The Syrian civil war continues because those who could stop it believe that time is on their side and things will eventually turn in their favor, or else that ending the fighting is not worth the costs. Sadly the conflict is not yet ripe for resolution, and the innocent pay the price. It is impossible to predict the outcome of the war with certainty, but it is possible to sketch feasible scenarios. more
At their White House summit last week, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and U.S. President Barack Obama jointly called for greater international efforts to end the Syrian civil war, though the two leaders reportedly differ on how directly the West should become involved. Meanwhile, the preoccupation with Syria has obscured unresolved sources of tension between the two countries on other issues. more
The visit by President Thein Sein of Myanmar to the White House on Monday underlines how far the Southeast Asian country has come. But while the progress in Myanmar is real, the country’s leaders have so far delivered more political than economic reforms. more
Chinese strategists likely see the prospect of a U.S. intervention in Syria as very beneficial to China. This might seem counterintuitive, given that Beijing has blocked efforts in the U.N. to authorize action in Syria. But while China is not interested in legitimizing U.S. involvement, Beijing would quickly seize the opportunity to take advantage should the U.S. decide to entangle itself in Syria. more
The controversy over whether the Obama administration lied about the September 2012 attack on the U.S. diplomatic compound in Benghazi, Libya, will consume Washington for some time, ultimately influencing the way the U.S. military responds to crises. But while the emotion associated with the inability to stop the attack is understandable, it may push the military to take excessive risks in future crises. more
The victory by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in Pakistan’s national elections offers the U.S. an opportunity to develop and execute a strategy for improving the troubled relationship with Islamabad. Although the Obama administration has defined detailed goals for what it would like to achieve in Afghanistan, as well as strategies for attaining them, U.S. officials have yet to do the same for Pakistan.
Does the U.S. genuinely want Europe to police its geopolitical backyard? When it comes to the Syrian crisis, the answer seems to be no. The peace conference announced last week was a setback for Britain and France’s more hawkish approach and reflects a paradox: While the U.S. has frequently called for Europe to take responsibility for its own security, Washington is often nervous about the results. more
John Kerry undertook his maiden voyage to Moscow as U.S. secretary of state this week, and the initial prognosis is that his visit was a success. There was a perceptible thaw in what, over the past year, has been described as a much more contentious relationship. Kerry continued the process of leaving behind bilateral baggage that had accumulated during the the first term of the Obama administration. more
The United States and Russia have announced a diplomatic initiative that would bring together representatives from the Syrian regime and opposition forces to negotiate a framework to end the Syrian conflict. more
With the U.S. out of Iraq and getting out of Afghanistan, interest in insurgency is ebbing. Still, unlike the 1990s, it has not gone away entirely. This continued interest is a good thing, but, unfortunately, official thinking reflects old-style insurgency more than emerging forms. The failure to adapt U.S. thinking to changing patterns of insurgency leaves the country poorly equipped for the next conflict. more
As the immediate sense of crisis fades on the Korean Peninsula, the longer-term cycle of provocation and response remains in place. North Korea's nuclear weapons and missile capabilities continue to grow, and South Korea is feeling the pressure to respond by building its own capabilities. Meanwhile, there are signs that China's resolve to back the North may be wavering. And while the U.S. response to North Korea seems to have worked in the short run, Washington needs to stay prepared for all contingencies. more
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry is heading to Moscow this week as part of a renewed campaign to make Russia rethink its support for the Syrian regime. Kerry is reportedly optimistic that he can make some progress. But this new push is reminiscent of earlier, unsuccessful efforts. And the mere fact that the U.S. continues to court Moscow over Syria represents a considerable diplomatic victory for the Russians. more
There has been a lot of talk in recent days about “red lines” and the strength of American resolve. Much of it has revolved around the possibility that chemical weapons may have been used in the Syrian civil war as well as allegations that China has not fulfilled commitments it made to resolve the Chen Guangchen affair. But red lines are most effective when there is already a pre-existing commitment to act. more
Africa has never been central to America's global security strategy. From Washington's vantage, the continent has always been less important than other regions. The official approach has normally been one of relative indifference with a bit of aid when things got really bad. In the past year, though, several factors have increased the attention being paid to Africa by American policymakers and military leaders. more
In his recommendations for the U.S. to become more actively involved in the Syrian civil war, Sen. Bob Corker has fallen victim to one of the more seductive temptations that regularly befall American policymakers: that with enough aggressive leadership and a healthy application of technological acumen, Washington can get other actors to align themselves with and then execute U.S. policy objectives. more
The U.S. is different from most states throughout history. With no major enemies nearby, America's wars have been fought around the world against a wide range of opponents. This meant that U.S. policymakers and military leaders needed to anticipate the location and identity of their enemies. Being wrong had strategic costs. Unfortunately, the U.S. isn't particularly good at predicting its future conflicts. more
The U.S. response to the steady drumbeat of threats issuing from North Korea in recent weeks was unambiguous and well-calibrated to this particular crisis, but its implications go far beyond the Korean Peninsula. The strategic subtext was that the U.S. is and intends to remain a Pacific power. The crisis on the Korean Peninsula can be seen as the first test of the U.S. pivot to Asia, and the U.S. passed. more
Even without the tragic bombings at the Boston Marathon this week, it is unlikely that the visit of U.S. National Security Adviser Tom Donilon to Moscow would have been front-page news. But his meetings -- including contact with Russian President Vladimir Putin, to whom Donilon handed a letter from President Barack Obama -- could end up being quite significant, as they seemed to avoid the expected pitfalls. more
In December, if only briefly, there appeared to be prospects for a brighter future for Venezuela-U.S. ties. Hugo Chavez’s vice president and anointed successor, Nicolas Maduro, announced that Caracas would engage in a dialogue with Washington to possibly improve bilateral relations. Five months later, as Venezuela’s presidential election heats up, U.S.-Venezuela ties have not become a serious topic for debate. more
The Arab-Israeli conflict has never lost its power to conjure visions of Nobel Peace prizes among world diplomats, even as it has repeatedly thwarted their efforts. Despite the occasional success, well-intentioned plans have also backfired disastrously, triggering new violence. As the Obama administration launches a new push for peace between Israelis and Palestinians, the watchword must be, “First, do no harm.” more
Under North Korea's former dictator Kim Jong Il, crises followed a well-choreographed pattern. However much this game frustrated the United States, Washington was fairly confident that it would not escalate into accidental war. Kim knew how far to push and when to back off. Unfortunately, the young Kim Jong Un is now attempting to emulate his father but in a much clumsier and more dangerous way. more
