President Barack Obama’s July 2011 deadline for a drawdown of U.S. troops from Afghanistan has raised concerns among Central Asian analysts, who worry that links between the Taliban, al-Qaida and Islamist militants in Central Asia could result in a negative spillover effect following the U.S. withdrawal. As if to highlight their fears, the al-Qaida-linked Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) claimed responsibility for a Sept. 19 attack on a military convoy in Tajikistan, which left 25 military personnel dead. And according to Baktybek Abdrisaev, former Kyrgyz ambassador to the United States and Canada and currently a visiting professor at Utah Valley […]

Obama, Afghanistan and Domestic Politics

The excerpts from Bob Woodward’s book, Obama’s Wars, have raised the question of whether President Barack Obama inappropriately let domestic political concerns determine or guide his military strategy in Afghanistan. I wanted to comment on that yesterday, but didn’t have time to. In the meantime, Stephen Biddle got there first, and covered some of the ground I had in mind. Biddle argues that in a democracy, popular support is necessary for waging war, so considering whether a strategy will enjoy that support is perfectly legitimate. Biddle frames the argument by reminding us that strategy is “the art of the possible,” […]

Global Insider: India-Russia Defense Ties

Russia and India recently agreed to jointly manufacture a military transport plane. In an e-mail interview, Seema Desai, a London-based analyst in Eurasia Group’s Asia practice, discusses India-Russia defense relations. WPR: Historically, what kind of defense relationship have India and Russia shared? Seema Desai: India and Russia have traditionally shared a very strong defense relationship, with past purchases including fighter aircraft, missiles, submarines, and aircraft carriers, in addition to other equipment such as radars and tanks. Although India still buys the bulk of its military hardware from Russia (around 60 percent), Russia is a less-dominant player than it has been […]

The Realist Prism: Obama’s Wars, at Home and Abroad

When Bob Woodward’s book, “Obama’s Wars,” is released on Monday, the denizens of Washington’s Beltway will eagerly skip to the index to see whether they are mentioned — and if not, who is. But as they digest the stories of infighting, rivalry and catty comments among the president’s national security team, excerpts of which have already begun to circulate, the larger question is whether the revelations in the latest Woodward tome will have an impact on the Obama administration’s Afghan policy. Woodward seems to confirm what many have suspected ever since President Barack Obama’s speech at West Point announcing the […]

The idyllic valley of Kashmir has been gripped by violence for more than three months now. Unlike past unrest, however, this summer’s riots have seen a new generation of young Kashmiris venting their anger at a central government that has failed to capitalize on the stability of recent years to provide them with economic opportunities and political reconciliation. The state government led by the telegenic, much-hyped Omar Abdullah waited almost two months after the initial violence to begin outreach efforts, by which time more than 50 people had already died in street protests and police action. New Delhi, too, stayed […]

India-Oman Pipeline: Redrawing the Connective Map

This proposed India-Oman deepwater natural gas pipeline represents a potential major shift in the connectivity networks linking Central Asia to South Asia. Once laid, pipelines help determine geopolitical realities for decades, as a glance at the legacy impact of Soviet-Russian pipelines on Central Asian politics reveals. If the Gulf serves as an effective workaround to bypass the Afghanistan-Pakistan transit route, it would dramatically reduce the strategic logic of stabilizing the Af-Pak region. The fact that Iran is involved in this deal as a source country is also a major plus, as it applies additional commercial constraints on Tehran to keep […]

The results of the Sept. 18 elections to the Wolesi Jirga, Afghanistan’s lower house of parliament, will not be known for weeks, but from the point of view of the international community, in many ways the process is more important than the outcome. The strategy adopted by the Obama administration, NATO, and the other key international players in Afghanistan depends for success on establishing Afghan political, economic, and military institutions that are strong and legitimate. Without an effective Afghan partner able to reduce the threat from the Taliban insurgents to manageable levels, the coalition’s counterinsurgency strategy will never succeed. But […]

Negotiating a Ceasefire to the Afghanistan Study Group War

Thought a political settlement to the insurgency in Afghanistan was going to be hard to come by? Should be a cakewalk compared to negotiating a ceasefire to the firefight that’s been going on this week between the authors of the Afghanistan Study Group report and its critics. But since I hate to see people I like and whose work I admire engaged in such a bitter argument, I’ll give it a try. The initial withering assault by Joshua Foust can be found here, as well as more constructive criticism from Michael Cohen here, and Andrew Exum here. This follow-up post […]

VAVUNIYA, Sri Lanka — Sri Lanka’s tourism authorities would like the world to think of their country as an idyllic retreat, or as the writer Anton Chekhov described it during his 1890 visit, a “Paradise on Earth — an exotic fairy tale setting.” That’s why the ever-present military checkpoints and machine-gun-toting soldiers that dot the capital never make it into the television commercials urging Europeans to visit this beautiful Indian Ocean island. The advertisements also steer clear of the island’s northern region and this town, Vavuniya. It is the gateway to the area formerly controlled by the separatist Liberation Tigers […]

Global Insider: The Developing 8

Leaders from Egypt, Iran, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, and Turkey attended a Developing 8 summit in Abuja, Nigeria in July. In an e-mail interview, Gareth Jenkins, Istanbul-based analyst and author of “Political Islam in Turkey: Running West, Heading East?“, explains the background and current state of the D-8. WPR: What is the historic background and focus of the Developing 8, and how is it evolving? Gareth Jenkins: The Developing 8 (D-8) was founded on June 15, 1997, in Istanbul. It was the brainchild of Necmettin Erbakan, modern Turkey’s first Islamist prime minister, who wanted to create a Muslim alternative […]

Earlier this summer, as U.S. Army helicopters began evacuating stranded people from Pakistan’s flood-ravaged northwest, one Pakistani newspaper chose to focus on a more sinister dimension of American military activity in the country. According to sources cited in an article in the Pakistani daily, the Nation, Washington is constructing a “huge base” in Islamabad to “control” South Asia. American soldiers and “personnel of Blackwater” will soon arrive, with a Guantanamo Bay-style detention camp to follow. The article noted that the base lies near Pakistani nuclear sites, offering “all kinds of opportunities” for Washington. While many Pakistanis reject such talk, many […]

Indian Defense Minister A.K. Anthony visited South Korea last week at the invitation of his South Korean counterpart to boost defense cooperation between the two states. His visit came just two months after the Indian external affairs minister visited Seoul and at a time of great turbulence in the strategic environment of the Asia-Pacific region. After having long ignored each other, India and South Korea are now beginning to recognize the importance of tighter ties. The resulting courtship was highlighted by South Korean President Lee Myung-Bak’s state visit to New Delhi in January, when he was the chief guest at […]

Strategic encirclement is a term that haunts Indian analysts quite a bit these days. So when noted Subcontinent watcher Selig S. Harrison reported in late August that 7,000-11,000 Chinese troops had poured into the northern part of Pakistani-administered Kashmir known as the Gilgit-Baltistan region, the feeling that India was being systematically “surrounded” by Beijing was loudly echoed in the Indian media. The revelations follow a recent controversy triggered by China’s refusal to issue a visa to an Indian general on the grounds that his area of responsibility falls in the disputed Kashmir region; Beijing will only issue “stapled visas” to […]

Over the weekend, the Washington Post published a report that noted strong divisions between British and American military advisers over how best to prosecute the coalition’s counterinsurgency campaign in the northern part of Afghanistan’s Helmand province. The dispute highlights continuing disagreements on Afghan War strategy even among the closest NATO allies. Helmand province is the heartland of the Taliban insurgency (.pdf) in southern Afghanistan. Bordering Pakistan, where the Taliban has its base of operations, it has a population of over 1.4 million extremely poor Pashtuns, most of whom live in small towns and villages along the Helmand River. The economy […]

COLOMBO, Sri Lanka — On a steamy afternoon in the Sri Lankan capital, if you glance across the water at Colombo’s legendary Galle Face Green seaside promenade, past the spray of the Indian Ocean, you can make out a milky line of giant cargo ships at the point where the sky blends with the sea. That ocean traffic on the horizon, those dashes of gray steel, glide along the world’s busiest sea lane, navigated by anywhere from 100 to 200 ships every day. This is the maritime pipeline that makes it possible for China to remain the world’s fastest-growing economy. […]

Obama Speaks on Ending Combat Mission in Iraq

President Barack Obama announces the end of the combat mission in Iraq, discusses the future of the United States’ commitment in the country, and further discusses U.S. engagement and ways forward in Afghanistan.

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