Iain Mills

As U.S. President Barack Obama and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, begin a three-day informal summit, commentators are hoping that a personal rapport between the two leaders might have significant effects on broader bilateral relations. But a major strategic shift is dependent on the two sides overcoming persistent disagreements and managing domestic pressures that limit the scope for a bold new departure. more

China's recent incursion into Indian territory along their disputed border in eastern Kashmir brings to the fore the unpredictability of Chinese foreign policy implementation and Beijing's frequent recourse to low-level aggression. Despite a general trend toward deepening cooperation between China and India, the incident lowers hopes that China's new leadership will clear up uncertainty in bilateral relations. more

While China's new leadership seems likely to continue with domestic policy reforms, in the foreign policy sphere, initial signals have been less encouraging. The external challenges facing officials in Beijing involve assuaging the concerns of a far greater range of constituents than on domestic issues. Here the evidence suggests that China's foreign policy is becoming more aggressive and overtly nationalistic. more

Despite the sense of disappointment surrounding China's leadership transition since the November party congress, policy formulation has moved ahead, even as incoming President Xi Jinping actively forges his public persona. Along with a more detailed picture of elite politics during the run-up to the handover, clearer signals about the new leadership’s domestic policy priorities are gradually emerging. more

After much fanfare and stagecraft, China's leadership transition ultimately ended with a distinct sense of anticlimax. The seven men who will rule China are, as reported by the South China Morning Post two weeks before the official announcement, largely older, conservative cadres. This is a group unlikely to implement the kind of reforms to China's politics, economy and society that many had hoped for. more

Following considerable speculation that it would be postponed or even cancelled, the 18th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will convene in Beijing on Nov. 8. Although key issues and personnel appointments remain unsettled, the announcement of the November congress coincides with other signals that what has appeared at times to be gridlock at the upper political echelons is easing. more

Recent years have seen a significant increase in both labor disputes and regulatory burden in the resources sector across the world. The ongoing mining sector unrest in South Africa suggests that these pressures continue to mount and that previous policy responses may prove insufficient. Moreover, the sector could be entering a more contentious phase characterized by a higher incidence of resource nationalism. more

Few countries have benefited more from China’s rise and the global commodities boom than Australia, whose newfound wealth and resource endowments have driven an increase in its strategic significance within the Asia-Pacific. But with China's commodities demand fluctuating, concerns are rising that Australia might be facing an economic bust that could curtail the country's integration with Asia. more

For China, diversification away from the dollar is a strategic priority. Nowhere is this shift more strategically significant than in commodities markets, where Beijing is building out the infrastructure required to establish the RMB as the dominant currency for commodities in Asia. more

Following a period of relatively aggressive behavior from 2009 to 2011, recent events suggest that Beijing is pursuing a new strategy on the region's high seas, perhaps in response to Washington’s Asia pivot. Going into this week's ASEAN summit, where hopes for a maritime code of conduct are rising, it seems China would need to radically alter this strategy to participate fully in any such arrangement. more

China’s fifth-generation leadership will assume office later this year at a critical juncture in the country’s socio-economic development and against a backdrop of weak global economic growth and growing geopolitical uncertainty. Though China’s rise continued has been a feature of geopolitical forecasting in recent years, the potential for a less-rosy scenario cannot be excluded.
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As China approaches its once-a-decade senior leadership transition, structural weaknesses in the country’s economic model are becoming more apparent, even as the momentum for progressive reforms appears to be increasing. A best-case scenario for the fifth-generation leadership assumes a continuation of both trends, leading to reinvigoration of the Chinese economy and accelerated social development.
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While China's much-hyped clean energy drive has become bogged down, the U.S. has quietly effected a genuine energy revolution that creates huge cost advantages for America’s manufacturing base going forward. The changing international energy market dynamics present Washington with an opportunity to fundamentally reorient its foreign policy approach toward a broad range of actors in the decades to come. more

Senior leaders from China, Japan and South Korea met in Beijing last weekend, where they agreed to work toward establishing a free-trade zone, the latest in a flurry of trilateral economic deals in recent months. But despite these developments, the geopolitical situation in Northeast Asia remains fragmented, and a multilateral architecture capable of containing latent regional threats is some way off. more

As China prepares for a once-in-a-decade change of leadership, the ouster of Bo Xilai and a series of significant financial reforms have been widely seen as signs that reformist elements in Beijing are in the ascendency. This analysis may be correct, but it needs to be tempered with a broader look at the Chinese political and policy landscape, which shows that reforms still lag in multiple key areas. more

A lack of institutionalization means that Chinese policy approaches are often fragmented and factionalized, both in terms of ideological formulation and implementation. Today, China's polity seems at a crossroads, no longer wedded to the heavily centralized, introverted strategic planning structures of the socialist years, but as yet unable to articulate responses to the dynamic transnational threats it faces in the 21st century. more

Economic volatility and a restrictive political system have prevented Vietnam from fulfilling its potential as a significant Southeast Asian actor. But with the “China+1” effect likely to gather momentum, and amid strong signals of reform emanating from Hanoi, there is renewed cause for optimism. The opportunity now being presented to Vietnam may be too compelling for even the hard-liners to resist. more

China's policy of non-interference in the affairs of other nations fails to protect its expanding overseas interests and has caused a trust deficit with regard to China’s intentions at an intergovernmental level. This raises the question of how long the non-interference policy can be sustained, and whether Chinese interests would be better served by abandoning it for a less rigid position.
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With Western investors on the back foot in the past year, Chinese sovereign wealth funds have expanded their ownership of strategic overseas assets. While Chinese foreign investment is seen by many as a cause for geopolitical concern, these entities are becoming increasingly sophisticated and credible, representing one of the most viable mechanisms for restoring balance to global trade and investment flows. more

There is growing evidence that China is entering a new phase in its economic development, even as deterioration in the global macroeconomic environment has limited Beijing's policy options for reform and reduced its margin for error. With domestic systemic financial stress and social tension also both ticking upward, 2012 could prove to be one of the most challenging years yet in China's economic re-emergence. more