost always miss, but they try and try again almost every day, only to disappear afterward among the dusty Afghan hills. With the United States and its NATO allies looking ahead to 2014 as the date when […]

Armenia and Azerbaijan, former Soviet republics in the South Caucasus, have been at war for two decades over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, a separatist ethnic-Armenian province internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan but occupied since 1994 by Armenia. Over the past week, renewed fighting has left eight soldiers dead. The outbreak of violence along the border, which comes as U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visits the region, underscores the difficulty in resolving this not quite frozen conflict. Amanda Paul, a policy analyst and expert on the South Caucasus at the European Policy Center, talked to Trend Lines about […]

In late-May, India, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Turkmenistan initialed a gas sale and purchase agreement (GSPA) for the long-envisioned Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline project. The step is being seen regionally as a marker of seriousness for a project that until a few years ago was categorized as a dark horse when compared to the much-touted Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) pipeline, itself currently on hold due to both Iranian inertia as well as Washington’s firm opposition to the project. For the United States, forward movement on TAPI serves to further isolate Iran from regional integration efforts, while showcasing the potential of its New Silk Road […]

In late-April, according to reporting by the New York Times, the U.S. Congress did something remarkable: It said no to U.S. Special Operations Command. Asked by the command for new authorities to train security forces from Africa to the Middle East, a confused legislative branch, backed by the State Department and the rest of the U.S. military, denied the request. The request itself, though, reveals something of the ambitions harbored by the command. With its confidence boosted by operational successes and the esteem in which it is held, the command is marketing its units as the weapon of choice for […]

Chinese President Hu Jintao and Russian President Vladimir Putin urge the international community to support UN envoy Kofi Annan’s plan on Syria during meetings in Beijing, according to Chinese state media. World News Videos by NewsLook

Stratfor analyst Eugene Chausovsky examines tensions between Lithuania and Poland as Russia tries to prevent the countries from collaborating against Moscow. World News Videos by NewsLook

Hosni Mubarak, the ousted Egyptian president who turned power over to the military in the face of a popular uprising last year, was sentenced to life in prison over the weekend for failing to stop the killing of demonstrators during the protests that ultimately led to his downfall. But while Mubarak and his former interior minister, Habib el-Adly, were convicted of being “accessory to murder,” they and their codefendants were acquitted of more serious charges of having ordered the killings of nearly 1,000 protesters last year. Mubarak and his sons were further acquitted of corruption charges. The verdict brought tens […]