Given French President Francois Hollande’s promise to renegotiate German Chancellor Angela Merkel's hard-fought European Union budgetary pact and to counter austerity measures, his May 2012 election made a deterioration in the French-German partnership all but inevitable. Despite his campaign rhetoric, however, Hollande’s first year in office has been marked by conflicting policy messages. more
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is known for being firm toward Pyongyang and demonstrating solidarity with Washington. But a secretive visit to Pyongyang last week by one of his top advisers, widely interpreted as a display of flexibility toward North Korea, is inconsistent with Abe’s past firmness. While Abe is playing smart domestic politics, his efforts may carry unwanted diplomatic consequences. more
Since late-March, when the rebel coalition Seleka took power in the Central African Republic (CAR), security has broken down in the country. U.N. Representative Margaret Vogt recently stated that CAR has entered “a state of anarchy." With Seleka struggling to turn military triumph into durable rule, CAR’s neighbors will likely see an increase in the circulation of refugees, fighters and weapons. more
A group of jihadi militants with links to al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb has infiltrated western Tunisia, with security implications for both Tunisia and Algeria. To combat them, Tunisia’s military needs better equipment, which the government has promised to deliver. But it is not clear whether Tunis will pursue the deeper military and economic reforms needed to quell the terrorist threat in the long term. more
Germany has announced it will provide up to 800 troops to the NATO training contingent that will replace the ISAF mission in Afghanistan after 2014, a notable move in Europe’s current climate of budgetary austerity. With few bilateral interests at play, Berlin’s decision, and similar indications from Italy, raises the question of what the continental European powers’ long-term strategic goals are in Afghanistan. more
Two factors, among others, help explain the government’s decision to charge Boston Marathon bomber Dzhokhar Tsarnaev with the use of a WMD: The charge is seen by prosecutors as relatively easy to prove, and it can be punished by the death penalty. This highlights the irrelevance of a dispute in the U.S. Senate that is holding up important new anti-nuclear and anti-radiological terrorism legislation. more
As the British armed forces rebuild after more than a decade of sustained military operations, the U.S.-U.K. strategic relationship has come under intense scrutiny. While London remains committed to working alongside the U.S., there is deep concern that Washington has become a less than reliable partner. Were it not for the political and economic turmoil in the eurozone, U.S.-U.K. relations might be in crisis. more
China's recent incursion into Indian territory along their disputed border in eastern Kashmir brings to the fore the unpredictability of Chinese foreign policy implementation and Beijing's frequent recourse to low-level aggression. Despite a general trend toward deepening cooperation between China and India, the incident lowers hopes that China's new leadership will clear up uncertainty in bilateral relations. more
Like virtually everyone else, Moscow was surprised by the groundswell of change that began in the Arab world in early 2011. The present “Arab Awakening,” Russian experts opine, may take decades and is likely to transform the region. The Russian leadership has two main worries: U.S. involvement in nominally sovereign countries, and the potential of spillover from the Arab Spring onto the Russian neighborhood. more
A series of violent incidents between opposition protesters and security forces in Conakry have highlighted the challenges still impeding Guinea’s political transition since the death in 2008 of longtime leader Lansana Conte. Despite progress toward stability, Guinea lacks a functioning legislature, is beset by ethnic tension and is stifled by corruption, leaving the outcome of the transition uncertain. more
The Obama administration’s pivot away from the Middle East and toward Asia is based on the belief that the U.S. has underinvested in the Asia-Pacific, where the bulk of its future opportunities and challenges lie. As America rebalances, a defense white paper from its most reliable ally in the region, Australia, should be closely read in Washington. Its message is that if the U.S. is rebalancing, so is Australia. more
