Nikolas Gvosdev

In his speech yesterday at the National Defense University, President Barack Obama offered a comprehensive vision of how he plans to wind down the global war on terrorism. The speech suggested that the U.S. would no longer have a "one size fits all" approach to terrorist organizations. If borne out, this shift could result in a more nimble, agile footing in the fight against terrorist groups that target the U.S. more

Chinese strategists likely see the prospect of a U.S. intervention in Syria as very beneficial to China. This might seem counterintuitive, given that Beijing has blocked efforts in the U.N. to authorize action in Syria. But while China is not interested in legitimizing U.S. involvement, Beijing would quickly seize the opportunity to take advantage should the U.S. decide to entangle itself in Syria. more

John Kerry undertook his maiden voyage to Moscow as U.S. secretary of state this week, and the initial prognosis is that his visit was a success. There was a perceptible thaw in what, over the past year, has been described as a much more contentious relationship. Kerry continued the process of leaving behind bilateral baggage that had accumulated during the the first term of the Obama administration. more

There has been a lot of talk in recent days about “red lines” and the strength of American resolve. Much of it has revolved around the possibility that chemical weapons may have been used in the Syrian civil war as well as allegations that China has not fulfilled commitments it made to resolve the Chen Guangchen affair. But red lines are most effective when there is already a pre-existing commitment to act. more

In his recommendations for the U.S. to become more actively involved in the Syrian civil war, Sen. Bob Corker has fallen victim to one of the more seductive temptations that regularly befall American policymakers: that with enough aggressive leadership and a healthy application of technological acumen, Washington can get other actors to align themselves with and then execute U.S. policy objectives. more

Even without the tragic bombings at the Boston Marathon this week, it is unlikely that the visit of U.S. National Security Adviser Tom Donilon to Moscow would have been front-page news. But his meetings -- including contact with Russian President Vladimir Putin, to whom Donilon handed a letter from President Barack Obama -- could end up being quite significant, as they seemed to avoid the expected pitfalls. more

The announcement this week that the Nusra Front, one of the main armed groups battling to take down the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, has formally announced its allegiance to al-Qaida could signal a major shift in Syria's two-year-long civil war. It certainly complicates matters for the United States, particularly its efforts to forge a pro-Western provisional government to take over from Assad. more

Experts are debating what precisely are the motives behind North Korea's recent spike in belligerent rhetoric and posturing. What is more certain, however, is the set of assumptions guiding Pyongyang's strategic calculus. Whether the North Korean leadership’s assessments are accurate or not -- and what steps the other powers in the region take to correct them -- may help determine how this crisis will end. more

While American policymakers often say that "all options are on the table" when it comes to dealing with Iran and its nuclear program, the president publicly took one option off the table during his recent visit to Israel: containment. If the U.S. has indeed definitively rejected containment as an option, Washington might be unable to take advantage of a potential window of opportunity for a deal with Iran. more

Xi Jinping is in Russia as part of his first trip since becoming president of China. He will then move on to Durban for his first BRICS summit, where he will have a chance to engage with Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. Xi's choice of countries to visit on his first foreign trip is no accident -- it will be a first test of his ability to course-correct China's growing problems in foreign relations. more

Afghan President Hamid Karzai has become too big to fail, leading the U.S. to shoulder much of the burden for Afghan security. But given the reality of the impending withdrawal, it is important to focus less on whether a friendly government can be preserved in Kabul and more on how to ensure that any government -- even a Taliban government -- does not undertake policies that damage key U.S. interests. more

Most of the U.S. foreign policy community assumes that relations between the United States and Venezuela can only improve in the aftermath of Hugo Chavez's death. But Washington cannot take anything for granted, and calibrating its policy for the transition will be a challenge. Embracing the opposition could doom it, but doing too little opens the U.S. to criticism it has missed a vital opportunity. more

While U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov achieved no major breakthroughs on any of the contentious issues in the U.S.-Russia bilateral relationship during their first face-to-face meeting, the two men seemed to establish the basis for a good working relationship. This will be important if any vestige of the Obama administration's Russia reset is to endure. more

The so-called shale revolution might finally achieve what every U.S. president since Richard Nixon has placed on the top list of strategic priorities: energy independence. If this occurs, what happens to the current consensus about the desirability of American global leadership? Energy independence raises the question of whether "national interest" will continue to be a guide for American action in the world. more

Warnings by defense officials about the dire consequences of defense sequestration for America’s military presence and influence abroad are primarily intended for domestic legislators. But they cannot help but have an impact on other governments as well. And how those governments choose to regard the possibility of American defense cuts could have serious implications for future U.S. grand strategy. more

The confirmation hearing for former Sen. Chuck Hagel, the nominee for the position of secretary of defense in the second-term Obama administration, focused on his past controversial statements and misstatements, rather than probing deeply into his vision for U.S. national security in the coming lean years. Specifics as to how a Secretary Hagel might structure future budgets and commitments remain elusive. more

As Hillary Clinton prepares to step down as secretary of state, the consensus is that she helped to restore America's image in the world but was not a transformational figure for U.S. diplomacy. Someone else at Foggy Bottom, it has been implied, might have accomplished more. In reality, for foreign governments seeking to deal with Washington, the secretary of state is now just one of several options. more

President Barack Obama's inaugural address was a political Rorschach test, allowing commentators from across the political spectrum to project onto it whatever they wanted to hear. In fact, despite the various and often contradictory assessments of what the president meant, the speech's bland, poll-tested, “approved for presidential use” rhetoric left every option on the proverbial table. more

We are rapidly approaching the 10th anniversary of the start of the Iraq War. The inevitable retrospectives are unlikely to include an in-depth examination of the foundational strategic assumptions that helped to make the case for war, particularly in Washington’s current hyperpartisan atmosphere. This is regrettable, because the lessons not learned from Iraq continue to impact U.S. policy to this day. more

The first iteration of President Barack Obama's approach to national security was an attempt to channel the moderate realism of the George H.W. Bush administration. The beginnings of the "Arab awakening" heralded a second phase, where the realists lost the major arguments over Libya and Egypt. His nominees this week for State and Defense could herald the third phase of Obama's national security approach. more