For the past year, Yemen has been in a state of limbo, its messy, regionalized conflict on hold but unresolved. And that’s unlikely to change—for the better, at least—soon. Even if Saudi Arabia and the Houthis agree to a formal cease-fire, the country will remain stuck in the liminal space of “no war, no peace” for some time to come.
While the world remains transfixed by the Israel-Hamas war, other trends that could prove as consequential for the future of the Middle East are gaining momentum. In particular, an increasingly visible transformation of identity discourses in the Gulf and Iran is setting the scene for further shocks to the regional order.
Iran’s long-range ballistic missiles long have been the focus of international attention. Over the past two decades, though, Iran has also developed and deployed an increasingly diverse array of shorter-range strike systems. Now, the war between Israel and Hamas has raised the urgency of understanding these other strike capabilities.
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s recent visit to China signaled the diplomatic revival he has long hoped for. But Assad walked away from the trip empty-handed when it comes to financial commitments toward reconstruction of Syria’s still-devastated infrastructure. Worse still for Assad, China isn’t alone in its reticence toward Syria.
The Israel-Hamas war has the potential to fuel further conflict across the Middle East, with a high risk in particular of the fighting spreading to include Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. By contrast, there is a worrying lack of attention in European and U.S. political and media discussions to the impact of the war in Gaza on Egypt.
Year after year, observers have been warning that the status quo in Gaza could not last, and yet year after year it stubbornly did. It was a testament to how sustainable an unsustainable situation can be—until the moment when it no longer is. The unprecedented attack this weekend marked that moment in Israel’s standoff with Hamas.
The effusive rhetoric on display in recent high-level meetings between Russian and Chinese officials masks a significant vulnerability in their strategic partnership: Although both sides champion the creation of a multipolar world order, their actual cooperation on the ground lags far behind, particularly in the Middle East and Africa.
Critics of the proposed U.S. role in a Saudi-Israeli normalization deal have focused on Riyadh’s human rights record. But the real problem with the deal is that it would do little to advance U.S. interests. The stated goal of normalization is admirable. But it’s simply not worth the price the U.S. appears willing to pay.