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Ethiopian soldiers, silhouetted against a bright sun, march with national flags attached to their rifles. Ethiopian soldiers march with national flags attached to their rifles at a rally to show support for the Ethiopian armed forces, at Meskel square in downtown Addis Ababa, Nov. 7, 2021 (AP photo).

Getting to a Sustainable Endgame in Ethiopia Will Be an Uphill Climb

Monday, Nov. 22, 2021

As rebel forces of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front and the Oromo Liberation Army close in on Ethiopia’s capital, Addis Ababa, domestic factions and international mediators are quickly revising their calculations regarding how the war may end and the kind of political order that could emerge in its aftermath.  

Earlier this month, almost a year since the conflict began, the TPLF and the OLA announced they were forming an alliance with seven other opposition groups, with the goal of ousting Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed—whether by force or through a negotiated settlement—and installing a transitional government. In light of their recent successes on the battlefield, members of this new coalition may have little inclination to negotiate with the current government.  ...

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