Frank-Walter Steinmeier and Risk Assessment

In an interview that was published yesterday (Dec. 17) in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ), German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier remarks that in light of the findings of the most recent American National Intelligence Estimate, the “urgency” [Zeitdruck] of finding a solution to the problem of the Iranian nuclear program has been “reduced.” The remark perfectly illustrates the dangers that the 2007 NIE involves: What if the assessment of the Iranian nuclear program contained in the report should turn out to be wrong? After all, it is, in effect, the very premise of the 2007 assessment that the 2005 assessment […]

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