Diplomacy & Politics Archive

The European Union’s solidarity vs. sovereignty game of chicken goes another round this week with the EU Council meeting on June 28, and its key actors are France and Germany. France, and others, are seeking a banking union and ultimately eurobonds; German Chancellor Angela Merkel wants collective oversight on spending beforehand. Who gives in first is the crux of this negotiation, and it boils down to a question of trust. My take on the subject at this stage of the events: Trust Germany — and hope that France does, too. I already explained last week in this column that the […]

In a victory speech, Egyptian Election winner Mohamed Morsi says his government will respect the country’s commitments to human rights. World News Videos by NewsLook

Paraguay’s ousted leader Fernando Lugo accused lawmakers of carrying out a “parliamentary coup d’etat” to force him from power, as international protests mounted over his abrupt removal. World News Videos by NewsLook

Pakistan’s parliament elected Raja Pervez Ashraf prime minister today, after the Supreme Court disqualified and unseated former Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani. The high court justices confirmed Gilani’s April conviction for contempt of court over his refusal to request that Switzerland reopen a corruption investigation against Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari, as the court had ordered him to do in 2009. Shahab Usto, a lawyer and academic based in Karachi, Pakistan, told Trend Lines that the developments are part of a feud between the country’s executive and judiciary branches that will only worsen in the run-up to general elections, which […]

The G-20 summit in Los Cabos, Mexico, proved to be far from a diplomatic triumph for U.S. President Barack Obama. Coming on the heels of previous lackluster international gatherings this year — the Summit of the Americas in Cartagena, the NATO summit in Chicago and the G-8 meeting at Camp David — it raises the question of whether Washington’s ability to lead in the global system has been compromised. Obama has eschewed attending the Rio+20 “Green Summit” in Rio de Janeiro, a wise choice given that the meeting is also not likely to produce any dramatic breakthroughs. Some of the […]

As President Barack Obama’s first term in office draws to a close, attention has naturally turned to assessing his foreign policy record over the past four years. And while partisan debates in the run-up to November’s election are certain to feature more caricature than reasoned argument, even nonpartisan observers diverge when it comes to Obama’s foreign policy legacy to date, as recent articles by George Packer, Conor Friedersdorf and Daniel Larison demonstrate. The challenge is less identifying Obama’s successes and failures than determining the costs of the trade-offs he has made. Broadly speaking, the Obama team’s clearest policy successes have […]

In talks over its suspected nuclear weapons program, Iran has repeated urged the international community to respect its “inalienable right” to peaceful nuclear technology. In an email interview, Leonard Spector, the deputy director of the Monterey Institute of International Studies’ James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, discussed Iran’s rights under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. WPR: What is the legal basis for Iran’s claim to a “right” to nuclear energy technologies and capabilities? Leonard Spector: Iran is relying on Article IV of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which states that nothing in the treaty should be interpreted to affect the inalienable […]

Less than a month after Nepal’s Constituent Assembly was dissolved following its failure to draft a new constitution despite three extensions, the country’s largest and ruling Maoist party split this week. Discord and delay have characterized the country’s ongoing peace process since the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Accord between the government and Maoist rebels in November 2006. They have now led to a political crisis that has disillusioned citizens and made neighboring India and China edgy. The split in the Unified Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist is expected to exacerbate Nepal’s already bumpy transition from a Hindu monarchy to a […]

Qatar announced earlier this month that it plans to contribute $1.5 billion to the new Gulf Development Fund established by the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) in December to aid nonmembers Jordan and Morocco. In an email interview, Steffen Hertog, a lecturer in comparative politics at the London School of Economics, discussed the GCC’s development activities. WPR: What is driving the GCC’s interest in enhancing ties with Jordan and Morocco, and what role will the Gulf Development Fund play in these efforts? Steffen Hertog: The primary motivation seems to be the defense of conservative Arab monarchies in the face of regional […]

The early weeks of the Arab uprisings of 2011 led many to believe that the fast-spreading protest movements were ushering in a new age of nonviolent democratic change in the region. Not surprisingly, the exuberant and initially successful uprisings were optimistically labeled the “Arab Spring.” Events have since unfolded in a much less utopian fashion. The early chapters, as we now know, represented just one phase of what would become a complicated process, full of detours, bloodshed and Machiavellian maneuvers. More recently, the violence in Syria and the blatantly anti-democratic developments in Egypt have highlighted the sharply different ways in […]

World leaders gathering in Rio weighed steps to root out poverty and protect the environment as UN chief Ban Ki-moon warned that “time is not on our side” for fixing a mounting list of problems. World News Videos by NewsLook

Earlier this month, the European Union agreed to create the European Cybercrime Center based at the EU’s joint police body, Europol. In an email interview, Dominik Brodowski, a lecturer in the law faculty at Ludwig Maximilians University Munich, discussed the EU’s efforts to fight cybercrime. WPR: What mechanisms does the European Union already have in place to prevent, detect and prosecute cyber crimes, and what are the shortcomings? Dominik Brodowski: Actually, the union’s 27 member states prevent and prosecute cybercrimes — not the European Union itself. As the EU strives to provide an area of freedom, security and justice, though, […]

The elections in Egypt are over. Their conclusion marks the passing not only of Egypt’s democratic experiment but also of a grand opportunity to confront larger questions regarding Islam and society. As one of the more able chroniclers of the aborted Egyptian revolution puts it, what started with “one hell of a bang” is ending with a whimper. First, the presidential election’s wide-open first round left voters with two candidates, Mohamed Morsi and Ahmed Shafik, who together deflated whatever enthusiasm most Egyptians still had for democracy. Morsi was the second-choice candidate for the Muslim Brotherhood, an organization whose popularity in […]

Editor’s note: This is the second of a two-part series that uses current trends in the Chinese political economy to forecast the outcomes and implications for China under the fifth generation of Communist Party leadership. Part I examined a best-case scenario. Part II examines a worst-case scenario. SHANGHAI — China’s fifth-generation leadership cadre will assume office later this year at a critical and perilous juncture in the country’s socio-economic development. They do so against a backdrop of weak global economic growth and growing geopolitical uncertainty in North Korea, Iran and multiple Central Asian states. Moreover, the U.S. is on a […]

Suicide car bombers attacked three churches in northern Nigeria over the weekend, killing at least 16 people and wounding dozens more. The attacks, for which Boko Haram has claimed responsibility, sparked reprisal killings, while also focusing international attention on the religious tensions in the West African country split between a Muslim-majority north and a Christian-majority south. Zachary Warner, a research analyst in Africana Studies at Bowdoin College, told Trend Lines that it is important to understand these attacks as part of a broader battle for control of the public space, which includes social practices, morality and governance, in northern Nigeria […]

Earlier this month, Leon Panetta became the first U.S. defense secretary to visit Vietnam’s Cam Rahn Bay deepwater port since the end of the Vietnam War. He attended a ceremony at the USNS Richard E. Byrd, a cargo ship operated by a mainly civilian crew under the Navy’s Military Sealift Command, which was undergoing repairs by Vietnamese workers. Speaking on the deck of the ship, Panetta called for more high-level exchanges between the U.S. and Vietnam, as well as enhanced defense cooperation. If Panetta chose to stop in Vietnam for a few days during his nine-day tour of Asia, it […]

Editor’s note: This is the first of a two-part series that uses current trends in the Chinese political economy to forecast the outcomes and implications for China under the fifth generation of Communist Party leadership. Part I examines a best-case scenario. Part II will examine a worst-case scenario. SHANGHAI — As China approaches its once-a-decade senior leadership transition, structural weaknesses in the country’s economic model are becoming more apparent, even as the momentum surrounding progressive reforms appears to be incrementally increasing. A best-case scenario for China under the fifth-generation Communist Party leadership assumes a continuation of both trends, with the […]