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It’s common knowledge that the possibility of a second term for former U.S. President Donald Trump is sending shivers up the spines of Washington’s NATO allies. But the prospect of a second Trump presidency is also heightening anxieties among U.S. allies in Asia, which have also relied on U.S. security assurances for decades.

Then-U.S. President Donald Trump.

How durable are alliances? And how believable are alliance commitments? Stated differently, if the U.S. under Donald Trump or another president ends up being an unreliable ally when push comes to shove, would it be consistent with what we should have expected all along? It turns out these are surprisingly difficult questions to answer.

Then-U.S. President Donald Trump and French President Emmanuel Macron.

Former U.S. President Donald Trump said he told a NATO ally while in office that he would “encourage” Russia to “do whatever the hell they want,” setting off a flurry of rebukes among NATO supporters and increasing anxieties in Europe about Trump’s potential return to the White House.

Local moto-taxi drivers transport migrants near the Darien Gap.

There is no silver bullet for solving the humanitarian challenge on display in the Darien Gap, which thousands of migrants pass through daily. But any solution must involve creating sustainable economic opportunities for residents of border towns, so they are not drawn into the lucrative business of human smuggling.

U.S. President Joe Biden at a G-20 summit.

Amid the debates over U.S. President Joe Biden’s foreign policy, one thing is clear: Biden is an internationalist trying to keep the U.S. engaged globally actor. But should he be? More broadly, is it the United States’ place to be highly engaged in the world? Would the U.S. and the world be better off if Washington sat some things out?

People under an awning in Mexico City.

Over the past two decades, China became an increasingly powerful player in Latin America, displacing the U.S. as a top trading partner and strengthening its political influence in the region. But now, China’s growth has suddenly slowed, creating significant economic risks for Latin America—and opportunities for the United States.

U.S. President Joe Biden speaks at the Democracy Summit.

Is U.S. President Joe Biden too focused on defending democracy, as some observers have claimed recently? One can argue that the Biden administration is too maximalist in its aims, even to the point of trying to do too much. But is it truly due to a hyper-focus on the defense of democracy, both at home and abroad?

Mexican presidential candidate Claudia Sheinbaum.

One of the most important elections of the year, especially for the United States, will be in Mexico, where the next president will have to navigate not only the country’s internal problems, but also manage ties with Washington and deal with the increasingly negative attention the country receives north of the border.