Russia’s Georgian Gamble

Daniel Drezner makes a compelling case for the geopolitical and financial costs Russia has suffered due to its invasion of Georgia. Among the former, its embarrassing isolation as the only country (outside of Daniel Ortega’s Nicaragua) to recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Among the latter, the $21 billion that fled the Russian markets in the war’s aftermath. I agree that the decision to recognize the two breakaway provinces was a strategic error, both for the reasons Drezner identifies, but also because it wasted a pressure point the Russians could have saved for later. But I’m less convinced by an argument […]

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