After Yevgeny Prigozhin’s death, Russia’s long-term trajectory under Putin looks increasingly dire. The enormous complexity of Russia’s challenges is more likely to paralyze Russia’s elites in ways that will enable Putin to delay a reckoning until long after the damage he has done can no longer be fixed.
The short-lived Wagner mutiny in Russia last weekend may not demonstrate that President Vladimir Putin’s grip on power has been weakened. But it does demonstrate that the power of the Russian state he is gripping has been weakened and is an indication of how Putin’s regime is stoking dangerous tensions within Russia’s elite.
For years, Russia analysts have tried to make sense of President Vladimir Putin’s rule by reaching for comparisons with key moments in Russian history. Yet a more useful approach than looking to Russian history would be to compare the Putin regime with similar regimes over the past 70 years in Egypt, Pakistan and Yemen.
