So far all I’ve seen in the English-language press is a denial by a NATO official that it was discussed. But according to Nicolas Gros-Verheyde at the Bruxelles 2 blog,a Greek military office cited by the Bulgarian press claims that theU.S. is considering basing part of its anti-missile system in Bulgaria.That’s a long way for a rumor to travel, but Bulgaria has expressed interest in the idea before.
Afghanistan + more U.S. troops – a plan = Conventional Wisdom Bad idea.
The IAEA issued its latest Iran report yesterday. Here’s the report itself (.pdf) from the ISIS site, here’s Elaine Sciolino’s write-up for the IHT. The short version is that little has changed in the way of Iranian compliance since the last report. So, declared materials are still accounted for, the nuclear fuel at Bushehr is still under IAEA seal, and Iran’s declared facilities have not been altered or engaged in suspect activity. But it has continued its enrichment program, gaining substantially in the efficiency of its centrifuge cascades and expanding their operation, and has done almost nothing to increase transparency […]
Fareed Zakaria on the realism of the two presidential candidates: Rhetoric about transcendent threats and mortal dangers grips the American imagination. But it also twists U.S. foreign policy in ways that can prove to be extremely costly to the country and the world. I think that both candidates are realists dressed up in idealist rhetoric. Zakaria argues that the world more closely resembles Barack Obama’s vision of it than John McCain’s. But I would reformulate that as, The world’s challenges will be more responsive to Barack Obama’s remedies than to John McCain’s. It’s easy to caricature McCain’s vision of Russia […]
It seems like Afghanistan specialist Kip is the latest anonymous, third-person analyst to sign off over at Abu Muqawama. But before leaving he dropped two posts, one questioning the actual numbers behind the recent announcement of troop increases there, and another supporting the widening of operations to the Pakistani side of the frontier: Kip thinks the apparent decision to overtly undertake commando operations in Pakistan is a positive step. There is simply no way to win in Afghanistan without going after sanctuaries in Pakistan. I agree with the second sentence, if not with the first, even if Kip goes on […]
Jeffrey Lewis of Arms Control Wonk on the NSG’s India waivers here and here. Apparently no side deals were cut to get some of the last holdouts in Vienna on board for the waiver, although informal assurances were given that no one had any plans to transfer sensitive dual use enrichment technology to India. Essentially, the deal was approved despite the fact, or perhaps because of the fact, that neither the NSG holdouts nor India received any formal guarantees that their red lines wouldn’t be crossed. I’ve got mixed feelings about the deal in general, since I find both the […]
The Arabic Media Shack blog has launched a five-part series on the social, political and historical context of Al Qaeda. Parts One and Two are already up and they’re worth a read. The short version is that regardless of its relative operational strength today as opposed to seven years ago, Al Qaeda is at its very origins an essentially weak movement, issued from a longer historical current that had largely spent itself by the time its last lingering fanatics switched tactics to target the U.S. directly. Tactically dangerous by the nature of the terrorist threat, yes, but not a longterm […]
A couple thoughts about Gov. Sarah Palin’s remarks about “war with Russia,” as they’re being reported: GIBSON: Would you favor putting Georgia and Ukraine in NATO? PALIN: Ukraine, definitely, yes. Yes, and Georgia. . . GIBSON: And under the NATO treaty, wouldn’t we then have to go to war if Russia went into Georgia? PALIN: Perhaps so. I mean, that is the agreement when you are a NATO ally, is if another country is attacked, you’re going to be expected to be called upon and help. Greg Sargent makes the salient point at the same link as above: It’s worth […]
Nikolas Gvosdev makes a good point. Dealing with Pakistan’s military hasn’t necessarily been straightforward these past seven years. They’ve got their own agenda, and haven’t been afraid to pursue policies — both overt (ie. negotiated peace deals with Pakistani-based Taliban) and covert (ie. support for Afghan-based Taliban) — that are at odds with American interests. But at least they couldn’t use claims of democratic legitimacy as cover. Now with the return of civilian rule in Islamabad, we’ve got to consider the possibility that not only are we not going to get what we want from the Pakistanis, but that they […]
In as quiet and unassuming a way as possible, I’d simply like to acknowledge the significance of today’s date, even if seven years later its meaning still escapes me. More than anything, my thoughts are drawn to the acts of courage, bravery and heroism, great and small, and the outpouring of solidarity, individual and collective, that followed the attacks. I’ve found in my own life that the pain of loss grows less sharp with time, while the memory of gestures of love and humanity that have always followed it grows more pronounced. I hope this is the case for 9/11, […]
I’ll be appearing as a guest on Sirius Radio’s Blog Bunker program this evening at 5pm EST. I did the show from their NY studio last May and had a blast. Tonight, I’ll be doing it by telephone from Paris. If you’re not already a Sirius subscriber, you can catch the show by registering for a free 3-day trial period here. (Don’t tell ’em I told you.)
As Judah points out, the problem of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border region is beginning to get some attention. There are two basic ways to fight the Pakistani Taliban who are using that country’s border region (Baluchistan, and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas mostly, as I understand it) as a safe haven from which to undermine the Afghan government and attack U.S. troops. One is to launch raids from Afghanistan using special operations forces, drones and other air assets, which U.S. forces appear to be doing more and more of. The other is to put troops on the ground in Pakistan. Putting […]
The question of what to do in Afghanistan (and alongside it, Pakistan), is beginning to get the attention it deserves. So far, the default answer is converging on sending more troops, with little real thought as to where they’ll come from and the resulting problems that will cause. Some will apparently be cycled in from a drawdown in Iraq. But the Iraq drawdown, as formulated so far, is going to come at a snail’s pace, with the possibility of it being halted or reversed as conditions on the ground dictate. Barack Obama fleetingly addressed the issue in his Berlin speech […]
To follow up a little bit on my post from Tuesday, it’s already obvious that “the Surge” has become a sort of political shorthand that means different things for different people. I was using it as shorthand for the political message it sent to the various Iraqi factions, namely that American forces would have to factored into the cost-benefit analysis of armed conflict so long as President Bush was in office. The problem of assigning causality, of course, is that the decision to increase troop strength in Baghdad didn’t happen in a vacuum, but rather in the aftermath of the […]
Via today’s WPR Media Roundup, the WaPo reports on a U.S. intelligence forecast of future global risks being prepared for the next president. Not a whole lot you couldn’t get from the recent crop of books on the post-American world (although I’d point out that “reduced dominance” is still dominance). But there’s also this: In the new intelligence forecast, it is not just the United States that loses clout. Fingar predicts plummeting influence for the United Nations, the World Bank and a host of other international organizations that have helped maintain political and economic stability since World War II. It […]
Defense Industry Daily’s got a short piece addressing the Army’s recently released 2008 Modernization Strategy. It’s worth a glance in light of the recent back and forth between the McCain and Obama campaigns over “Future Combat Systems” vs. “future combat systems.” Both candidates seem to be cautious regarding the former, but contrary to McCain’s claims, Obama is not necessarily opposed to the latter. In fact, neither candidate has offered much substance on the matter. Army doctrine has undergone a COIN revolution, but procurement still seems to be based on its pre-COIN foundations. that’s to be expected given all of the […]
One country has already applied an arms embargo on Georgia before the Russians even presented their draft resolution to the UN Security Council. Nicaragua? Nope. Israel. Here’s Haaretz: The officials say the blanket directive was decided upon this week because Israel is concerned about damage to its relations with Russia. For the same reason, Israel decided to stop most weapons sales to Georgia even before the Russia-Georgia war last month. One of Israel’s primary concerns is that Russia could sell Iran advanced weapons, including anti-aircraft missiles. Israel had previously supplied drones and urban warfare training to the Georgian military. (That […]