Nabucco in Jeopardy, Again

Turkish President Abdullah Gul met with Turkmenistan President Gurbanguli Berdymukhamedov yesterday, and while both leaders expressed their “. . .mutual will for improving bilateral economic and commercial relations between the two countries,” no agreement was announced on whether or not Turkmeni gas will feed the proposed Nabucco pipeline that would make Turkey a gas hub connecting Central Asia with Southern and Central Europe. For Today’s Zaman (Turkey), that meant the two countries “agree to boost economic cooperation.” For RIA Novosti, citing a Turkish-language paper, that meant “Nabucco trans-Caspian gas pipeline in jeopardy.”

WPR contributing editor John Rosenthal recently wrote about the fact that the logic of the Nabucco pipeline, designed to reduce Europe’s dependence on Russian gas, doesn’t stand up without Iranian reserves feeding it. Which makes the U.S. State Dept’s sudden support for the project surprising, and its criticism of other countries for signing energy deals with Iran somewhat hypocritical.

I suppose it could be argued that participation in Nabucco could function as a carrot to try to lure Iran into adopting a more responsible regional posture. But the thing about offering carrots is that they work best when you’re not absolutely dependent on the other party to accept them.

I suppose it’s also worth noting that Iraq’s Oil Ministry has just announced a tender for a pipeline to Iran, designed to transport Iraqi crude to Iran and Iranian refined products back into Iraq. Something to think about the next time someone argues we invaded for the oil.