Libyan forces affiliated with government in Tripoli during combat against Islamic State militants, Sirte, Libya, Sept. 22, 2016 (AP photo by Manu Brabo).

With the self-proclaimed Islamic State besieged in Mosul and on the defensive in parts of Syria, the future of the group’s network beyond its core territory has been thrown into question. At its peak in 2014 and early 2015, the Islamic State established affiliates across the Middle East and North Africa that it labeled “provinces,” or wilayat, rapidly increasing its operational reach and influence. But with its senior leadership now facing considerable pressure in both Iraq and Syria, it is unclear whether the Islamic State will be able to maintain communications and organizational ties with these affiliates abroad. Moreover, as […]

The coffin of former Iranian President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani is surrounded by mourners during his funeral, Tehran, Iran, Jan. 10, 2017 (AP photo by Ebrahim Noroozi).

In this week’s Trend Lines podcast, WPR’s editor-in-chief, Judah Grunstein, and senior editor, Frederick Deknatel, discuss the potential dangers and opportunities of U.S. President Donald Trump’s foreign policy agenda. For the Report, Mohsen Milani talks about former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani’s lasting influence on Iranian politics. Listen: Download: MP3Subscribe: iTunes | RSS Relevant Articles on WPR: The Dawn of the Trump Era The Trump Era Series How Will Countries Respond to China’s Shift From Global Exporter to Investor? Taking Stock of the U.S. Rebalance and the Contest for Influence in Asia Mexico Faces a Crucial Year as Trump and Domestic […]

Front pages of Iranian newspapers announce the death of former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, Iran, Jan. 9, 2017 (AP photo by Vahid Salemi).

Revolutions, by their intrinsic idealism, generate ideological extremism and destructive policies. Like the lava of an active volcano that indiscriminately burns everything in its path, revolutionary extremism devours what stands in its way. The 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran was no exception. It brought to power idealistic and self-righteous revolutionaries with the mission to establish an Islamic order in Iran and beyond. Opponents of this agenda, many of whom operated outside of the new system, have been brutally suppressed. Individuals within the governing elite have attempted, with varying degrees of success, to soften this revolutionary extremism and gradually reform the […]

A refinery of the state-owned oil company Petrotrin in Pointe-a-Pierre, Trinidad and Tobago, Sept. 5, 2005 (AP photo by Shirley Bahadur).

Resource booms and busts are a sad reality for most commodity-based developing countries, and Trinidad and Tobago is no exception. While by far the wealthiest of the Caribbean economies, thanks to its oil and gas resources, the country is currently mired in a severe recession after the collapse of world oil prices beginning in 2014. The economy contracted by 1 percent that year, followed by further declines of 2.1 percent in 2015 and 2.8 percent in 2016, according to data from the International Monetary Fund. Oil and gas, which make up about 40 percent of gross domestic product and 80 […]

Jordanian security forces on patrol in Karak, where 10 people were killed by Islamic State gunmen, Dec. 19, 2016 (AP photo Ben Curtis).

Last month’s terrorist attack in Jordan, which the self-declared Islamic State quickly claimed responsibility for, was a brutal reminder of the kingdom’s fragile security situation. Gunmen attacked a police station in the southern city of Karak and then stormed a Crusader castle popular with tourists. They killed nine Jordanians in the firefight, including seven security officers, and a Canadian tourist. In the days after the attack, three Jordanian gendarmes and a police officer were killed in security raids in Karak, where authorities discovered a huge cache of weapons and explosives that apparently belonged to the gunmen. “Judging by the quantity […]

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro holds up a sword of Venezuelan hero Simon Bolivar during a rally, Caracas, Venezuela, Dec. 17, 2016 (AP photo by Fernando Llano).

Venezuela’s roiling crisis just became far more complicated for the country’s political opposition and exponentially more unsettling for the United States. On Jan. 4, President Nicolas Maduro reshuffled his Cabinet and named a new vice president, Tareck El Aissami, a man who has reportedly helped forge back-channel links for Caracas to terrorists and drug traffickers. Until now, Washington has mostly treated Venezuela’s dramatic social and economic disintegration as a matter to be watched from afar: troubling, to be sure, but without very significant repercussions beyond its own borders or neighborhood. But the appointment of El Aissami means that the next […]

Somali soldiers at the scene of a suicide car bomb attack, which al-Shabab quickly claimed responsibility for, Mogadishu, Somalia, Jan, 2, 2017 (AP photo by Farah Abdi Warsameh).

The so-called Islamic State received some modest good news recently from Somalia, in what has otherwise been a dismal stretch of losses for the jihadi group. In October, a small militant faction aligned with the Islamic State took and held Qandala, a port town in northern Somalia, for more than a month before withdrawing. It was the first time a group linked to the Islamic State has occupied a town in Somalia. Talk of the Islamic State dominated much of the debate on counterterrorism issues during the U.S. presidential campaign. Yet as concerning as the Islamic State’s Qandala operation is, […]

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan during an award ceremony in Ankara, Dec. 29, 2016 (Presidential Press Service photo by Yasin Bulbul).

The fall of rebel-held eastern Aleppo in Syria last month was a stunning personal blow for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, whose government had openly backed Syrian rebel groups after the civil war began in 2011. Losing the rebels’ self-styled “capital of the revolution” to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his allies is an insurmountable setback for years of Turkish regime-change efforts in Syria. But there is a silver lining for Turkey. After Aleppo, Ankara can focus all its diplomatic, military and political efforts on pursuing its more immediate national security interests in northern Syria: fighting the so-called Islamic State […]