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It may be some years before your AI-powered assistant can sit at your kitchen table, finishing off a haiku while debating the nuances of Shakespeare’s “The Tempest,” as imagined by Ian McEwan in his 2019 novel, “Machines Like Me.” Even if that always remains the stuff of fiction, AI, short for artificial intelligence, has already crept into daily life. It is now helping heart surgeons spot minor problems that go undetected in routine scans. It is similarly more accurate than human experts at interpreting mammograms to detect early stage breast cancer. And it is starting to solve the complexities of […]

The global response to the COVID-19 pandemic has generated an unprecedented level of spending, with more than $21 trillion committed to fighting the coronavirus so far, much of it falling under emergency measures that bypass bureaucratic hurdles and expedite the flow of funds. The speed and scale of this spending has created new opportunities for state-level corruption—ranging from fairly mundane examples, like demanding bribes for medical services, to more systemic forms of financial malfeasance, shady procurement practices and opaque spending. The pandemic has also drawn attention to the ways in which pervasive graft exacerbates inequality in development outcomes, within and […]

As a European Union and NATO member that borders Turkey, hugs the Black Sea coast and maintains cordial relations with Russia, Bulgaria is a strategically significant country. Yet in recent years, it has rarely made international news—except for the occasional domestic clash over Russian influence and periodic mass protests over corruption and state capture. The latest such uprising may have finally forced the departure from high-level politics of Boyko Borissov, who has served three nonconsecutive terms as prime minister since 2009 and was a mainstay of the Bulgarian political scene before that. His center-right populist Citizens for the European Development […]

The coronavirus pandemic has highlighted humanity’s growing vulnerability to emerging infectious diseases and underscored the need to reduce our collective exposure to these pathogens. Not surprisingly, then, the past year has seen a torrent of reports on pandemic preparedness, including one I co-authored for the Council on Foreign Relations. Most of these focus on controlling outbreaks after they start, rather than averting them in the first place. Moving from reaction to prevention requires identifying and mitigating the main drivers of new infectious diseases. These drivers are almost entirely anthropogenic and are the same forces responsible for precipitous declines in global […]

Editor’s Note: This is the web version of our subscriber-only weekly newsletter, Middle East Memo, which takes a look at what’s happening, what’s being said and what’s on the horizon in the Middle East. Subscribe to receive it by email every Monday. If you’re already a subscriber, adjust your newsletter settings to receive it. In 2014, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, at the time Turkey’s prime minister, condemned Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi as a “tyrant.” Last week, Erdogan, now president, sent a high-level diplomatic delegation to Cairo for discussions of bilateral relations and regional affairs, the first such official talks since […]

For more than a week, crowds of Colombians have taken to the streets to vent their anger at the government. It began on April 28, with a general strike organized in response to a controversial tax reform proposal that has since been withdrawn by President Ivan Duque’s government. But the harrowing repression of the demonstrations by Colombian security forces has added fuel to the fire, and the protests have evolved into a general show of discontent with Duque’s unpopular right-wing government. The scenes playing out across Colombia today mirror the social protest movement that erupted in 2019, amid similar uprisings […]

Editor’s Note: Every Friday, Andrew Green curates the top news and analysis from and about the African continent. Subscribers can adjust their newsletter settings to receive Africa Watch by email every week. Three weeks after President Idriss Deby was killed in battle in late April, the transitional military council that seized control of Chad in the wake of his death moved to solidify its hold on power this week, naming a new government filled with holdovers from Deby’s regime. The move by the council, which is headed by the former president’s son, Mahamat Idriss Deby, threatens to fuel tensions in […]

At the eighth congress of the Communist Party of Cuba last month, Raul Castro stepped down as head of the party, passing the reins to President Miguel Diaz-Canel in a choreographed transition of power. This changing of the guard took place amid rising dissent on the island, as well as a severe economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and strict U.S. sanctions that were imposed by the Trump administration. Despite expectations he would return to a policy of engagement, President Joe Biden has so far chosen to keep Trump’s aggressive policies toward Cuba largely in place. This week on […]

Around the world, states locked in conflict with jihadists are trying to devise policies to reintegrate disillusioned militants into society. In Nigeria, a program targeting defectors from the violent extremist group Boko Haram offers a window into the promise and pitfalls of such efforts. For the past 12 years, Nigeria has struggled to quash a violent insurgency waged by Boko Haram in its northeast. Although a 2015 military offensive put the jihadists onto the back foot, the federal government recognized that it would not be able to defeat the insurgency solely through force. It therefore decided to explore nonmilitary ways […]

For better or worse, the United States military is leaving Afghanistan. Proponents for withdrawal argue the U.S. has done all it can militarily in the country, has more pressing security interests elsewhere and may do more harm than good by staying. Critics say the power vacuum the U.S. is leaving behind will reignite a civil war and open the door to ethnic cleansing, gender apartheid and state failure. Both views have merit, but the choice is not between these options alone. Yes, the U.S. record of nation-building in Afghanistan is poor. And yes, power vacuums and state fragility breed insurgencies, […]

If we ever need evidence of how corruption and incompetence can roll out the red carpet for authoritarianism, the people of El Salvador and its president, Nayib Bukele, are offering a real-time case study. Bukele is steadily tightening his grip on all the levers of power, and the vast majority of Salvadorans are cheering him on. The latest leap toward potential tyranny occurred this weekend, when Bukele brought to heel the last of the three branches of government that remained outside his control. His move to replace the members of the Supreme Court raised cries of alarm from the international […]

Even with its physical “caliphate” in Iraq and Syria in tatters, the Islamic State is still managing to wage a global insurgency, maintaining an operational presence in at least 20 separate countries. The organization’s global diffusion recently led a group of leading terrorism experts to describe ISIS as an “adhocracy,” better understood as a group of “structurally fluid organizations in which ‘interacting project teams’ work towards a shared purpose and/or identity.” By maintaining this structure, the group’s leaders seek to harness the benefits of a transnational network spanning multiple regions and continents. “All politics is local,” as the famous saying […]

During his campaign for the presidency last year, Joe Biden pledged to reverse what he called “the failed Trump policies” toward Cuba. But now, Biden’s White House is signaling that it is in no hurry to lift the severe sanctions and other measures imposed on Cuba by former President Donald Trump, much less return to the historic detente with Cuba that was pioneered by Biden’s old boss, former President Barack Obama. As the Biden administration bides its time, Cuba’s aging leaders have passed the baton to a new generation. At the Communist Party’s eighth congress last month, Raul Castro stepped […]

Editor’s Note: This is the web version of our subscriber-only weekly newsletter, China Note, which includes a look at the week’s top stories and best reads from and about China. Subscribe to receive it by email every Wednesday. If you’re already a subscriber, adjust your newsletter settings to receive it directly to your email inbox. China’s population declined, according to its latest census. Or did it? It depends on who you believe. The Financial Times first reported last week that China’s population is set to decline for the first time in five decades, falling below 1.4 billion. The article cited […]

It all started in late April with an open letter written by a group of 20 retired French generals and published in a right-wing weekly news magazine, Valeurs Actuelles, known for its inflammatory provocations. Describing France as teetering on the edge of civil war, the letter called on France’s civilian leadership to take action so the military wouldn’t have to. With its reference to the threats posed by “Islamism and the hordes from the banlieues”—France’s peri-urban ghettos—and a form of anti-racism that “despises our country, its traditions, its culture,” the letter was more foghorn than dog whistle when it comes […]

South Koreans often refer to their country with a famous proverb: “In a fight between whales, the shrimp’s back gets broken.” But rather than a shrimp, Seoul is betting that it can become a dolphin, giving it more agency and maneuverability as competition heats up between the United States and China. Getting it right would allow the country to balance its security alliance with the United States along with its economic dependence on China. Getting it wrong would see South Korea alienated in the region, distrusted by both Washington and Beijing. This balance will prove difficult, but South Korean leaders […]

“The general view at the Atlantic Council is to send them back to the Cato Institute where they came from.” The quote, from an anonymous but “prominent” staffer at the Atlantic Council, purported to sum up the reaction at the establishment Washington think tank to the recent arrival of two analysts from Cato, an iconoclastic libertarian shop that often finds itself at the margins of U.S. foreign policy debates. It followed a high-profile controversy—by the standards of Washington’s think tank circles, in any case—in which members of the Atlantic Council publicly disavowed the work of one of those analysts and […]