The unexpected victory of centrist candidate Hasan Rowhani in Iran’s presidential election signals a significant shift in Iranian politics. It is expected that Rowhani’s victory will help improve Iran’s political environment and restore some limited civil and political rights. But Rowhani’s first order of business is likely to be Iran’s economy, which has deteriorated sharply since the middle of last year. more
On June 3, the U.S. State Department announced its “first reward offers for terrorists in West Africa.” The men named are undoubtedly dangerous—but are they international threats? Groups like al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb, the Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa and Boko Haram merit serious attention, but real questions remain concerning the capacities, ranges and limitations of such groups. more
The Nuclear Suppliers Group remains bitterly divided over the issue of India’s membership, with a U.S.-led bloc supporting India's candidature and a China-led bloc vehemently opposing its entry. The stand-off has frustrated India's deep-seated desire to become an equal of the major nuclear powers. But it also has implications for the future of the NSG and the nuclear nonproliferation regime more broadly. more
Ethiopia’s construction of the Grand Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile River is creating serious tension among Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia. Egypt fears that the dam’s large storage will put control of Nile water in the hands of upstream Ethiopia, and has tried unsuccessfully to deter Ethiopia from completing the project. Meanwhile, Sudan has sided with Ethiopia, heightening uncertainty in Cairo. more
When Iran’s June 14 presidential election appeared to be becoming a struggle among reformists, nationalists and so-called principlists, who support the supreme leader’s overriding authority, fundamentalist ayatollahs stepped in to aid their principlist allies. With calls for change, including from the Shiite clergy, gathering steam, the supreme leader seeks to “immunize” the government against having to reform. more
French President Francois Hollande’s three-day visit to Tokyo, where he met with Japanese Prime Minister Abe, resulted in major agreements on nuclear cooperation and military hardware. The summit, which also covered a range of other topics, reflected the noticeable improvement in recent years of the two countries’ already solid bilateral ties and marked the increasing overlap of French and Japanese interests. more
Few have taken notice of Brazil’s increasing use of surveillance drones, which it has been dispatching in an effort to control illegal immigration, contraband and smuggling. So far, Brazil’s drone initiative has not generated much political controversy. Nevertheless, President Dilma Rousseff’s administration must tread lightly lest it offend bordering nations that carefully guard their sovereignty. more
As U.S. President Barack Obama and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, begin a three-day informal summit, commentators are hoping that a personal rapport between the two leaders might have significant effects on broader bilateral relations. But a major strategic shift is dependent on the two sides overcoming persistent disagreements and managing domestic pressures that limit the scope for a bold new departure. more
The bullish mood concerning Africa’s economic progress and potential is largely justified, but one of the most serious barriers limiting the scope for transformational growth is that African markets are not sufficiently open. Regional integration has the potential to unlock markets, provide economies of scale, increase competition and attract foreign direct investment, as the East African Community demonstrates. more
Since 2005, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has sought to revive Persian nationalism, contrasting it with the clerical elite’s claim to Islam as the basis of Iranian identity. Significantly, Ahmadinejad’s rhetoric was accompanied by concerted outreach to Afghanistan and Tajikistan, the geolinguistic remnants of Greater Persia. Despite the historical echoes, the effort is driven by strategic interests. more
Last week, German Chancellor Angela Merkel openly disagreed with the European Commission’s plans to impose punitive tariffs against Chinese-made solar panels. The commission has accused China of unfair trade practices that undercut European producers. But Merkel’s concerns for German exports took precedence over EU solidarity, highlighting the difficulties Brussels has faced in forging a unified China policy. more
