Tomorrow marks the second anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, so we’re taking today’s newsletter to look at the state of the war—and the questions that will shape its trajectory going forward.
For Ukraine, the military situation is grim. There have been few breakthroughs since 2022, and last year’s long-anticipated counteroffensive largely failed. Meanwhile, political gridlock in Washington has prevented the U.S. from sending the military aid that Ukraine desperately needs, not only to pressure Russian forces offensively but also to defend the territory currently under Kyiv’s control.
At the same time, Ukraine has remained politically cohesive and societally resilient, even after two years of war that have devastated the country physically. Should the conflict enter a lengthy stalemate, as seems likely absent some major new development, or if Russia should achieve a breakthrough, the decisive factor for Kyiv will be whether it can maintain that cohesion and resilience.