Vehicles drive past a giant portrait of Gen. Qasem Soleimani in downtown Tehran

While the world remains transfixed by the Israel-Hamas war, other trends that could prove as consequential for the future of the Middle East are gaining momentum. In particular, an increasingly visible transformation of identity discourses in the Gulf and Iran is setting the scene for further shocks to the regional order.

US relations with Saudi Arabia have been complicated by the prospect of nuclear weapons in the kingdom in exchange for signing the Abraham Accords.

Back in March, Saudi Arabia reportedly offered to join the Abraham Accords in exchange for the transfer of U.S. civil nuclear technology, among other things. Washington is reluctant to do so, as that technology could be used to develop nuclear weapons. But a nuclear-armed Saudi Arabia should not be particularly concerning for Washington.

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