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The Realist Prism: Is NATO Moving the Goalposts in Libya?

Friday, July 29, 2011

Is it time for NATO to begin wrapping up its Libya operation? The observance of Ramadan will begin in a few days, and even though Islamic tradition permits those involved in combat to be exempted from the requirements of the fast, most analysts expect a dramatic slowdown in major combat operations on the part of both pro-Gadhafi and anti-government forces during August. While NATO spokesmen have indicated that sorties will continue to be flown during the holiday, the pace of combat will lessen. This, in turn, may reinforce conditions on the ground, which Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm. Mike Mullen characterized earlier this week as a "stalemate." And that was before the death under mysterious circumstances of former Interior Minister Abdul Fatah Younis, who was serving as overall military commander of the rebellion, raised the possibility that splits in rebel ranks might complicate the efforts to overthrow Moammar Gadhafi.

Even if the conflict picks up steam again after Ramadan ends on Aug. 30, the alliance will then have to confront a new deadline: The NATO mission's mandate will draw to a close on Sept. 27 unless it is explicitly renewed or extended, a decision that would require unanimous consent of all the alliance's members. Enthusiasm for the operation was never that strong among key NATO states such as Germany and Turkey, and public support for the mission in Britain and France has been eroding. French President Nicolas Sarkozy will want to bring operations to a successful close well in advance of the April 2012 presidential contest, while the government of British Prime Minister David Cameron will want to be in a position to proclaim that the conflict is winding down by the time it must again submit the biannual "bill" for the Libya operation to parliamentary scrutiny. ...

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