Richard Gowan

Does the U.S. genuinely want Europe to police its geopolitical backyard? When it comes to the Syrian crisis, the answer seems to be no. The peace conference announced last week was a setback for Britain and France’s more hawkish approach and reflects a paradox: While the U.S. has frequently called for Europe to take responsibility for its own security, Washington is often nervous about the results. more

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry is heading to Moscow this week as part of a renewed campaign to make Russia rethink its support for the Syrian regime. Kerry is reportedly optimistic that he can make some progress. But this new push is reminiscent of earlier, unsuccessful efforts. And the mere fact that the U.S. continues to court Moscow over Syria represents a considerable diplomatic victory for the Russians. more

Doubts remain over whether the Syrian military used chemical weapons against rebels, as alleged last week. Even if the evidence proves to be totally accurate, many in Washington will continue to campaign against any military intervention. Yet this episode has introduced a new element of uncertainty over the U.S. response to the Syria crisis, which could in turn create a fleeting opportunity for diplomacy. more

The U.N. may soon be launching a new wave of peace operations, beginning with a mission in Mali in July. Yet the U.N. still has a huge amount of unfinished business to complete in countries where peacekeepers are already deployed. As U.N. officials look for the resources for these new missions, they will face pressure to downsize existing ones, even if that means leaving some fragile states’ problems unresolved. more

Five Indian soldiers serving with the U.N. peacekeeping operation in South Sudan were killed in an ambush last week. Such casualties are grimly familiar for the Indian army, which has lost more personnel on U.N. missions than any other country’s military. But the attack capped off a difficult few weeks for India at the U.N. that, cumulatively, may reinforce doubts about New Delhi’s commitment to the U.N. system. more

Discussions about U.N. peacekeeping often get bogged down in technical details, rather than tackling big strategic questions. This is true of the U.N. Security Council’s decision to mandate an “intervention brigade” in the DRC. A lot of talk has focused on the council’s unusually aggressive language, with less on the brigade’s role in the complex political struggle for access to the DRC’s natural resources. more

The battle to succeed Ban Ki-moon as U.N. secretary-general in 2017 could turn nasty, pitting Western-backed candidates against alternatives favored by Russia. The next U.N. leader is likely to be a European, and there seems to be a general consensus that an Eastern European will finally win the post in 2017. Yet this only highlights that this anachronistic “region” lacks a clear political identity. more

Since the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) was launched in March 1978, its history has been punctuated by crises. The mission was heavily reinforced in August 2006 after the inconclusive war between Israel and Hezbollah, and it still totals roughly 11,000 blue helmets. But UNIFIL is currently facing potentially more-serious crises as the civil war in Syria threatens to destabilize Lebanon. more

Last week, European leaders, led by German Chancellor Angela Merkel, resisted efforts by the U.K. and France to end the EU ban on arming Syrian rebels fighting President Bashar al-Assad. The move sent a signal about the limits of London and Paris’ ability to define the bloc’s approach to major crises, especially if Germany is prepared to block their initiatives more consistently than in the recent past. more

Does China have any real interest in cooperating on international crisis management with the West? Chinese officials at the United Nations have sided with Russia over Syria and refused to countenance a new sanctions resolution against Iran. These issues have overshadowed those cases in which China has pursued cooperation, including efforts to stop a war between Sudan and South Sudan. more

Two years ago, Brazil, Germany, India and Japan gambled on a drive to win permanent seats on the United Nations Security Council, despite the failure of several similar initiatives over the past decade. This time, too, they were unable to secure a U.N. General Assembly resolution endorsing their hopes. The long-term consequences of the so-called G4’s most recent defeat could prove corrosive for the U.N. more

It might seem premature to consider Ban Ki-moon’s legacy as U.N. secretary-general, given that he has nearly four years to go in his second term. Yet, a U.N. secretary-general’s schedule is consumed by a mix of urgent crises and hollow diplomatic rituals. If Ban wants to focus on a small number of strategic priorities, he needs to seize them now and stick to them despite the distractions that lie ahead. more

European soldiers, often mocked by American analysts in recent years, are back in fashion. France’s intervention in Mali has even inspired some commentators to wonder whether Europe has caught the “interventionist bug.” Though there are some obvious problems with this sort of commentary, the question remains: Why have some EU states embarked on new wars in a period of financial uncertainty and defense cuts? more

Governments and analysts have found countless metrics to evaluate military interventions such as those in Kosovo, Afghanistan and Iraq, judging them on everything from casualty rates to the provision of public services. But what metrics can be used to evaluate a deliberate nonintervention? This question is grimly relevant to assessments of the West’s decision not to take military action in Syria to date. more

The wars in Mali and Syria have followed very different trajectories over the past month. While Syria has become symbolic of international inaction, France’s use of force in Mali surprised many. The crises also have very different geopolitical implications. Mali may be in the headlines today, but the stakes are still higher in Syria. Despite these differences, three factors link the two conflicts. more

France has been at war in Mali for 10 days, and though you might not know it from the media coverage, France is winning. Still, French officials seem unwilling to press home their military advantage unilaterally. Three factors in particular will shape French decisions moving forward: the weakness of Mali's army, the level of support from European allies and the willingness of African countries to finish the job. more

Last week, U.N. officials briefed the Security Council on plans to deploy surveillance drones to back up its peacekeeping mission in the eastern DRC, in the hopes of improving the operation’s ability to track, and possibly pre-empt, hostile militia movements. The proposal is part of a broader modernization drive by the DPKO, one that risks offending some of the states that currently deploy peacekeepers. more

Diplomacy is back in fashion in Washington. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has restored much of the confidence the State Department lost in the Bush era. Her successor, Sen. John Kerry, is likely to continue the healing process. But history may be about to play a trick on the Obama administration. The diplomatic renaissance in the U.S. seems to be coinciding with a decline in diplomacy among other powers. more

Over the past year, the Syrian conflict has become a defining test of Russia’s claim to be a major power. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has steadfastly defended the Syrian regime against Western pressure, using adroit diplomatic tactics to disrupt repeated Western efforts to resolve the crisis. Despite Lavrov’s skillful maneuvering, he now faces the prospect of a decisive diplomatic defeat. more

Does Lakhdar Brahimi have any good options for ending the Syrian war? Unlike his predecessor, Kofi Annan, who tried to mediate a resolution to the conflict under constant media scrutiny, Brahimi has adopted a low profile. But like Annan, he has struggled to bring the regime and rebels together. Brahimi needs to have a range of Plan Bs on hand if the situation starts to spiral out of control quickly. more