While Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika may return to Algeria following treatment in France for a mini-stroke he suffered in late-April, his health makes it unlikely that he will be able to stand for re-election in Algeria’s presidential ballot set for next year. Whoever does eventually succeed him will face a host of economic, societal, governance and security challenges. more
Since late-March, when the rebel coalition Seleka took power in the Central African Republic (CAR), security has broken down in the country. U.N. Representative Margaret Vogt recently stated that CAR has entered “a state of anarchy." With Seleka struggling to turn military triumph into durable rule, CAR’s neighbors will likely see an increase in the circulation of refugees, fighters and weapons. more
A group of jihadi militants with links to al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb has infiltrated western Tunisia, with security implications for both Tunisia and Algeria. To combat them, Tunisia’s military needs better equipment, which the government has promised to deliver. But it is not clear whether Tunis will pursue the deeper military and economic reforms needed to quell the terrorist threat in the long term. more
In late-April, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon tapped Nicholas Kay, a former British ambassador and Africa director at the U.K. Foreign and Commonwealth Office, as his new special representative in Somalia. When Kay takes up his duties as the head of the new U.N. Assistance Mission in Somalia on June 3, he will be presented with risks and opportunities at a time of renewed hope and momentum for Somalia. more
In an email interview, Arthur Boutellis, a research fellow and adviser to the Peace Operations and Africa programs at the International Peace Institute, described the state of Cote d’Ivoire’s security sector reform and the obstacles to further progress. more
A series of violent incidents between opposition protesters and security forces in Conakry have highlighted the challenges still impeding Guinea’s political transition since the death in 2008 of longtime leader Lansana Conte. Despite progress toward stability, Guinea lacks a functioning legislature, is beset by ethnic tension and is stifled by corruption, leaving the outcome of the transition uncertain. more
With French forces drawing down in Mali, the MNLA, a separatist Tuareg rebel group, remains in control of the northeastern part of the country, with French support. Meanwhile, there are still no political solutions on the table to address the underlying causes of the conflict that broke out in 2012. As a result, the relationship among Bamako, Paris and the Tuareg remains precarious and characterized by mistrust. more
Africa has never been central to America's global security strategy. From Washington's vantage, the continent has always been less important than other regions. The official approach has normally been one of relative indifference with a bit of aid when things got really bad. In the past year, though, several factors have increased the attention being paid to Africa by American policymakers and military leaders. more
Every year hundreds of rhinos and thousands of elephants are slaughtered and their parts sold on the black market. For decades, a lack of political attention has made it difficult to confront this ongoing carnage. Now, with a wider range of stakeholders from across the security, development and conservation communities motivated to tackle the problem, innovative partnerships could emerge to counter poaching. more
In an email interview, Jennifer Giroux, a senior researcher at the Center for Security Studies at ETH Zurich who specializes in conflict in energy-producing and transit regions, explained what the process of Nigeria’s granting amnesty to Boko Haram might entail, as well as the obstacles it faces. more
The death of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi in August 2012 marked the end of an era in contemporary Ethiopian politics. Since 1991, Meles had headed the powerful ruling party that led the country through a massive transformation. But his tenure was not a period of one-man rule, nor does his death create either a political vacuum or an opportunity for liberal reform, as power never rested in Meles’ hands alone. more
The U.N. may soon be launching a new wave of peace operations, beginning with a mission in Mali in July. Yet the U.N. still has a huge amount of unfinished business to complete in countries where peacekeepers are already deployed. As U.N. officials look for the resources for these new missions, they will face pressure to downsize existing ones, even if that means leaving some fragile states’ problems unresolved. more
The 2,400 Chadian forces in Mali have seen some of the heaviest fighting in the war there. As France passes responsibility for securing northern Mali to African partners, Chad has positioned itself as a regional power. But different outlooks between Chad and Western powers, as well as instability in Chad’s immediate neighbor the Central African Republic (CAR), complicate Chad’s ability to project leadership. more
Zimbabwe’s ongoing political and economic decline has severely tested South Africa’s ability to balance its often-contradictory foreign policy imperatives of commitment to democracy and human rights on the one hand and African liberation solidarity, tinged with anti-Western sentiment, on the other. With Zimbabwe on the cusp of fresh elections, this issue is set to return to the top of the South African agenda. more
Africa’s relatively rapid growth rates, improved fiscal and debt management and improving political stability are forming an image of a “rising Africa” ripe for international investment. And despite remaining high risks, global investors increasingly find Africa’s potential returns compelling. But the looming question is whether Africa’s growth spurt and related investor interest are sustainable. more
In an email interview, Harry Rhea, assistant professor of criminal justice at Florida International University and author of the book “The United States and International Criminal Tribunals: An Introduction,” discussed U.S.-ICC cooperation and how the U.S. can bolster the court without joining it. more
Discussions about U.N. peacekeeping often get bogged down in technical details, rather than tackling big strategic questions. This is true of the U.N. Security Council’s decision to mandate an “intervention brigade” in the DRC. A lot of talk has focused on the council’s unusually aggressive language, with less on the brigade’s role in the complex political struggle for access to the DRC’s natural resources. more
While they may not garner the same headlines as China’s energy politics in the region or U.S. counterterrorism work in the Horn of Africa and the Sahel, Japan’s efforts across Africa are increasing in depth and scope. As the dynamic states of Africa continue to evolve and develop a range of international partnerships, Tokyo should keep its eye trained on maintaining a strong economic presence on the continent. more
Now nearing the midpoint of his first full term in office, Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan will count on the advantages of incumbency and party dominance in seeking another term when Nigeria votes again in 2015. Yet insecurity, corruption and stalled policy implementation have provoked broad criticism, and the remainder of his term is likely to be characterized by high levels of political tension. more
In 2012, Foreign Policy and the Fund for Peace ranked Zimbabwe the fifth most likely country to fail. Yet, despite its numerous challenges, Zimbabwe has not collapsed, and Robert Mugabe continues to maintain his grip on power. With elections expected during 2013, all indications suggest that Mugabe will run for re-election and win. How is a country whose government is seemingly so isolated from the rest of the world able not just to survive, but to prosper? more
A new kind of maritime crime is on the rise in the waters off West Africa: the short-term hijacking of oil tankers and the theft and black market sale of their cargos. Piracy is entwining with other forms of transnational organized crime in West Africa, including weapons trafficking, human and drug smuggling and illegal fishing, producing a developmental crisis for the Gulf of Guinea’s littoral states. more
