Diplomacy & Politics Archive

Prior to the disruptions that have swept the Middle East and North Africa since 2011, Algeria had achieved a comfortable balance between its internal and external strategic priorities. Now it faces the challenge of repositioning itself both within a region in flux and in relation to its main international alliances with France, the U.S. and — as its main supplier of arms — Russia. On the plus side, Algeria has weathered the storms of regional change well since early 2011, even if this has come at the expense of looking increasingly out of sync with the rapidity and depth of […]

In the traumatic months after the attacks of Sept. 11, the United States struggled to understand the new world it faced and to redirect its security strategy away from “rogue states” relying on conventional military power to the shadowy and ambiguous terrorist threat. Some components of the new strategy, such as augmented homeland security and increased assistance to partner states, were obvious and fell easily into place. How to use U.S. military power in an offensive way against terrorism was not so clear. The initial reaction of the Bush administration reflected the old saw that when all one has is […]

Much digital ink has been spilled over how cyber and unmanned technologies are changing the nature of war, allowing it to be fought more secretly, more subversively and with greater discretion. But the single biggest shift in the sociology of war in the past quarter-century has been not in the way it is fought, but in the relationship between its grim realities and the perceptions of those on the home front. Indeed, it is precisely the increasing visibility of ordinary warfare due to communications technology that is driving U.S. efforts to redefine the rules of engagement. And ironically, this is […]

On Sept. 30, 2011, Anwar al-Awlaki was riding in a convoy in northern Yemen’s al-Jawf province with several other suspected members of the terrorist group al-Qaida. Awlaki, a Yemeni cleric, had long been on a so-called kill list of terrorist leaders targeted by the U.S. government for elimination. On that day, two Predator drones operating in the skies above fired seven Hellfire missiles, killing Awlaki and, among others, a colleague named Samir Khan. In itself, the killing was simply another skirmish in the 10-year U.S.-led war on terror, which since Sept. 11, 2001, has stretched from Afghanistan, Pakistan and the […]

Recent fears surrounding the possible use of chemical weapons stockpiles by regime diehards in Libya and Syria, or their seizure by regional terrorists, underscore the continued danger of chemical weapons proliferation and the need to take stronger measures to oppose it. The use of a significant quantity of a chemical agent in a concentrated area can not only be extremely deadly. Because the effects of exposure to chemical agents occur rapidly and are usually extremely virulent, chemical weapons are also effective tools of psychological warfare. Moreover, under certain conditions, even a minor chemical weapons attack could cause widespread panic, leading […]

Editor’s note: This is the second of a two-part series on South African President Jacob Zuma’s political prospects as leader of both the African National Congress and South Africa. Part I examined some of Zuma’s recent successes in consolidating his political position within the party. Part II examines his weaknesses and failures, which risk undermining his future prospects. At its June policy conference in Midrand, the African National Congress (ANC) took pains to make clear that its policy discussions were a separate matter from the broader question of the party’s future leadership. That argument, however, carried little weight with analysts […]

After key security aides of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad were killed in a bombing attack last week, media coverage became saturated with pronouncements of Assad’s “imminent” fall and reports of contingency planning for the collapse of his regime. Trend Lines spoke with Andrew J. Tabler, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, and Jeffrey White, a defense fellow at WINEP, about the risks, the opportunities and the unknowns of a post-Assad Syria. According to White, the strategic opportunities include “detaching Syria from Iran’s list of allies, getting Syria out of the terrorism business and breaking Syria’s […]

On Nov. 3, 2002, America began its campaign of targeted killings in nonbattlefield settings. After a year-long manhunt, a fusion of human intelligence assets and signals intercepts pinpointed Abu Ali al-Harithi, an operational planner in the al-Qaida cell that had bombed the USS Cole in 2002, driving in a Toyota SUV in Yemen, near the border with Saudi Arabia. A CIA-controlled Predator drone climbed into position, maneuvered its nose downward and fired a single Hellfire missile, which destroyed the SUV and killed al-Harithi, along with four other Yemenis and Ahmed Hijazi, a naturalized U.S. citizen and ringleader of an alleged […]

Thanks to the Obama administration’s aggressive use of classified leaks to the press, we are encouraged to believe that President Barack Obama has engineered a revolutionary shift in both America’s geopolitical priorities and our military means of pursuing those ends. As re-election sales jobs go, it presses lukewarm-button issues, but it does so ably. But since foreign policy has never been the president’s focus, we should in turn recognize these maneuvers for what they truly are: an accommodation with inescapable domestic realities, one that at best postpones and at worst sabotages America’s needed geostrategic adjustment to a world co-managed with […]

French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius visited Algeria recently to discuss bilateral relations and the security situation in Mali. In an email interview, Laurence Aïda Ammour, a research fellow at the Bordeaux Institute for Political Science and a consultant in international security and defense at GéopoliSudconsultance, discussed French-Algerian relations. WPR: How have relations between France and Algeria evolved over the past decade in terms of trade and diplomatic ties? Laurence Aïda Ammour: Bilateral relations between France and Algeria have always gone through cycles of crisis. They also depend on personal ties between the leaders of both countries. In 2003, French President […]

On July 7-8, Muslim Fulani herdsmen reportedly attacked Christian Berom farmers in Plateau state in Nigeria’s ethnically and religiously diverse Middle Belt. The violence claimed more than 100 lives, including those of two elected officials, and displaced an estimated 5,500 persons. On July 17, an apparent reprisal targeted a Muslim school in the state capital, Jos. The cycle of Muslim-Christian violence (.pdf) in Plateau dates back to 1994. And though Nigerian authorities have depicted the conflict as primarily local, it aggravates the tone of Muslim-Christian relations across the country and embarrasses the administration of President Goodluck Jonathan, which is attempting […]

A plurality of Britons would like to leave the European Union if they could, with 48 percent supporting an EU exit against just 31 percent who would prefer to stay. However, most of them — 63 percent — don’t think this will happen. That’s perhaps the only optimistic figure of a recently released Chatham House and YouGov poll, showing that Britons understand and are resigned to the key consequence of globalization: Cooperation and multilateralism trump bilateralism or “going it alone.” Thus, the U.K. is not yet completely a lost cause for continental Europe. But it is close, as the rest […]

Editor’s note: This is the first of a two-part series on South African President Jacob Zuma’s political prospects as leader of both the African National Congress and South Africa. Part I examines some of Zuma’s recent successes in consolidating his political position within the party. Part II will examine his weaknesses and failures, which risk undermining his future prospects. The defining moment in South African politics this year will be the national conference of the ruling African National Congress (ANC) in Mangaung in December. The conference will chart the ANC’s future direction and will elect the leadership to guide both […]

Amid questions over the policy direction of a Muslim Brotherhood-governed Egypt, newly elected President Mohamed Morsi met with two rival Palestinian leaders this week. Morsi met with Mahmoud Abbas, the Fatah president of the Palestinian Authority, on Wednesday and with Khaled Meshaal, the leader of Hamas, which controls Gaza, on Thursday. “If you are Abbas, you are very concerned about the strengthening and emboldening of Hamas,” said David Schenker, director of the Program on Arab Politics at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. He emphasized that the meeting between Morsi and Meshaal marked the first meeting between Hamas, the […]

In a significant foreign policy breakthrough, the Russian Duma voted last week to ratify the country’s accession to the World Trade Organization, resolving an issue that had been a point of contention between Russia and the West since the 1990s. Russia’s accession negotiations, which opened in 1995 and were completed in November 2011, were the longest and arguably the thorniest in WTO history. Economic and political disputes, not to mention the Russia-Georgia War of 2008, repeatedly delayed Russian accession. With Russia now set to formally enter the WTO in August, it is worth examining what the move will mean for […]

It looks like the vaunted U.S. pivot to Asia is going to be delayed. The ongoing conflict in Syria and the escalation of tensions with Iran make it highly unlikely that Washington will be able to shift away from its long-held priority focus on the Middle East anytime soon. When the Asia pivot was first floated by the Obama administration in 2009, it was based on a series of strategic assessments about the likely future of the Middle East. There was guarded optimism that a combination of effective sanctions and deft diplomacy could produce a workable deal on the Iranian […]

The head of a Chinese military delegation visiting the Seychelles earlier this month said that his country was interested in developing closer military ties with the Indian Ocean nation. In an email interview, Jonathan Holslag, a researcher at the Brussels Institute of Contemporary China Studies, discussed China’s relations with the Seychelles. WPR: What is the current state of China-Seychelles political, trade and military relations? Jonathan Holslag: The partnership is characterized more by great expectations on the part of the Seychelles rather than a great Chinese presence. China’s visibility is growing. More tourists are discovering the island states, and some private […]