Supporters of Argentine President-elect Javier Milei.

It is tempting to view the win in Argentina by far-right libertarian economist Javier Milei followed by the first-place finish in the Netherlands by the anti-Muslim firebrand Geert Wilders as evidence of a global movement. But it would be a mistake to view these two earthquakes as part of the same tectonic pattern.

Geert Wilders, leader of the Dutch far-right Party for Freedom.

The far-right PVV party’s victory in the Netherlands’ elections has fueled frantic speculation about what the outcome means for European democracy. Less attention has been paid to the broader trends enabling a party as radical as the PVV to get to a position where 24 percent of Dutch voters might give it the benefit of the doubt.

Portuguese Prime Minister Antonio Costa.

Three weeks ago, Portuguese Prime Minister Antonio Costa submitted his resignation amid a corruption scandal, ushering in what is probably the biggest crisis in Portuguese politics in at least 20 years. The snap elections called for March promise to be the most contested and important ballot in that same period.

Then-interim Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez speaks in Madrid.

Pedro Sanchez was elected Spain’s prime minister last week in a parliamentary investiture that represents a validation of his high-risk gamble to call early elections that he was widely expected to lose. But the win comes after weeks of massive protests that reflect why this is his most controversial victory to date.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

EU officials have been careful to avoid framing Global Gateway, an infrastructure development initiative, as a response to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, but comparisons between the two frameworks are inevitable. It is no surprise, then, that the narratives the EU uses to discuss the Global Gateway contest those surrounding the BRI.

PiS party leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski and Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki

Since the ruling PiS party lost Poland’s Oct. 15 elections, a ferocious debate has raged within the party about whether to work with a new opposition-led government or do everything possible to sabotage it. How this debate within PiS is resolved could influence how other right-wing parties in Europe respond to electoral defeat.