Diplomacy & Politics Archive

Just as the United States thought it had made progress convincing Turkey to help fight the so-called Islamic State (IS)—particularly in the current battle for Kobani, the Kurdish town near Turkey’s border with Syria—Ankara came out with a rather disconcerting announcement. Turkish warplanes, officials said, had launched bombing raids, but they had struck Kurdish guerrillas in Turkey, not IS. The bombing raids against Kurdish rebels in southeastern Turkey did not directly change the balance in Kobani, but their timing was a particularly brazen defiance of international pressure. The U.S.-led effort to “degrade and destroy” IS has put a harsh spotlight […]

For the past decade, Panama’s economy has been roaring. With GDP growth averaging 8.24 percent from 2003 to 2013, Panama’s economy looked more like that of the so-called East Asian Tigers than many of its neighbors, particularly to the north, and the comparison to Asia does not end there. As the government moves to widen the Panama Canal to accommodate wider shiploads and makes massive investments in infrastructure, including ports and the first-ever subway in the capital city, Panamanian authorities have proclaimed that they want to be the Singapore of the Western Hemisphere—the region’s main logistical hub. While in terms […]

“The New Egypt” wants New York City to know that it is open for business. Coinciding with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi’s arrival in New York last month for the U.N. General Assembly meeting, billboards appeared on the sides of buses, the roofs of buildings and a huge Nasdaq video screen in Times Square, promoting Egypt’s “Peace, Prosperity and Growth,” over a Pyramid-centered mash-up of Pharaonic temples and the Suez Canal. An Egyptian businessman whom el-Sissi had in tow reportedly paid for the campaign. Weeks later, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry was in Cairo for a Gaza donors’ conference, […]

The elusive unicorns wandering the forests of America’s Middle East policy are the so-called moderates who will battle the extremists on behalf of the Western world. There is a touching faith among many parts of the U.S. foreign policy establishment in the existence of these moderates, who simply require sustained U.S. support in order to step forward out of the shadows of the stagnant status quo regimes and extremist movements that dominate the region. These moderates, according to this rosy view, can already field a disciplined and effective fighting force. But better yet, they can also be trained quickly and […]

Over 10 million people will cast their votes in today’s presidential and parliamentary elections in Mozambique. The outcome could prove vital for a country seeking political stability to encourage more foreign investment and the social and economic benefits it could bring. Although political conditions have improved recently, there have been episodes of violence throughout the campaign among supporters of the three leading parties: the ruling Liberation Front of Mozambique (FRELIMO), Mozambican National Resistance (RENAMO) and the Democratic Movement of Mozambique (MDM). FRELIMO, which holds over two-thirds of parliament seats, will field a new presidential candidate, Filipe Nyusi. Currently the minister […]

On Oct. 8, after a year of intense effort, the Japanese and U.S. governments released an interim progress report on planned revisions to the guidelines framing their militaries’ respective roles in the joint defense of Japan. The report does not identify specific threats or discuss detailed scenarios for joint military operations, but it does provide a series of principles guiding the revisions and lists some types of cooperative activities they will cover. These principles and examples make clear that the two countries plan to expand the range of possible operations both geographically and functionally. The two governments’ foreign and defense […]

After a hiatus following the 2008 financial crisis and the upheavals of the Arab Spring, multibillion-dollar “mega-projects” are once again being built at breakneck speed in the oil- and gas-rich kingdoms of the Persian Gulf. At first glance, their resumption signifies that the Gulf states have successfully weathered the Middle East’s political and economic storms in recent years. Moreover, successful bids for global events such as the 2020 World Expo in Dubai and the 2022 World Cup in Qatar will ensure a continuing focus on major infrastructural developments through at least the end of the decade. But there’s another story […]

On Sept. 27, street demonstrations in Kinshasa, the capital of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) drew significant if not overwhelmingly large crowds. The target of the protesters’ ire was President Joseph Kabila, whose loyalists had spent a busy summer testing public opinion on a controversial issue: amending or even replacing the country’s constitution to remove presidential term limits. The subject is of more than academic interest to Kabila, who is fast approaching the end of his final term in office, having assumed the presidency upon the death of his father in 2001 before winning elections in 2006 and 2011. […]

Across Africa and the Middle East, governments and international organizations are paying the price for responding to crises too late. Last week, the continuing spread of Ebola in West Africa vied for global attention with new advances and atrocities in Syria and Iraq by the so-called Islamic State (IS). These were arguably both avoidable disasters. A more determined international medical effort to contain Ebola when it appeared in Liberia and Sierra Leone at the start of this year would almost certainly have stemmed the epidemic. Earlier Western and Arab military action against IS, perhaps paired with a nasty but necessary […]

Last weekend, Latvia’s ruling coalition maintained its majority in parliamentary elections that were held against the backdrop of continued harassment from Russia. Latvia and its two Baltic neighbors, Estonia and Lithuania—all former Soviet republics and current members of NATO and the European Union—have watched Russia’s intervention in Ukraine with escalating concern. While NATO’s Article 5 obligates the entire alliance to come to the defense of the Baltics in the event of a Russian attack, Russian President Vladimir Putin has been testing the limits of that commitment. In recent months, Russia has captured an Estonian intelligence officer in a cross-border raid, […]

Editor’s Note: This is the second of a two-part briefing on Bolivia’s presidential election. Part I looked at domestic issues contributing to President Evo Morales’ success. Part II examines the regional significance of the Morales model of governance. When Bolivian President Evo Morales first won election in 2005, he quickly became one of the harshest critics of U.S. hemispheric policy. His brand of anti-American rhetoric fit in naturally with that of then-Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, so it was not surprising that under Morales, Bolivia became a member of the Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas (ALBA), the coalition of leftist governments […]

In September, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif met with his Saudi counterpart, Saud al-Faisal, in New York in the latest attempt under Iranian President Hassan Rouhani to reduce the prevailing hostilities between Tehran and Riyadh. So far it appears the Saudi leadership has responded positively, creating a strong possibility of Iranian-Saudi relations entering a new phase, with a significant reduction of hostilities. There are even some indications that the improved relations could lead to a grand bargain between the two longtime regional rivals, with significant implications for the entire Middle East. Decades of rocky relations followed by heightened tensions […]

The story out of San Pedro Limon keeps changing. First, Mexican soldiers had killed 22 gang members in a late June shootout in a warehouse in the rural town some 95 miles southwest of Mexico City, according to the army’s official account. Then the Associated Press sent reporters to San Pedro Limon, where they found evidence not of a shootout but a massacre. A witness said that all but one of the gang members had actually surrendered before they were executed. Months passed before an official government investigation in mid-September, after which the Mexican Defense Department arrested an army officer […]

Over the next decade, the United States may play a smaller role in the management of global security, hold steady on its current course or even try returning to the halcyon days of unipolarity. But as Sun Tzu, the great philosopher of war, wrote, a military commander who tries to be strong everywhere ends up being strong nowhere. That also applies to grand strategy. So whatever course American strategy takes, the U.S. must have regional partners. While everyone recognizes that the U.S. must lean heavily on others, it can be easy to forget that strategic partnerships come in several varieties. […]

Editor’s Note: This is the first of a two-part briefing on Bolivia’s presidential election. Part I looks at domestic issues contributing to President Evo Morales’ success. Part II will examine the regional significance of the Morales model of governance. Unlike elections in neighboring Brazil and Uruguay, Bolivia’s presidential race is notably lacking in drama and suspense in the run-up to voting on Oct. 12. Despite some constitutional questions surrounding his candidacy and criticisms over how much power he has amassed, President Evo Morales appears headed for a landslide victory that would make him not only Bolivia’s longest-serving president, but the […]

Iran has a habit of surprising the West, and there is reason to expect important new surprises are on the way. In the not too distant future, a major change will take place at the top of Iran’s power hierarchy, and it will unfold mostly outside the view of Western analysts. Since there is no way of knowing exactly who will become the Islamic Republic’s third supreme leader, the West would do well to avoid excessively self-assured pronouncements on the matter. The most startling and embarrassing of all surprises for Washington came more than three decades ago. In 1977, the […]

Last month, Brazil and Angola signed a Technical Memorandum of Understanding for the Brazilian navy to support the development of Angola’s naval capabilities. Angola will purchase seven Brazilian Macae patrol ships, four of them built in Brazil with Angolan personnel support, and three others in Angola. Brazil will also train Angolan military personnel and build a shipyard in Angola. The agreement is another sign of Brazil and Angola’s strategic partnership, following their 2010 Defense Cooperation Agreement and more recent pacts on naval and aeronautic cooperation. But it also fits into Angola’s broader strategy to secure its maritime borders to safeguard […]