Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the leader of Poland's ruling Law and Justice

Poland’s parliamentary elections on Oct. 15 could cement the ruling PiS party’s hold on power—or usher in its demise. Once again, the election centers on the rivalry between PiS and the centrist Civic Platform party that has dominated Polish politics since the mid-2000s. Warsaw’s partners and allies will be watching closely.

Polish opposition leader Donald Tusk speaks during a campaign rally.

With less than two weeks before Poland holds elections, odds favor the ruling Law and Justice party winning an unprecedented third term. In a jaw-dropping irony, however, the party, which often appeals to anti-immigrant sentiment, is now embroiled in a scandal over selling visas to migrants from Asia and Africa.